ISSUES and CHALLENGES for the ASIA and PACIFIC REGION by Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center
East Asian Population People (millions) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Year East-West Center, Future of Population East Asia S.E. Asia E
Fertility Decline Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female 7 6 5 4 3 2 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 1 0 East Asia Southeast Asia East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.
Flight from Marriage: (Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39) 39) 14 25 12 20 10 8 15 6 10 4 2 0 1970 1990 2000 Indonesia Thailand S. Korea Japan 5 0 1970 1990 2000 Jakarta Seoul Hong Kong Bangkok Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The Flight from Marriage in South-East and East Asia
Population Composition Pakistan, 2000 Japan, 2050 Pakistan, Pakistan, 2000 2000 Source: Future of Population in Asia, East-West Center, 2002.
Growth of Elderly Percent of Population Over Age 75 India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand S. Korea 2000 2050 Singapore Japan 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source: East-West Center, Future of Population
Urban Populations: 1950-2030 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 World Africa Asia Europe Northern America 1950 1975 2005 2030 UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects
East Asian Urban Areas of over 10 Million Population 1950 Tokyo, 11.3 million 1975 Tokyo, 26.3 million Seoul-Inchon 12 million Shanghai, 11.4 million 2003 Tokyo, 35 million Seoul-Inchon 20 million Shanghai, 12.8 million Jakarta, 12.3 million Manila, 11.5 million Osaka-Kobe, 11.0 million Beijing 10.8 million, 2015 Tokyo, 36 million Seoul-Inchon, 22 million Jakarta, 18 million Manila, 15 million Shanghai, 15 million Beijing, 12 million Osaka-Kobe, 11.0 million Tianjin, 11 million Bangkok, 10 million Sources: Various, data should be taken as indicative of trends, definitions of urban boundaries may vary
Asia Pacific Disaster Map Shanghai Beijing Seoul Osaka Tokyo yo Manila Jakarta Source: Pacific Disaster Pacific Disaster Center Center
Global Growth: Lower and Middle Income Countries: 1990-2005 Per capita annual GDP growth 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990-2003 2000-2004 2004-2005 E Asia- Pacific S. Asia M. East and N. Africa Latin America Sub- Saharan Africa Source: World Bank, World Development Report, 2005, 2006, 2007
Poverty Estimates: Developing East Asia-Pacific 1200 1116 1000 Million people 800 600 400 200 472 214 748 260 1990 2002 2015 0 14 Less than $1/day Less than $2/day World Bank, 2006
Labor Productivity Growth 1993-2003 WORLD: 10.9 percent Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent International Labor Organization
Growth of Tertiary Enrollment (Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2005) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1985 1995 2005 India Source: World Bank Indonesia China Malaysia Philippines Thailand Japan Korea USA
Education: Percent of Tertiary Age Population in Tertiary Institutions, 2004 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Indonesia China Philippines Hong Kong Thailand Japan Female Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics Male
Challenges Imbalances Income Inequality Health Issues Resource Issues Security Issues Governance Issues
Asia Pacific Current Account Imbalances (US bn) 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 -800-1000 2005 2006 2007 2008 East Asia 423 528.5 588.7 675.8 US -771.4-823.8-779.4-796.8
China: Global Trade Surplus 250 200 150 B illions U S $s 100 50 0 2004 Jan 2004 July 2005 Jan 2005 July 2006 Jan 2006 July 2007 Jan\
Gross Manufacturing Exports Percent of World Manufacturing Exports 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Japan China NICs ASEAN India Source: WTO Trade Statistics, WDI and Treasury, cited by John Edwards, HSBC, April 2007
Gini Co-efficients 0.7 0.6 Brazil 0.5 0.4 0.3 USA Mexico Japan China Brazil Mexico USA 0.2 China Japan 0.1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 Source: Based on World Bank, years approximate
Health Issues Traditional Health Risks New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis Chronic conditions and diseases associated with life style changes
Poultry Density Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series
11-Year Year-Old Children s s Fitness Japan 9.4 9.2 Seconds to Run 50 Meters Boys Girls 35 Average Soft-Ball Throw (Meters) 9 8.8 8.6 30 25 8.4 8.2 1987 2006 20 15 1987 2006 Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007
Children s s Leisure Activities Eight to Ten Years Olds in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Bogor, and Manila Less than 1 in 4 children participate in sports, outdoor games or physical exercises daily Common leisure activities are playing computer games, reading, and watching tv Children have physical education lessons at school only 1 or twice a week Girls less active than boys at all ages Source: Asian Food Information Centre, Singapore
Global Prevalence of Obesity in Adult Males With examples of the top 5 Countries in each Region North America USA 31% Mexico 19% Canada (self report) 17% Guyana 14% Bahamas 14% % Obese 0-9.9% 10-14.9% 14.9% 15-19.9% 19.9% 20-24.9% 24.9% 25-29.9% 29.9% 30% South East Asia & Pacific Region Nauru 80% Tonga 47% Cook Island 41% French Polynesia 36% Samoa 33% With the limited data available, prevalence's are not age standardised. Self reported surveys may underestimate true prevalence. Sources and references are available from the IOTF. International Obesity TaskForce, London January 2007 Self Reported data
Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030 2030 80 70 60 151% increase 148% increase Millions people 50 40 30 104% 2000 2030 20 10 0 India China Other Asia Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.
Global Suicide Rates World Health Organization
Annual Renewable Water Supply Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, One World, One Well
Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006
Regional Petroleum Deficits Millions of Barrels per day 30 25 20 15 10 Europe N. America Asia-Pacific 5 0 1973 2001 2020 Adapted from Congressional Research Service
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Activities - 2004 30% Other 17% China 22% USA FSU 9% J Europe 5% 17% USA FSU Japan Europe China ROW IEA International Energy Annual E I A
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita GNI (ooos) Emissions in metric tons 2002 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 USA Japan Sing Korea Mal China VN World Bank GNI per capita Emissions per capita
Asian Air Pollution Success Stories Tokyo: has lower air pollution problems than American or European cities. Efficient transportation Bangkok: has reduced air pollution significantly by eliminating 2 stroke motorcycles Singapore: Strict controls, especially on automobiles