Spillover Effects and National Development Goals in Jordan: The Challenges of a Neighborhood in Protracted Crises

Experts Group Meeting Paris Oct. 20 th -21 st 2014 Spillover Effects and National Development Goals in Jordan: The Challenges of a Neighborhood in Protracted Crises Experts Group Meeting On: Formal/Informal Institutions for Citizen Engagement for implementing the Post 2015 Development Agenda Khalid W. Wazani (Ph.D. Economics) Chief Economist Strategist Issnaad Consulting

Table of Contents Jordan Economy: Challenges Overview Refugees Problem in Jordan in Retrospect Status of Syrian Refugees Economic & Humanitarian Facts on Syrian Refugees Proposed Engagement Policies Concluding Remarks 2

Jordan s Socio-Economic Distortions in the Verge of the Crisis Fiscal Deficit 16% of GDP Unemployment 13% and Poverty 14% Jordan s Economy Public Debit 70% of GDP Trade Deficit 33% of GDP 3

Refugees Influx Since 1948 Year Population # Refugees % to Pop. 1948 400,000 100,000 25% 1967 1,278,416 380,000 30% 1990 3,170,000 300,000 9.5% 2003 5,164,000 750,000 14.5% 2011 6,508,271 1500 0.02% 2012 6,740,000 230,000 3.4% 2013 7,300,000 952,000 13% 4

Figures and Issues on the Syrian Refugees The Crisis Started in March 2011 with 11 People, Escalated to around 900 Thousand by Dec. 2013. 80% of Refugees are not in Refugee Camps but rather all over the country. 56% of the Refugees are in northern cities of Irbid and Mafraq (Bordering Cities). The Recent Figure of 2014 Talked about over 600 thousand Person officially registered and around half a million of non-registered residents. 5

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Economic & Humanitarian Facts on Syrian Refugees Receiving over 900 Thousand Refugees Means an Immediate Increase of 13% in Population. (Jordan s Natural Population Growth Rate is 2.2%) 80% of Refugees are not in Caps (They Are All over the Country) A good number of refugees are not Officially Registered. Over 50% of the refugees are below 17 years old. 51% of the refugees are Females 10

Humanitarian Challenges on Syrian Refugees The Main Humanitarian Requirements of such Demographic Structure are:- Child Protection Health Care Education Nutrition Women Protection Local Communities Acceptance and Engagement is a must 11

Economic Challenges Facts on Syrian Refugees The Main Economic Challenges of Hhosting such a Demographic Structure are:- Infrastructural Challenges Job Creation Budget Pressure Balance of Payments Challenges Poverty Alleviation Efforts Economic Planning for Engaging Economically Active Refugees is not an Easy Task for Jordan Under its Current Economic Situation Economic Capabilities of Hosting Communities 12

Some Remarks on the Syrian Refugees The Syrian Refugees Issue is not a Short Term One and Re-Building Syria Is Not Expected to Start Soon According to a Well Informed Source Over 1.5 million House has been Destroyed so far in Syrian. (the economy used to build 87k house annually in Syria) The Similarity of The Syrian Refugees is Simulated Around the Palestinian Refugees not the Iraqi One. Efforts Need to be Co-integrated and Coordinated Among Local, Regional and International Formal & Informal Donors to Help Dealing with the Short and Long term Ramifications of the Crisis. 13

Main Challenges Facing Host Communities Challenges Related to Waste Management & Environment (92% of the Host Municipalities are Affected) Challenges Related to Water Availability and Quality (64% of host Municipalities are affected). Jordan is the Third Poorest Country in Water Resources. Challenges Related to Infrastructure (50% of Host Municipalities are Affected) Challenges Related to Healthcare and Education (52% of Host Municipalities are Affected) 14

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Engagement Framework Short Term Creating Business Interests Between the two Parties Bringing some Windfalls to Hosting Communities Long Term Hosting Rebuilding Businesses Participating Directly in Rebuilding Efforts. Keeping Business Partnership 16

Engagement of Formal & Informal Sectors Formal Sector Informal Sector - Government & Public Institutions - Local, Regional, & International Bodies - Over 3600 Associations in Jordan - Many Regional 7 International Associations are Involved - Mainly Involved in Direct Financial Support - Both UNHCR & Jordan Government Announce insufficiency of Contributions - Involved in Financial and inkind Assistance. - Mostly Unorganized Effort 17

Some Remarks on Engagement Policies Informal Sector Involvement is Thought to be Unorganized, Lacks Proper Coordination, and Unneeded in Certain Cases (Waist of Resources) Formal Sector Contributions are much Below the Expectations of UNHCR (at least by 25%) and that of the Government of Jordan (around 50% Less than Expected) 18

Jordan and MDG in the verge of 2015 Jordan is Among the 88+ Countries that Carried National Worldwide Consultation. Jordan is One of 10 Arab Countries Who were Selected to Run the Post-2015 National Consultations The Syrian Refugees Crisis Definitely has Substantial Spillover Ramification on Jordan MDG Efforts. 19

The MDG Eight Goals for 2015 & the Refugees Crisis in Jordan MDG 1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote gender equality and empower women 4. Reduce child mortality 5. Improve maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Develop a global partnership for development Syrian Refugees Spillover Impact 1. Highly vely affected 2. Minimal 3. Neutral on Jordanian Females 4. Indications of -ve Impact 5. Highly -vely Affected 6. Highly likely of -ve Impact 7. Highly vely Affected 8. Somehow +ve Impact. 20

Concluding Remarks An International Fund for Humanitarian-Economic Support Should be put in Place to Deal with Syrian Refugees Engagement Related Issues. (Formal & Informal Sector Should Contribute) Direct Assistance (especially in-kind) are Becoming a Burden on the Refugees and the Economy: Much more than Needed and are Mostly Smuggled to the Market (Black Market & Corruption). National, Regional, and International Private Sector Should Take Place in Supporting Refugees Challenges Through CSR Funds, with Special Attention to Engaging Refugees in Income Generating Projects (SMEs & MSEs). 21

Thank You Dr. Khalid W. Wazani kwazani@orange.jo kwazani@issnaad.com Twitter: @Khwazani 22