NEWS RELEASE gers Views on Change at City Hall, September 2014 SOME HOPEFUL, OTHERS CYNICAL ABOUT NEXT CITY COUNCIL gers Are Split on Likelihood Of Change Coming To Civic Politics, But Are Not Likely to Sweep Out Incumbent Council Candidates FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Some elections bring expectations of major change, with voters likely to cast out the old and elect new, fresh faces. A Free Press-CTV survey conducted by Probe Research Inc. reveals that while gers are split on whether City Council will be transformed after the October 22 nd election, they do not have a great appetite for removing incumbent councillors. After a tumultuous year filled with revelations of cost overruns for civic projects and other issues pertaining to transparency and accountability in the City of, gers were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the notion that no matter which candidates are elected on October 22 nd, things will remain the same at City Hall. The survey shows that slightly more than one-half of gers (53%) are hopeful that change will come to how the city does business. This includes 18 percent who strongly disagree that it will be business as usual at City Hall and an additional 35 percent who moderately disagree. More than four-in-ten gers, on the other hand, are dubious about the prospects of wholesale change occurring at City Hall (43%, including 15% who strongly agree that nothing will change after October 22 nd and an additional 28% who moderately agree). Four percent were unsure or did not respond. Page 1
Expectation of Change at City Hall 7. I am now going to read you some statements. For each one, I would like you to tell me if you strongly agree, moderately agree, moderately disagree or strongly disagree: No matter which candidates we elect on October 22, nothing will change at City Hall. (n=602) 100% 80% 60% 43% 53% Moderately Strongly 40% 28% 35% 20% 0% 15% 18% Agree ("Civic Cynics") Disagree ("Municipal Optimists") Base: adults aged 18 years and older. Those who are more likely to be Municipal Optimists include: Residents of the Core area (60% strongly or moderately disagree that nothing will change at City Hall, versus 46% each in northwest and northeast ). Younger adults aged 18-34 years (62%, versus 50% among those aged 35-54 years and 48% among those aged 55 years and over). University and college graduates (60%, versus 43% among those with a Grade 12 diploma or less). Those who are more likely to be Civic Cynics include: Residents of northeast (51% strongly or moderately agree that things will remain the same, versus 34% in the Core area). Older and middle-aged adults (46% among those aged 55 years and over and 48% among those aged 35-54 years, versus 35% among those aged 18-34 years). Those with a high school diploma or less (53%, versus 36% among those who have completed post-secondary education). Page 2
CITIZENS EXPECTATIONS OF CHANGE AT CITY HALL -- September 2014 -- How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement: no matter which candidates we elect on October 22 nd, nothing will change at City Hall? Total Northwest Northeast Southeast Southwest (n=602) (n=129) (n=112) (n=108) (n=126) Agree 43 49 51 42 41 34 Strongly 15 15 14 14 11 20 Moderately 28 34 37 28 30 14 Disagree 53 46 46 56 58 60 Strongly 18 14 8 22 22 23 Moderately 35 32 38 34 36 37 Core Area (n=126) Gender Age Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+ (Base) (n=288) (n=314) (n=176) (n=230) (n=167) Agree 46 41 36 48 46 Strongly 17 13 9 15 20 Moderately 29 28 27 33 26 Disagree 52 53 62 49 47 Strongly 20 15 24 12 17 Moderately 32 38 38 37 30 Education Income HS or Some Post-Sec. <$30K $30K- $60K- $100K+ Less Post-Sec. Grad $59K $99K (Base) (n=145) (n=129) (n=319) (n=91)* (n=106) (n=174) (n=130) Agree 53 51 36 39 45 38 38 Strongly 22 14 12 19 19 18 5 Moderately 31 37 24 20 26 30 33 Disagree 43 47 59 55 52 50 60 Strongly 15 17 18 13 22 13 23 Moderately 28 30 41 42 30 37 37 Provincial Party Preference Home Ownership Children at Home NDP PC Liberal Own Rent Yes No (Base) (n=173) (n=160) (n=94)* (n=467) (n=119) (n=181) (n=419) Agree 38 50 45 44 44 43 43 Strongly 12 17 7 15 16 11 16 Moderately 26 33 38 29 28 32 27 Disagree 57 47 53 53 53 51 54 Strongly 22 17 14 17 21 11 21 Moderately 35 30 39 36 32 40 33 *Caution: Small Base Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Page 3
gers Are Not Inclined To Vote Out Incumbents In 11 of the city s 15 wards, incumbent councillors have placed their names on the ballot in this year s municipal election. The only races where the incumbent candidate is not seeking re-election are in the competition for mayor and in the council contests in Charleswood-Tuxedo-Whyte Ridge, St. Vital, St. Norbert and St. James-Brooklands. gers were asked if they feel more inclined or less inclined to vote for those who have been in a position of power during the past four years, or if some of the issues pertaining to integrity and openness at City Hall make no difference as to whether or not they will vote for an incumbent candidate on October 22 nd. The following graph shows that only one-in-five voters (22%) are less likely to vote for incumbent candidates because of concerns pertaining to integrity and transparency at City Hall. A similar proportion (18%) are more likely to vote for incumbent council candidates because of these issues, while one-half of those surveyed (50%) indicated that it makes no difference in terms of which candidate they cast a ballot for. Nine percent of those surveyed were unsure or did not respond. Integrity and Impact on Incumbents 6. Recently, the City of has dealt with issues related to openness and integrity. How, if at all, do these issues affect your choice of which candidates to elect for mayor and council? Do these issues: a.) Make you less likely to vote for candidates who are current and former members of council; b.) Make you more likely to vote for candidates who are current and former members of council; c.) It makes no difference (n=602) 60% 50% 40% 18% 22% 20% 9% 0% More likely to vote for incumbents No difference Less likely to vote for incumbents (Unsure) Base: adults aged 18 years and older. Page 4
Those who are more likely to vote for incumbent candidates include: Residents of southeast (33%, versus 12% among those in the Core area). Those who support the provincial NDP (27%, versus 13% each among those who prefer the provincial Progressive Conservatives and Liberals). Those earning $30,000 to $59,999 annually (31%, versus 11% among those earning less than $30,000/year). This city-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 18 th and October 1 st, 2014 among a random and representative sampling of 602 adults. With a sample of 602, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 4.0 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the city as a whole. For more information on this survey, please contact: Curtis Brown, Vice-President, Probe Research Inc. Suite 850-125 Garry Street,, Manitoba R3C 3P2 Tel.: (204) 926-6563 Cell: (204) 250-7410 E-mail: curtis@probe-research.com - 30 - Page 5