Some Thoughts on the Development of the Tianjin Binhai New Area Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D., D. Soc. Sc. (hon.) Vice-Chancellor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development, Stanford University Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA) Development and Opening-Up Seminar Hong Kong, May 9, 2006 Phone: (852) 2609-8600; Fax: (852) 2603-5230 Email:LAWRENCELAU@CUHK.EDU.HK;WebPages:HTTP://WWW.CUHK.EDU.HK/VC/
A Preview Economic Growth of Tianjin The Binhai New Area as Tianjin s Special Economic Zone Possible Measures for Enhancing the Success of the Tianjin-Binhai New Area Collaboration with Hong Kong Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2
Rates of Growth of Real GDP, Tianjin Real Growth Rates of GDP (YoY) 25 20 15 % 10 5 0 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
Imports and Exports of Goods, Tianjin 30 Imports and Exports of Goods, Tianjin 25 Imports of Goods Exports of Goods 20 US$ billions 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 4 Year
Rates of Growth of Imports and Exports of Goods, Tianjin 50 Growth Rates of Imports and Exports of Tianjin 45 40 Growth Rates of Imports Growth Rates of Exports 35 30 % 25 20 15 10 5 0 Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
The Potential of the Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA) Tianjin can become the key service hub serving northern China providing financial, logistical, shipping and transportation services. It is within easy access to both Japan and South Korea, major trading partners of China. It can also be the eastern terminal of an Eurasian land bridge. It can assume the same role as Hong Kong/Shenzhen in southern China and Shanghai in eastern China. Tianjin as a whole, including the Binhai New Area, can become a free trade zone, exempted from customs regulations and tariffs--import duties are waived unless the goods enter the rest of China. (Value-added taxes paid will be refunded upon entry into Tianjin from the rest of China.) This would greatly facilitate international division of labour between Tianjin and other economies. Tianjin is a high-technology industrial center supported by universities such as Nankai University and Tianjin University and enterprises such as Motorola and Samsung. It is also a center for heavy industry and oil and petrochemicals. Tianjin can become a regional financial center (e.g., development of a stock market for regional state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises). Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 6
Possible Measures for Enhancing the Success of the Tianjin-Binhai New Area Attract and facilitate the inflow of skilled and educated manpower, both domestic and foreign (the lessons of Shenzhen and Singapore). Legal residence should be granted to qualified individuals and their immediate family (parents, spouse, and children). Permanent residence should be made more easily available to expatriates. Human capital is the most important resource in the long run. Focus on creating sustainable employment foreign direct investors should be provided an environment in which they can operate profitably and are therefore willing to increase their investment and take a long-term view. Nothing helps to attract more foreign direct investment to Tianjin than to have successful enterprises willing to increase their investments a satisfied repeat customer is the best advertisement. One should always bear in mind that only profitable enterprises can continue to provide employment on a sustainable basis. Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 7
Possible Measures for Enhancing the Success of the Tianjin-Binhai New Area Provide Renminbi financing for foreign direct investment (FDI). (This also avoids the inflow of more foreign exchange, which China does not need, into China and improves the quality of loans of Chinese commercial banks.) Improve infrastructure (e.g. port facilities; rail connections; roads; electric power; water). Support education and R&D in basic research at universities and research institutions. Encourage and facilitate private enterprises by allowing them to enter all industries except those critical to national defense. Facilitate international providers of educational and medical services to set up operations in Tianjin (to make Tianjin attractive to expatriate workers). Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 8
Collaboration with Hong Kong Hong Kong is a pioneer in logistics and transportation services and can play an important role in the development of Tianjin into a regional logistics and transportation hub. There can be cooperation in port and airport development and management and in the provision of logistical services. Hong Kong can contribute its expertise in the development of financial services, for both Chinese and foreign enterprises, particularly in the area of international trade. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange can be used by both Chinese and foreign-invested enterprises in Tianjin to raise capital. Hong Kong can help set up alternative institutions such as arbitration panels for the speedy resolution of commercial disputes between enterprises and between enterprises and the Tianjin Government. Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 9