ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 18 JUNE 2009 HILTON SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG Policy Change in the Times of Political Succession in South Africa: Left Advocacy Meets the Global Crisis Susan Booysen Professor 18 June 2009
SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION and OUTLINE KEY QUESTION, CORE ARGUMENT STABILITY and THE NEED FOR POLICY CHANGE ELECTIONS and POLICY MANDATES DYNAMICS OF POLICY CONTESTATION and CHANGE LOOKING AHEAD
Key Question What has happened to public policy in South Africa in periods of political succession and socio-economic need? Amidst intense turmoil and potential instability, mostly to do with leadership replacement (December 2007, September 2008, April June 2009) In a country starved for more effective policy implementation, policy review, replacement and supplementation, adapted to global economic crisis
Core Argument Policy and Change: South Africa 2009 Anticipation of a left policy switch, because of advocacy, rhetoric, backing of new incumbent president but global crisis could cancel out the influence, mainstream could be eclipsing the left More interventionist state not realising, because SA state already highly involved, regulation in place, new main incumbent not in left albeit amenable, either way left influences moderate and gradualist, new incumbents in positions to implement incrementally changing Polokwane policies, aspirational and gradualist Government policies recognised as often insufficient, come with recognition and stated willingness to act, re-design of institutions, few indications of rapid turnaround Unless addressed, within limitations of financial constraints and global economic crisis, lack extension and deepening of policy can solicit instability... yet elections counter it
Context: Interactive and Unfolding Streams of Policy Influence and Power PARTY PARLIAMENT EXECUTIVE CIVIL SERVICE Midrand, Polokwane, NEC on Mbeki, reinvigoration through Election 2009, central roles of Alliance partners, Luthuli House rules, contest round 2 Compliant partner, Prague Spring in oversight, realignment to emerging leadership, some legitimate opposition, activist Parliament Post-Polokwane power shifts, Mbeki recall, Motlanthe s transitional executive, positioning for executive office, postwar Cabinet plus new battle lines, reshaping of architecture (in-progress), functional confusion and delays Partial purges, limbo and paralysis, directive influence of party over state, state reshaping lags behind announced intentions, capacity-and-skills curse hovers over the new
SECTION 2 PERCEPTIONS OF INSTABILITY THE LEFT VS POLICY DEFICITS
Concerns and Risks in Policy Turns Sources of low top-down, bottom-up predictability left influences or policy deficits? Left and review Policies modestly left, and solutions mild Policy review, renewal needed Communists and unionists tame when in Govt in SA All implement government and known ANC policy (Polokwane, Manifesto, Nedlac agreement) Failure to address deficits Realities of policy failures and mismatches Unemployment and inequality growth in 15 years offer major drive for instability Yet thus far countered by ANC legitimacy, hegemony, electoral endorsements
SA s 15-Years of Complex Stability Macro-economic stability More growth than before Aspirational policy design RDP-Gear-post-Gear Incremental change Implement and progress Fault-lines manifest Two / dual economies Unemployment, poverty, inequality ANC revolt, along with hope, trust, self-interest Too often de-emphasis of need for change, also to placate markets and investors Stability over wide front, protest combined with vote Instability potential exacerbated by global financial crisis Period of uncertainty passing?
What Happens When South Africans do Instability, thus far?
What is Government Doing / Not Doing that Could Foster Instability? IN DOMAIN OF GOVERNMENT, CONSTITUTION, POLICY and INSTITUTIONS Changes in appointments Changes in policy and linked institutions Policy implementation / realisation President Cabinet balances, compromises within Minister of Finance debate Judicial and Security actions Successors and policy contestation Yet statements of no big change changes known for some time (Polokwane, Manifesto) Implementation failures Reinventions, readiness Policy deficits, leakage and conversions Inability to ensure systematic capacity in public sector Inappropriate policies Low accountability
SECTION 3 ELECTIONS AND POLICY MANDATES
Focus of Popular Mandates of Elections 2009 South Africans in love with elections and associated ploys VOTING CULTURE Robust electioneering Dominant ANC thrived in face of treasonous enemy After threat (de facto) to switch or withhold vote from ANC, follows renewal of trust Conditional ongoing support (or to be reinvented), despite disappointments, through magical campaigns Exuberant populism Parallel forms of participation Closeness to power holders; distance from opposition Knowledge of popular power to bring change, remove from power Then formalise on electoral terrain
Associated Post-election Policy Window Message from Electorate
SECTION 4 DYNAMICS OF POLICY CONTESTATION and CHANGE
9-Sequence Policy Dynamic GEAR and Mbeki selective consultation, purges of leftists Wide, wild intra Alliance positioning and contestation, state standstill Alliance positioning as left alternative January 8 2008 and State of Nation, Govt Plan of Action, Paralysis Midrand ANC broad policy statement, mid-07 Polokwane confirmation and Alliance purge of power ANC-NWC / Cabinet split ANC election manifesto; transitional planning Election 2009 and electorate speaks Post-election maelstrom, redesign processes, new policy - within limits
Policy Contestation and Change in 9-Sequence (P=policy) GEAR and Mbeki style of select consultation P moves post-gear but haunts, successes but gaps remain, debate moves beyond Wide, wild positioning and contestation P in near-eclipse, apart from institutional positioning, capture, subjugation of policy for leadership and power Election manifesto Reversal to P focus: Project on track, New leadership - new in job, have learnt, serve; 3- Alliance with moderated profile Alliance positioning as left alternative Over several years alternatives by Tripartite Alliance Atteridgeville and State of Nation P central, Mbeki takes instruction, Continuity but difference, Shift to +/- one centre of power Verdict of electorate Split between hopeful, skeptical, damning; New epoch old tools? Trust builds new era Midrand broad policy statement Strident claims of victory, Alliance rules, less concrete evidence Polokwane confirmation and Alliance capture of power New P confirmed, new ethos emphasised, Alliance differences Post-election implementation Scramble to redesign, empower, reassure, reinvent resources, global economic crisis equalises
Effective Left Advocacy
SECTION 5 LOOKING AHEAD
War of Policy and Voter Dynamics Known that further policy deficits will prevail, especially in constraints of global slowdown, SA state capacity and leadership political will Question is how deep the discontent, and possible to differentiate between ANC political will and failures triggered by global economic factors precisely at time that ANC has possible last chance with voters (accountability, undertakings) Opposition trend of some of the poor switching allegiance as in 2009 the greatest motivator for ANC to increase all efforts Possibility that ANC good standing with electorate can turn thin ANC could, however, still counter with renewed elections, bulk of poor remain solidly in ANC camp, (almost) in ANC interest not to fulfil all needs!
Policy Dynamics Carried Forward Pre-Polokwane and Zuma Takeover Populist thrust Sense of empowerment Purges Elimination of opposition (within) Campaign and Election 2009 Cabinet and Topdeployments Governance Period Policy-relevant dynamics carried forward Rejuvenation of ANC + Chance Opposition space + Belief in elections Formalisation of contestation Promises accountable, clean Strategic post-war Cabinet Balancing act of patronage, reward Ambiguity Renewal with flaws Ideological blend Questions re policy End of paralysis but slow reorganisation Substantive need Imperfect planning Review at time of economic crisis Policy attrition
Trajectories Towards Election 2014 New pessimism and time-out sets in, calling governing party to book on continuous policy deficits The no-go territory of splits from ANC breached in 2009 and new opposition in protest against ANC VERSUS ANC could nurture the 2009 majority and new ANC, to take voters along, have trust and close interface as insurance 2012 centenary used with good effect to retain and renew trust and second chance to get policy and delivery right ANC takes solace in knowing it can conquer threats by through campaigns, especially in times of elections
Bottom-Line How Much Change Can Business Expect in the Short and Medium Term? Short term No major changes, mostly institutional reengineering and policy synthesis, whilst new and reinforced policy priorities elaborated (job protection foremost), and delivery leakages plugged Medium term Some change possible, depending on how power evolves in the ANC and Alliance, between ideological groupings in political executive, and how ANC experiences voter dynamics in run-up to 2012 and 2014
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 18 JUNE 2009 HILTON SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG Thank You Susan Booysen Professor 18 June 2009