DIPLOMATIC FORUM The Newsletter of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs Auckland Branch June 2009 Dear members, Welcome to the latest edition of Diplomatic Forum. We had two fantastic seminars this month. The first was Terry Michael from the U.S State Department, who gave a fascinating and comprehensive insight into Obama s First 100 Days as well as an analysis into American domestic politics and media. The second seminar was on the situation in North Korea following the second nuclear weapons test conducted by Pyongyang earlier this year. Three speakers presented the perspectives of three key Asia-Pacific States that are concerned with the development of North Korea s nuclear arsenal. Dr Jian Yang gave a detailed account of the Chinese perspective, Dr Maria Rublee gave the American perspective, and Changzoon Song presented the South Korean views towards the incident. As the University of Auckland enters into the exams phase, both student and staff members on the Auckland NZIIA committee will be busy preparing and studying. The inter-semester break will commence following the conclusion of exams on June 29. Semester 2 will begin on July 20. We have three exciting seminars lined up for July. Details for one of them are included. The other two seminars are being finalised. We look forward to seeing you there. Please do not hesitate to contact the editor with any queries or concerns at wcha160@aucklanduni.ac.nz and do check our website www.arts.auckland.ac.nz/nziia. Regards, Wilson Chau, Newsletter Editor. DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed by the editor, authors and reviewers in this newsletter are not necessarily those held by the NZIIA.
AUT University, International Relations and The New Zealand Institute of International Affairs welcome H.E. Kasit Piromya Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand Please join us to hear His Excellency Mr. Kasit Piromya, speak on: The current situation in Thailand and its prospects 9th July 2009 5.30pm-6.45pm AUT University Council Room 7th floor of WA building Wellesley Street Entrance 55 Wellesley Street East Auckland City To secure a seat RSVP is essential Admittance only for those who have reserved a place. For more information please contact Cushla Matheson or to view H.E. Mr. Kasit Piromya CV visit: http://www.mfa.go.th/web/2687.php?id=2924 Please RSVP to : Cushla Matheson ph 09 921 9495 Or email cmatheso@aut.ac.nz
Seminar Review Terry Michael: Obama s First 100 Days (June 2 2009) Terry Michael s seminar on the 2 nd of June focused on the domestic and international aspects of the first 100 or as was quickly pointed out 131 days since Barack Obama was inaugurated. Michael s background involves time spent as a reporter; political press secretary for the Democratic National Committee; former press secretary for Senator Paul Simon; former press secretary for Congressman Robert Matsui; presidential primary campaign spokesman; and director of communications for the Paul Simon for President Committee. Drawing on The Onion newspaper s satirical headline: Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job, Michael set the scene, reminding the audience that circumstances in January this year could have been better for an incoming president. Obama inherited two overseas wars and a bleak economic picture. According to Mr Michael, helping restore the US s image internationally is one of Obama s key achievements in his first months in office. It is no easy task considering that the US s reputation had sunk to new levels under the George W. Bush administration. Worldwide opposition to President George W. Bush s policies, the exemplar of which was the international criminal enterprise in Iraq, was in danger of becoming anti-americanism. Internationally, the Cowboy from Texas had well and truly lost his audience. Obama s key achievement on the domestic front was that he has fostered hope and has managed to achieve at least some degree of public confidence. Michael describes Obama as a hope monger and sees this hope as a key component of his successful presidential campaign. Achieving public confidence outranked bailouts or the printing of money to stimulate the economy. Michael reminded the audience of the importance the public s confidence in their government, particularly in times of economic crisis. In fact, the very notion of the first one hundred days harks back to Franklin Roosevelt and his own address at fear and the need to restore confidence: highlighted by the often quoted: the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. In regards to ideology, although Obama has no fixed ideology, Michael sees him as influenced by the progressive era of the1890s to 1920s in the US, where there was a considerable amount of government action in the market. The fact that David Axlerod, senior advisor to Obama, is a progressive liberal shows that Obama and his administration has Keynesian tendencies. However, this does not mean that Obama is not open to free market ideas: the fact that the Obama administration doesn t wish to run General Motors is evidence of this. According to Michael, Obama s time teaching law at the University of Chicago, home of free market economics, has also shaped his thinking. Mr Michael describes the relationship between Obama and the media as a honeymoon that has been the longest of any US president. Certainly, there are calls by Republicans for the media to be tougher on the current president. Obama is a good story: his historic presidency; his attractive wife; two small children; and a 3
very cute little puppy dog all give the media plenty to draw on. Michael sees Obama s current popularity is important as the constituency allows him the luxury of making mistakes. However, once unemployment reaches 10 percent, Michael believes this honeymoon will come to an end media criticism will increase significantly. Unemployment in the US has recently risen to 9.4 percent so this scenario may well play out over the next few months. Once joblessness reaches levels not seen for 25 years, the population may well lose the hope that Obama so carefully constructed. In keeping with the media aspects of Obama s first one hundred days in office, Michael drew attention to the ability of presidents to be teachers as a result of the internet. He highlighted the media coverage of Obama s race speech in March 2008 a response to the controversy surrounding comments made by Obama s pastor Jeremiah Wright. Obama made a 45 minute coherent case that saw 4 million people watching the speech on YouTube. Michael saw this as an unprecedented occurrence of the last 50 years: from the 1960s until recently, presidents were forced to speak in 14, even 8 second sound bites, whilst pushing hot buttons to emphasize their points. Past president didn t have the luxury of making full coherent cases. The internet has made it possible for presidents to outline issues and make clear their approach to those issues. In Obama s case he is intelligent and communicates well, and is able to convince his constituency as well as his party. These qualities, combined with the advent of the internet enable Obama to be a good teacher, and educate those who are willing to learn. In light of some commentators accusing Obama of being symbolic and lacking substance, Michael sees some evidence of this: such as a stable family that adds credibility in the eyes of voters. This is an improvement on the past two presidents where George W. had two feisty daughters who drank illegally and Clinton had a dysfunctional family. One of the real assets that a leader can have is the perceived stability that the voters have of them, giving leaders the right to be wrong so long as their intentions are good. So, symbolism is important in politics. However, printing one trillion dollars or increasing troop numbers is Afghanistan is not symbolic. Michael also looked at the condition of the Republican Party, which he described as being in incredible disarray currently. He looked at the four groups within the GOP which are: (1) the Wall Street conservatives, who want to balance the government budget, keep expenditure low, and even raise taxes; (2) the Libertarians, who are deserting the Republican party, want very low taxes, low spending, and no government intrusion in the lives of individuals; (3) the social conservatives, who are against gay marriage, abortion, and want God in government, and have been the base of GOP since the early 1980s, but are turning off the all important centre voter; and (4) the neoconservatives, the big government conservatives, who are receding from politics following the Bush era. Despite this disarray, Michael warns against discounting credible opposition to Obama in the future, citing Lyndon Johnson s defeat to Richard Nixon in 1968 which 4
followed an almost two thirds majority win four years earlier. In US politics, the situation can turn on a dime. Wild swings from left to right or vice-versa are characteristic of US politics. On top of this, Michael has concerns over the Democratic Party itself because it is also split between four groups, but moreover the democrats do not have any defining ideology. Instead the Democrats run on the advice of pollsters and media advisors. Michael believes this is not useful for energising and sustaining a stable base, leaving personality politics, such as was seen in the 2008 campaign. Michael sees ideology as a way to regulate politicians and build at least some degree of trust with the voter. Review by Nick Laery 5