Trump, Clinton and the Future of the United States of America

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Trump, Clinton and the Future of the United States of America

Professor Todd Landman Pro Vice Chancellor Faculty of Social Sciences University of Nottingham @drtoddlandman #USElections2016 29 September 2016

Outline The 2016 electoral landscape Early Primaries Super Tuesday A narrowing race The party conventions The shifting demographic Current position Challenges for the future

The Electoral Landscape Presidential Votes 1952-2012 2012 Elections 2014 Midterm Elections

Presidential Votes Obama Obama Bush II Bush II Clinton Clinton Bush I Reagan Reagan Carter Nixon Nixon Johnson Kennedy Eisenhower Eisenhower

Presidential Election 2012 Presiden(al Candidate Vice Presiden(al Candidate Poli(cal Party Popular Vote % Vote Electoral Votes % Vote Barack H. Obama Joseph R. Biden, Jr. DemocraDc 65,918,507 51.01% 332 61.70% Willard MiQ Romney Paul Ryan Republican 60,934,407 47.15% 206 38.30% Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian 1,275,923 0.99% 0 0.00% Jill Stein Cheri Honkala Green 469,015 0.36% 0 0.00% Other (+) - - 639,790 0.50% 0 0.00% Total 129,237,642 538 hqp://uselecdonatlas.org/results/nadonal.php

Presidential Election 2012 Rural- Urban split

Midterm Elections 2014 All 435 seats in the House of Representatives 36 seats in the Senate out of 100 were contested Republicans gained seats in both the House and the Senate and gained control of Congress Divided government

House Elections

Senate Elections

Early Primaries 60 50 Number of Delegates 40 30 20 10 Iowa New Hampshire Nevada Dems South Carolina Reps Nevada Reps South Carolina Dems 0 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Clinton Sanders Candidates

Super Tuesday the presidency is now Clinton s to lose.

Super Tuesday 2 March 2016 Candidates Sanders Clinton Kasich Rubio Cruz Trump Alabama Alaska Arkansas Rep Colorado Dems Georgia Massachusetts Minnesota Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Vermont Virginia American Samoa Democrats Abroad 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Number of Delegates

Four-way race Status Outsider Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Insider Hillary Clinton Ted Cruz Led Right Ideological posi(on

Primary Results 2500 2220 2000 1831 Number of Delegates 1500 1000 1447 551 591 Delegates Super Delegates 500 0 167 161 48 Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Clinton Sanders Candidates

The Conventions Trump America in decline Rising crime rates Crumbling infrastructure Unwelcome people and threats Loss of power and authority abroad Caudillo politics Clinton America that can work together Inclusive narrative Policy knowledge Centre left domestic stance Pragmatic realist foreign stance

Clinton v. Trump Clinton Raise middle class income Gun control Affordable healthcare Pathway to citizenship Pro union Pro equality/diversity Voting rights Trump Physically separate US and Mexico Oppose Affordable Care Act Veteran administration reform Tax reform Strong 2 nd amendment rights Immigration reform

The Great Debate Unprepared, delivered single message, and played to core supporters Prepared, delivered muldple messages, and sdll needs a strong vision

Key changes Ideological polarisation Progressive shift Demographic shift

Ideological polarisation

Progressive shift Support for same sex marriage

Demographic shift Ethnic composition (Actual and Projected)

Demographic shift Asian population (Actual and Projected)

Demographic shift Ethnic Support for Candidates (N=1,958) % Support 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Turnout rates among African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latino Americans have increased significantly since 2000. These groups have also shown increased support for the Democrats since 2000. 0 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Someone else Probably not vote Undecided Candidates African American adults 18-30 Asian American adults 18-30 LaDno/a adults 18-30 White adults 18-30 All adults 18-30 hqp://genforwardsurvey.com/assets/uploads/2016/08/genforwardaugust2016toplines_final- 1.pdf John Hudak and ChrisDne Stenglein (2016) How demographic changes are trasnforming U.S. elecdons Brookings Briefing, hqp://www.brookings.edu

Demographic shift Religious affiliation

Unfavourable Trump and Clinton are the least favourable candidates ever to run for president.

Predictions Team Model Date Predic(on Confidence Helmut Norpoth (SUNY) Primary 3 March 2016 Republican 52.5% Democrats 47.5% Robert Erikson (Columbia) Christopher Wlezian (Texas) Brad Lockerbie (East Carolina) Michael Lewis- Beck (Iowa) Charles Tien (CUNY) Leading Economic Indicators Econ expectadons PoliDcal punishment 13 June 2016 22 August 2016 Democrats 53% Republicans 48% 28 June 2016 Democrats 50.4% Republicans 49.6% PoliDcal economy model 29 July 2016 Democrats 51.1% Republicans 48.9% Alan Abramowitz (Emory) Time for change 29 July 2016 Republicans 51.4% Democrats 48.6% James Campbell (SUNY) ConvenDon Bump 26 August 2016 Democrats 51.2% Republicans 48.8% 87% 75% 62% 83% 66% 75% hqp://www.centerforpolidcs.org/crystalball/ardcles/the- polidcal- science- elecdon- forecasts- of- the- 2016- presidendal- and- congressional- elecdons- part- 4/

Predictions (FiveThirtyEight) hqp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016- elecdon- forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Key states State Expected Margin of Victory Chance of Tipping Elec(on (%) Florida 0.6 18 Pennsylvania 2.7 12 Michigan 3.6 10 Ohio 1.8 9 North Carolina 1.2 9 Colorado 1.6 7 Wisconsin 3.8 6 Virginia 4.6 5 Minnesota 4.3 4 Nevada 0.6 3 New Hampshire 2.7 3 Georgia 5.6 2 Iowa 3 2 Arizona 4.5 2

Future challenges Domestic Ideological polarization, divided government, demographic shift Crime, punishment, and justice Inequality Healthcare Immigration Gun control Terrorism and security International EU and the Referendum Trade and globalization Terrorism and security Climate change and global warming Energy security

THANK YOU www.todd- landman.com

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