THE strategist DEMOCRATIC A Journal of Public Opinion & Political Strategy www.thedemocraticstrategist.org A TDS Strategy Memo: Missing White Voters: Round Two of the Debate By Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz Missing Voters in the 2012 Election: Not so white, not so Republican Reprinted From: Center for Politics 1 Do missing white voters offer hope for the Republican Party in future presidential elections? Sean Trende, a popular elections analyst for RealClearPolitics.com, thinks so. According to Trende, a large number of white voters dropped out of the electorate in 2012 because they weren t enthusiastic about Mitt Romney s candidacy. Trende has argued that getting these missing voters back to the polls could allow the GOP to overcome any advantage Democrats may gain from the growing nonwhite share of the electorate in the 2016 presidential election and beyond. Although Trende claims that he is not advocating doubling down on white voters, it is clear that his argument nicely complements the views of conservatives opposed to immigration reform and other policies designed to attract more nonwhite voters to the GOP. If you don t think you can win a larger share of the nonwhite vote, then the only way you can win is by attracting more white voters to the polls and/or by winning a larger share of the white vote. We have argued that the missing white voters theory is unrealistic for several reasons. The most important is that it ignores the missing nonwhite voters data on voter turnout in 2012 show that a substantial number of nonwhites also dropped out of the electorate in 2012. This past election featured a lower turnout overall than 2008, and this was true for nonwhites as well as for whites. A future presidential election that produced a higher turnout of white voters would almost certainly also produce a higher turnout of nonwhite voters. Thus far the debate about missing voters has been based largely on exit poll and U.S. Census Bureau estimates of the size and turnout rates of different racial groups in 2008 and 2012. However, the exit poll by definition has no information on these missing voters. And the census surveys, while they do cover nonvoters, include no questions on the political attitudes of either voters or nonvoters. Thus, neither data source allows us to compare the characteristics and attitudes of three key groups: returning voters, dropouts and new voters. Fortunately, there is another data set that does include questions on the political attitudes of voters and nonvoters alike, and that does allow us to compare the characteristics and attitudes of returning voters, dropouts and new voters the 2012 American National Election Study. The ANES is the longest-running and most widely respected academic survey of the American electorate. It has been conducted in every presidential election year and most midterm election years since 1948. The 2012 survey is notable for its addition of an Internet-based component 1 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/%e2%80%9cmissing-voters%e2%80%9d-in-the-2012-election/ 1
and for its very large sample size. Almost 5,500 eligible voters were surveyed before and after the election, and the overall results matched the outcome of the presidential election reasonably closely, with Barack Obama winning 52% of the vote to 45% for Mitt Romney.* (In the actual election, Obama won 51% to Romney s 47%). The outcome of any election depends on the size and candidate preferences of the three groups mentioned above returning voters, dropouts and new voters. It is therefore important to consider the contribution of new voters as well as that of dropouts to changes in the composition of the electorate and election results over time. Table 1 displays the racial composition of these three groups in 2012 based on data from the ANES survey.** Table 1: Racial composition of returning voters, dropouts and new voters in 2012 Race Returning voters Dropouts New voters White 74% 64% 61% African-American 13% 14% 14% Latino 8% 15% 19% Other Nonwhite 5% 7% 6% Source: 2012 American National Election Study The most important feature of Table 1 in relation to the debate over missing voters is that the dropouts were significantly less white than the returning voters. This is consistent with our earlier critique of Trende s missing white voters theory. The reason that the white share of the electorate decreased in 2012 was not that whites made up a disproportionate share of dropouts (even the census data, which are most favorable to Trende s case, indicate that less than a fifth of the white share decrease can be accounted for by disproportionate white dropouts; the exit polls and the ANES data presented here indicate far less). The white share of the electorate decreased because the new voters included an even larger proportion of nonwhites than the dropouts and a substantially larger proportion of nonwhites than the returning voters. Of course, the impact of dropouts and new voters on the outcome of an election ultimately depends on the candidate preferences of these two groups compared with the candidate preferences of returning voters. Here, the results from the 2012 ANES are even more damaging to the missing white voters theory, as the data displayed in Table 2 show. The data in this table show that, based on their pre-election candidate preferences, dropouts favored Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a somewhat larger margin than returning voters.^ In other words, the missing voters in 2012 were more Democratic than the returning voters. However, new voters favored Obama by a considerably larger margin than either of these groups. So the net impact of turnover in the electorate was to produce a 2012 electorate that was more inclined to vote for Obama than the 2008 electorate. 2
Table 2: Pre-election candidate preference of returning voters, dropouts and new voters in 2012 Candidate Returning voters Dropouts New voters Obama 50% 52% 60% Romney 46% 41% 36% Other, Undecided 4% 7% 4% Source: 2012 American National Election Study While the 2012 dropouts were not, as Trende s argument implies, disproportionately white, the missing white voters theory could still be saved if it were somehow possible to bring white dropouts back to the polls at a much higher rate than nonwhite dropouts. White dropouts in 2012 did prefer Mitt Romney to Barack Obama, although by a slightly smaller margin than returning white voters. In the pre-election survey, Romney led Obama by 53% to 41% in this group. In contrast, returning white voters favored Romney by a margin of 55% to 40%. So bringing these white dropouts back to the polls probably would not increase the GOP margin among white voters but it could increase the GOP margin in the overall electorate if they turned out at a much higher rate than nonwhite dropouts. Table 3: Campaign engagement of 2012 dropouts by race White Interest in Campaign Nonwhite Very Interested 28% 39% Somewhat Interested 42% 27% Not Much Interested 29% 14% Attention to Politics, Elections Always, Most of Time 34% 53% Half of the Time 24% 18% Some of the Time, Never 43% 29% Known Location of Polling Place 71% 74% Registered to Vote At Current Address 64% 66% At Another Address 27% 23% Not Registered 9% 11% Source: 2012 American National Election Study 3
But how realistic is the expectation that white dropouts could be turned out at a much higher rate than nonwhite dropouts in 2016? In order to answer this question, Table 3 compares white and nonwhite dropouts on several indicators of political engagement interest in the 2012 presidential campaign, general level of attention to politics and elections, awareness of the location of one s polling place and, last but not least, registration status. On every one of these indicators, nonwhite dropouts do as well as or better than white dropouts. Nonwhite dropouts expressed a higher level of interest in the 2012 presidential campaign than white dropouts and a considerably higher level of attention to politics and elections in general. And nonwhite dropouts were just as likely to know the location of their polling place and just as likely to be registered to vote at their current address.^^ Based on these results, the expectation that white dropouts could be turned out at a substantially higher rate than nonwhite dropouts in 2016 appears to be very unrealistic. A misleading focus on missing voters Beyond the fact that the 2012 dropouts do not look like a group that Republicans can count on for help in future elections, a focus on missing voters completely ignores what is almost certain to remain the most important source of change in the racial composition and political orientations of the American electorate for the foreseeable future generational replacement. To demonstrate the potential impact of generational replacement on the electorate, Table 4 compares the racial composition, party identification and presidential candidate preference of different age groups in the 2012 ANES survey based on respondents who reported voting in either 2012 or 2008. So the 2012 dropouts are included in this table. Table 4: Generational differences in race, party identification and presidential candidate preference in 2012 Age Group % Nonwhite % Democratic % Republican % Obama % Romney 18-29 40 17 20 30-39 34 10 16 40-49 29 3 7 50-59 27 6 5 60-69 20 6 2 70+ 17-5 -17 Source: 2012 American National Election Study Note: Based on respondents voting in either 2012 or 2008 The age-group differences in race, party identification and presidential candidate preference in Table 4 are stunning and underscore the direct threat posed by generational replacement to the future viability of the Republican Party. The youngest age group in the electorate was the most racially diverse, the most Democratic and the most likely to prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney. In contrast, the oldest age group in the electorate was the least racially diverse, the 4
most Republican and the most likely to prefer Mitt Romney to Barack Obama. Moreover, based on the known racial characteristics of those who will be entering the electorate over the next several decades, it is almost certain that this trend will continue. Conclusion While we cannot predict with certainty exactly what the racial composition of the electorate will be in any given election, we can predict with a high degree of confidence that the nonwhite share of the electorate will continue to grow for many years to come. Given the near inevitability of this demographic trend, a political party that depends almost entirely on the support of white voters will face a more and more difficult task in assembling a winning electoral coalition. Focusing on missing white voters ignores this fundamental and irreversible trend. *** *Detailed information on the 2012 ANES including sampling procedures, questionnaire design and question wording can be found at www.electionstudies.org. 2 **The fact that the number of new voters is larger than the number of dropouts might appear to contradict the fact that the total number of voters actually decreased between 2008 and 2012. However, this apparent discrepancy is probably due to the fact that there is an additional set of dropouts who cannot be surveyed those who died between 2008 and 2012. Approximately 10 million Americans would have died over this four-year period and the vast majority would have been eligible voters. ^Pre-election interviews were conducted in September and October. Candidate preferences in the pre-election interview almost perfectly predicted voters candidate choices 98% of voters cast their ballots for the candidate that they preferred in the pre-election interview. ^^The large proportions of white and nonwhite dropouts who reported being registered at another address suggests that one of the major reasons for voters dropping out of the electorate between elections is geographic mobility and the necessity of re-registering at a new address after moving. 2 http://www.electionstudies.org 5
Missing White Voters Still Won t Save You Reprinted From: Think Progress TP Ideas 3 Last week, we published a critique of Sean Trende s thesis now widely adopted among Republicans resisting immigration reform and other minority-friendly political moves that missing white voters were the key demographic of the 2012 election and, if mobilized, will be the key ingredient for GOP revival. Trende has now written a reply to our critique that purports to show that we err in downgrading the importance of missing white voters. We beg to differ. His reply leaves the basic points we made untouched. So-called missing white voters were to a large extent a product of a relatively low turnout election that affected both minorities and whites. So the idea that it will somehow be possible to add missing whites back into the voting pool without also adding missing minorities back in seems fanciful tantamount to calling for a whites-only high turnout election. That s not likely to happen and that s why Republicans would be better off dealing with the basic facts of demographic change i.e., that every Presidential election in the future is likely to see a 2 percentage point increase in the share of minority voters and a 2 percentage point decrease in white voters rather than putting their faith in a massive mobilization of white voters, missing and otherwise. Trende s first point in his reply is to argue we misinterpreted him that he really wasn t making that big a deal out of missing white voters and that the focus of our criticism is unfair. Well, it s a bit late for that. When you title the lead part of your analysis, The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited, proclaim that the most salient demographic change from 2008 to 2012 was the drop in white voters, and have missing white voters continually cited as a justification for a continued GOP focus on whites, you must expect that people will take that part of your analysis seriously indeed. And we did. Trende goes on to assert that missing white voters are especially significant because they were highly likely to be working class whites in northern blue collar counties and therefore presumably exceptionally friendly to the GOP. This is speculative and perhaps just plain wrong. As Nate Cohn has pointed out: Republican opportunities with missing white voters are pretty marginal. Just as the GOP can t erase Obama s margin with Hispanics, it can t assume that every missing white voter was a conservative. According to the Census, 40 percent of the drop-off was from 18-24 year old whites not easy targets for the GOP. The missing white voters are also missing in most of the battleground states, just like Hispanics. Turnout was flat or up in some of the whitest battlegrounds, like Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Obama s success in these high turnout, white areas calls into question whether their missing compatriots were especially GOP-friendly. Trende goes on to argue that the missing white voters can be mobilized but the missing voters somehow can t. This is not convincing. The fact remains which Trende did not challenge that turnout rates, based on exit poll data, fell about equally among whites and minorities (3.4 vs. 3.2 percentage points). It s also true that the falloff from projected to actual numbers of voters the so-called missing voters was the same in percentage terms among 3 http://thinkprogress.org/election/2013/07/18/2325041/trende-response/ 6
both whites and minorities (6.2 vs. 6.1 percent). So 2012 was a relatively low turnout election that significantly affected both whites and minorities. Trende wants to believe that only the missing white voters that sat out that election are significant and that only they can be mobilized in the future. Possible, but not likely. Prudent political strategists might want to place their bets elsewhere. He then switches data sets to the Census Current Population Survey (CPS) data on voter turnout (not used in his original analysis). These data do show more turnout decline among whites than minorities. But these data also show less turnout decline than we know happened in the real world: 1.8 vs. 3.4 percentage points. Moreover, if Trende wants to place his bets on the CPS then he is also placing his bets on a universe where support for Romney was lower than estimated in the exit polls. That is because the CPS data show a race-ethnic distribution of voters that is more heavily white than the exit polls (74 vs. 72 percent). To make the CPS distribution consistent with the actual election outcome, Romney s lead among whites would have to be reduced from 20 to around 16 points. One senses that this is not Trende s preferred universe. The author s reply also dwells on the idea that private equity mogul Romney kept the missing whites at home and that the magic elixir especially for downscale whites would have been a sturdy populist like ex-minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. We are skeptical. Pawlenty s policies are not different fundamentally from Romney s: cut taxes on the rich and hope the benefits trickle down while slashing spending on social programs that actually benefit lower income Americans (most of whom are white). And call it populist. There s not a hint from Trende or any of the other advocates of this approach of what new policies Republicans should adopt to appeal to downscale white voters. A final comment: it seems to us that Trende is arguing that it will be possible to reverse the long-time trend toward a increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate that has been going on for decades. That s what a lot of Republicans hoped for in 2012 they argued that the nonwhite share of the electorate had peaked in 2008 and that the Obama campaign couldn t possibly recreate the sort of excitement that existed then and/or that a lot of nonwhite voters had become disillusioned with Obama. We know what happened. More significantly, the steady increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate has occurred in relatively high and relatively low turnout elections. Exit poll data, Census data and just a simple examination of the racial makeup of various age groups in 2012 indicate that this trend is almost certain to continue in 2016 and beyond. That s the real lesson Republicans should be taking from the 2012 election. A different mix of voters demands a different strategy, not a quixotic quest for missing white voters. At least if they re interested in winning the Presidency any time soon. 7