What s Happening Out There

What s Happening Out There Political Scene Fall 2015 Presentation to Pacific Northwest Waterways Association By John Horvick, DHM Research October 8, 2015

Horse Race Public s Mood Economy & Labor Trade Changing Communities Q&A 2

Horse Race 3

Republican Nomination Huffington Post Trump 24% Carson 14% Fiorina/Rubio 10% Bush 9% Cruz 6% Christie 4% Paul/Kasich/Huckabee 3% June 2015 October 2015

Republican Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Betfair) Prediction Market Prices Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Donald Trump Carly Fiorina Ben Carson Ted Cruz Chris Christie John Kasich Mike Huckabee Rand Paul Bobby Jindal Rick Santorum Lindsey Graham Scott Walker George Pataki 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.26 0.30 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Republican Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Btffair) Prediction Market Prices Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Donald Trump Carly Fiorina Ben Carson Ted Cruz Chris Christie John Kasich Mike Huckabee Rand Paul Bobby Jindal Rick Santorum Lindsey Graham Scott Walker George Pataki 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.30 0.26 Establishment: 64% Outsider: 30% 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Democratic Nomination Huffington Post Clinton 43% Sanders 25% Biden 20% June 2015 October 2015 Chafee O Malley 1-2% Webb

Democratic Nomination Markets (PredicIt, Betfair) Prediction Market Prices Hillary Clinton 0.63 Joe Biden Bernie Sanders 0.17 0.15 Martin OMalley Elizabeth Warren Al Gore Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

Job Performance Net + Pope Francis 40% 31% 12% 7% 10% +52 Ron Wyden 22% 36% 18% 8% 17% +32 Kate Brown 24% 33% 20% 13% 11% +24 Patty Murray 28% 26% 13% 19% 14% +22 Jay Inslee 17% 31% 19% 17% 16% +12 Approve strongly Approve somewhat Oppose somewhat Oppose strongly Don't know

Needs of those in poverty Housing Health care K-12 education Transporation Needs of those in the middle class Energy Earthquake preparedness Taxes Government spending Balancing the state budget Small business Large business Party Trust 16% 19% 22% 20% 19% 24% 23% 16% 17% 46% 42% 43% 40% 37% 42% 41% 29% 31% 33% 32% 29% 33% 29% 35% 30% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republicans Democrats

Needs of those in poverty Housing Health care K-12 education Transporation Needs of those in the middle class Energy Earthquake preparedness Taxes Government spending Balancing the state budget Small business Large business Party Trust 16% 19% 22% 20% 19% 24% 23% 16% 17% 46% 42% 43% 40% 37% 42% 41% 29% 31% 33% 32% 29% 33% 29% 35% 30% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republicans Democrats

Public s Mood 13

All things considered, do you feel things in Oregon are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? 100% 80% 60% 64% 51% 49% 50% 52% 58% 40% 20% 21% 34% 35% 36% 31% 31% 0% Right Direction Wrong Track

Right Direction by State Utah (January) 73% Oregon (September) Nevada (May) 53% 58% Idaho (July) Washington (June) California (May) Colorado (May 2014) Arizona (August) United States (October) 44% 43% 40% 35% 30% 26%

Political Process Good for Everyone or Good for the Powerful? The political process of electing representatives and passing laws is messy, but in the end it works best for everyone. 12% 32% 44% The political process is horribly broken and is rigged to benefit the most powerful 25% 29% 54% Much closer Somewhat closer

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES K-12 public education Jobs & the economy Taxes and government spending Roads and transportation Crime and public safety Environmental protection Poverty and homelessness Income inequality and minimum wage Abortion, same sex marriage, presidential elections

VOTER KNOWLEDGE 50% 50%+ 60%+ Cannot name the three branches of government Cannot name the source of their drinking water supply Cannot names the candidates for governor or senator 18

Economy & Labor 19

14% Oregon Unemployment Rate 12% 11.6% 10% 8% 6% 6.1% 4% 2% US: 5.1% Washington: 5.3% Idaho: 4.2% 0% 20

Concern about personal financial situation 66% 71% 71% 65% 52% 62% 60% March 2011 September 2011 January 2012 April 2013 September 2014 December 2014 April 2015 Somewhat/very 21

22

Support for Minimum $15 Minimum Wage: Oregon & Washington Washington 29% 16% 14% 37% 5% Oregon 26% 13% 18% 39% 4% Support -- strongly Support -- somewhat Oppose -- somewhat Oppose -- strongly Don't know 23

Support for Minimum Wage Increases in Oregon and Washington ~30% do not support any increase in the minimum wage ~20% Support increasing minimum wage to $15+ $11 - $12 Median preferred minimum wage 24

Approve or Disapprove of Labor Unions (US) (Gallup) 60% 58% 52% 52% 52% 54% 53% 50% 48% 45% 40% 41% 42% 42% 39% 38% 36% 30% 20% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Approve Disapprove

Approve or disapprove of labor unions 23% Approval 29% Total: 58% Dem: 86% NAV/Other: 62% Rep: 16% 17% 29% 2% Approve stongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove stongly Don't know

Trade 27

Importance of Trade: Portland Metro How important for Oregon is it to support development of international trade: not at all important, not very important, somewhat important, or very important? 47% 43% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Not at all important Not very important Somewhat important Very important Don t know

View Foreign Trade Mostly as an Opportunity for the US (Gallup) Bush Obama 70% 66% 61% 60% 55% 56% 50% 51% 46% 48% 51% 51% 47% 40% 38% 36% 30% 20% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Democrats Republicans

Support for Coal and Oil Transport Do you support or oppose transporting coal through the Pacific Northwest and exporting it to other countries from ports in Oregon and Washington? 18% 29% 18% 16% 19% Do you support or oppose transporting oil through the Pacific Northwest to reach West Coast refineries, with the refined oil being used for domestic purposes? 21% 35% 15% 8% 15% Support-strongly Support-somewhat Oppose-somewhat Oppose-strongly Don't know

Changing Communities 31

Median Age by Race White 43 42 Asian Native American 29 33 35 35 African American 31 32 Hispanic 24 27 Two or more 20 Oregon National

US Median Income and Net Wealth by Race (2014/2013 dollars, US Census/Federal Reserve) Asian $91,000 $67,000 White $58,000 $134,000 Hispanic $14,000 $41,000 African American $11,000 $35,000 Net Wealth Income

Median Age by Vote History 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% All Oregonians Adult Oregonians All Registered 2 of 4 4 of 4

Q&A 37