National Consortium for Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Conflict, Terrorism and Societal Resilience Jonathan Wilkenfeld University of Maryland, jwilkenf@gvpt.umd.edu Congressional Briefing Showcasing Research from a National Science and Technology Council Report: Social, Behavioral and Economic Research in the Federal Context July 16, 2009 START: Overview Comprised of far-ranging multidisciplinary network of scholars Broad research agenda, addressed by academics with diverse backgrounds and competencies DHS provides base funding, but ongoing efforts to leverage DHS investments Education is a primary part of mission
START Consortium Abroad PrimaryAcademic Disciplines Anthropology ~ Communications ~ Criminology ~ Economics ~ Geography ~ History ~ Political Science ~ Public Health ~ Public Policy ~ Psychology ~ Security Studies ~ Sociology Funding and Support for START DoD: OSD, CIFA Nat l Institute of Justice (DoJ) University of Maryland DHS S&T Office of University Programs S&T Human Factors & Behavioral Sciences Div. S&T C2I Division S&T International Programs National Protection and Programs Directorate FEMA DNDO TSA National Science Foundation Private Corporations
Federal Government Interest in START s Research DHS DNDO FEMA National Programs and Preparedness Directorate Intelligence and Analysis Office of Health Affairs Office of Policy TSA U.S. Coast Guard Secret Service Office of Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Customs and Border Patrol Homeland Security Institute Intelligence Community National Counterterrorism Center Department of Defense Office of SecDefense Air Force Research Lab United States Special Operations Command DTRA Joint Warfare Analysis Center NCIS Capitol Hill House Science Cmte House HomelandSec Cmte Senate Cmte on HomelandSec and Government Reform Congressional Research Service General Accounting Office Measuring Counterterrorism Efficacy
START s Data Collection Efforts Global Databases GTD (Terrorist Events) MAROB (Violent and Non-Violent Political Organizations) International Surveys Face-to-Face Surveys in Pakistan, Egypt, Morocco, and Indonesia Web Survey in 20 Arab Countries National Databases Extremist Criminal Activity Social Vulnerability Community Resilience Index National Surveys Muslim-American Social Networks National Household Survey on Preparedness Behaviors Field Work Indonesia, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom, Philippines, Singapore, United States Individual Motivation and Group Formation
INDIVIDUAL RADICALIZATION personal grievance group grievance personal ties slippery slope Twelve mechanisms of radicalization GROUP RADICALIZATION extremity shift in likeminded group dynamics of isolation and threat intragroup competition intergroup competition condensation from larger movement MASS RADICALIZATION jujitsu politics hate martyrdom Research led by Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko Willingness to Use Terror: An Experimental Analysis Willingness to use terror is rare Only 10% of experiment participants express willingness Willingness to use terror is not directly influenced by individuals level of grievance (in the form of past and ongoing discrimination and oppression). Willingness to use terror is related to individuals level of Social Dominance Orientation SDO = a general desire for group-based dominance and hierarchy rather than equality Those who are higher on SDO who do support action are 14% more likely to choose terror (rather than protest). An individual s justification of the use of terrorism by others is 16% more likely with higher grievance. Research led by Jon Wilkenfeld, Victor Asal, and Anthony Lemieux
Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior Middle East Middle East: Democratic Ideology 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Unknown 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 No democratic ideology 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Democratic Ideology
Middle East: Violence vs. Nonviolence 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Unknown Nonviolent Violent Terrorist Operations and Dynamics
Global Frequency of Terrorist Attacks Mass-Casualty Terrorism: More than 25 fatalities per event
Community Vulnerability and Resilience Social Vulnerability, State of Maryland (2000) Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina http://www.cas.sc.edu/geog/hrl/index.htm
From Vulnerability to Resilience: Components of Community Resilience Economic Development Resource level Resource equity Resource diversity Social Capital Social support Social participation Community bonds, roots, and commitments Info & Communication Infrastructure Trusted information sources Responsible media Community Competence Collective action and decision making skills Collective efficacy Empowerment Research led by Fran Norris and Betty Pfefferbaum 17 18 12 13 11 14 10 6 4 9 5 3 1 2 7 7 8 Core Community Resilience Items 1Actively prepare for future disasters 2Work with agencies outside the community 3Built infrastructure (roads, schools, etc.) 4People feel like they belong in the community 5Discuss issues to improve the community 6Awareness of community issues 7Services and programs to help people post-disaster 8People have hope for future 9People help each other 10Competent workforce 11People treated fairly 12People know where to get things done 13People are able to get services they need 14Effective leaders 15Emergency services during a disaster 16Communication with leaders 17Natural resources 18Disaster prevention
Preparedness Actions in the U.S. weighted sample, n=3300 Research led by Linda Bourque and Dennis Mileti START s Educational Programs Hands-on Research Training Graduate Assistantships Pre- & Post-Doctoral Fellowships Undergraduate Research Program Professional Development Online Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Analysis Customized Training Programs Advancing Undergrad Curriculum Minor in Terrorism Studies Interdisciplinary Coursework, including Study Abroad (EU) Curriculum development grants Online syllabi repository More details at www.start.umd.ed/start/education Selected Placements of START Students CBP FBI NCIS Terrorist Financing Division, Dept of Treasury Department of Justice Center for Homeland Defense and Security Northern California Regional Terrorism Threat Assessment Center New York State Office of Homeland Security King County (WA) Office of Emergency Management START More than 440 students have been involved in START programs since 2005.
Questions and Comments? National Consortium for Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Conflict, Terrorism and Societal Resilience Jonathan Wilkenfeld University of Maryland, jwilkenf@gvpt.umd.edu Congressional Briefing Showcasing Research from a National Science and Technology Council Report: Social, Behavioral and Economic Research in the Federal Context July 16, 2009