CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 6, July 01 KEY MESSAGES PAGE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE POLITICAL SOCIAL 3 ECONOMIC 3. NATIONAL CONTEXT.. PRESIDENT BUHARI S VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES UPDATE ON REGIONAL RESPONSE TO JAS UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN SITUATION THE RISING THREAT OF RADIO BIAFRA. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TAREGT STATES 6 *Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government. ** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.
Executive Summary The security situation in the North East, especially Borno and Yobe states did not improve much despite efforts by Nigerian military and the Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to defeat the insurgency. Suspected Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS) insurgents continued to conduct attacks within Nigeria and across Chad, Cameroon and Niger Republic. However, there are indications that the counter-insurgency efforts were yielding results. The JAS appeared weakened and unable to take on the military in battles. The strategy of JAS remained attacking soft targets such as places of worship, markets and other public places with body-held bombs detonated by boys, girls and young women. JAS also conducted sporadic raids on communities that were freed from occupation and had been resettled by returning displaced persons. During such attacks, suspected JAS insurgents embarked on indiscriminate killing of civilians and looting of food stores, shops and local fuel stations. The pattern of looting conducted in the month lends credence to assertions by the military that it had cut-off supply channels for JAS. President Muhammadu Buhari continued to reach out to governments of other countries for support in Nigeria's counter-insurgency initiatives. This led to visits to the United States and Cameroon. The four day state visit to the US yielded positive results as commendatory remarks by US officials foreshadowed a thaw in tensions in US Nigeria relations. However, Nigerian officials and the general public were disappointed that the Obama administration remained constrained by the Leahy Law from lifting the embargo on arms sales to Nigeria. This is because the new Nigerian government and military authorities had started taking measures to investigate allegations of human rights violations levelled against the Nigerian military. President Buhari had used the opportunity of the visit to intimate the US authorities that the embargo was impeding counter-insurgency efforts and indirectly aiding the insurgent group. The lingering leadership crisis in the National Assembly was resolved following the intervention of the president. However, intra and inter party conflicts in the All Progressive Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Labour Party heated the polity. Controversies trailed the non-appointment of ministers and key government functionaries and the resolution of President Buhari to probe the Jonathan administration and prosecute persons that had corruptly enriched themselves at the expense of the public. However, there were allegations that the corruption probe was a witch-hunt against persons being targeted for political reasons. This is particularly so because the administration restricted the probe to the preceding Jonathan administration and most of the cases of investigation carried out by the Nigeria Police Force, the Department of State Security (DSS) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) involve political figures that are considered to have issues with Buhari. The Buhari administration has however restated its commitment to unbiased anti-corruption campaign and promised to prosecute members of the ruling party involved in corrupt practices. Context Analysis/Conflict Profile Political Tensions surrounding the controversial election of the National Assembly leadership in June persisted. The Nigeria Police was called in to investigate allegations that the Standing Order used to conduct the elections of the President and Deputy President of the Senate was forged. The investigation is alleged to be part of the plan to unseat the senate leadership which emerged against the wishes of the ruling party. In the House of Representative, the lingering leadership election was resolved following the intervention of President Buhari, who reportedly persuaded the Speaker of the House to accept the nominee of the party for the post of House Leader.
The resolve of the Buhari administration to recover stolen funds from public officials continued to cause tensions in political circles. The decision to focus the probe on officials of the immediate past administration has raised suspicions about the government's intentions as many suspect it is intended to target former President Goodluck Jonathan and members of his government. Some of the politicians who are wanted by Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) include the former Kano state Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso wanted in connection with alleged embezzlement of Nbillion pension funds and former Jigawa state Governor Alhaji Sule Lamido who is wanted on money laundering charges. Family members of political figures have not been speared in the on-going hunt by Nigeria's anti-graft agency. For instance, wife of the embattled Senate President Mrs Toyin Saraki, has been invited for questioning in connection with questionable inflow of funds into companies where she has interests. Similarly, Hajiya Zainab Dakingari, daughter of late President Yar'Adua is wanted for alleged involvement in Nbillion fraud whilst two sons of former Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa state have been joined in a court case on money laundering case against their father. Indications that the Buhari administration is open to granting immunity from prosecution in exchange for return of stolen funds however, suggests that fears of persecution may be unfounded. Across the states, anxiety over the possible outcome of election tribunals and dissolution of local government councils continued to have a negative impact on governance. In most states, governance has been hampered by uncertainties over the outcome of suits filed at the election tribunals. In Rivers State, the high court dissolved local government councils on the grounds the process that led to their emergence was 'illegal'. Local government councils have been dissolved by the Plateau state government for alleged acts of corruption and mismanagement of funds. The sacked local government officials in Plateau and Rivers have gone to the courts to challenge the legality of the dissolution. Social Attacks by suspected insurgents persisted in the month despite concerted efforts by Nigeria and MNTF forces to defeat the JAS. Suicide bomb blasts reportedly carried out by young girls and boys were recorded across Northern and Middle-belt states. Attacks on places of worship in the fasting month of Ramadan claimed no less than 100 lives. For instance, a young girl is reported to have blown herself up in a mosque in Malari village in Borno State killing 1 people. Also attacks by insurgents on worshippers in several mosques in neighbouring Kukawa led to the killing of 97 persons. Twin bomb blasts on Sallah day also claimed an estimated lives at two Mosques in Damaturu, Yobe State. In Jos the Plateau state capital, an explosion at Yan-taya Mosque claimed over 30 lives and injured 0. Moreover, a suspected female suicide bomber died in a failed bomb attack outside a Juma'at mosque in the city of Kano. During the period, the insurgents also targeted churches. A suspected male suicide bomber reportedly killed five worshippers at a parish of Redeemed Christian Church of God in Potiskum, Yobe state. A potentially bloody bomb blast was averted when two IEDs were discovered and destroyed at the worship centre of ECWA in Tudun Wada, Jos. The targeting of worship centres is generating tensions in relations between Christians and Muslims in affected communities. For instance, suspected irate Muslim youth went on rampage following a bomb blast at the Yan-Taya Mosque and burnt down the Cherubim and Seraphim Church in the area. The youth who reportedly said they were carrying out 'reprisal' attacks also attempted to burn the ECWA Good News Church before security operatives brought the situation under control. Suspected JAS insurgents continued to attacks rural villages in Borno State during the month. JAS reportedly attacked Mussaram and two neighbouring villages killing 8 boys and men. The insurgents also attacked Miringa village reportedly killing men who had escaped conscription into JAS. 3
The insurgents took 13 men from selected homes and shot them at the Eid prayer ground outside the village for allegedly fleeing when JAS tried to conscript them. JAS insurgents also continued to dare the Nigerian military by continuing on their campaign to seize Maiduguri, the Borno State capital. Maiduguri residents were alerted to gun battles by 10 explosions as Nigerian troops and JAS insurgence were engaged in a fierce battle in Zabarmari and Muna Villages at the outskirts of Maiduguri. Members of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) are reported to have joined the military to prevent the insurgents from gaining entry into the city. JAS has so far made about five attempts since 01 to seize Maiduguri. Attempts by security agencies to check crime violent crimes are yielding some results in several states. In Kano State, special operations to stop 'Yan Daba' a youth gang blamed for several acts of violence during the Ramadan period led to the arrest and prosecution of over 100 youths. In Kaduna, collaborative efforts with neighbouring Jigawa, Katsina and Niger states to combat the use of borders as hideouts by cattle rustlers have resulted in the arrest of 1 persons suspected of engaging in cattle rustling and the recovery of over 000 cows. In the Niger Delta states where incidents of armed robbery and kidnapping have persisted despite deterrent efforts by governments, governments are seeking ways to introduce stiffer penalties. For instance, the Government of Rivers State has commenced the process of amending the law on kidnapping to include stiffer sanctions. Economic Economic activities continued to suffer from persistent fuel scarcity in major cities including Abuja. The erratic fuel and power supply meant that most businesses operated below production capacity at a higher cost. Cost of food items maintained a steady rise with traders and farmers citing high rate of foreign exchange and poor yield of produce as factors driving inflation. Despite these constraints, food and textile markets recorded high turnout of customers who trooped in to purchase items in preparation for the Eid-el Fitri celebrations. Low levels of activities were recorded across several government ministries and parastatals even as state governments struggled to pay up salary areas to civil servants. In the affected states, economic transactions remained minimal despite the payment of some months' salaries to the affected workers. Uncertainty about regularity of salaries contributed to poor demand. The persistent JAS attacks on villages and markets continued to affect livelihood in the North East. There are indications that the declining population as a result of killings and internal displacement is affecting the workforce for agricultural production. The persistent climate of fear due to sporadic attacks by suspected JAS insurgents has affected commerce and agriculture. National Context President Buhari's visit to the United States Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has undertaken his first official visit to the United States of America at the instance of President Barack Obama. The agenda for the visit included issues bordering on foreign relations, trade and investments, corruption and military defence cooperation between the two nations. However, topmost on the minds of Nigerians was the lingering issue of Nigeria's access to sophisticated military equipment necessary for a decisive fight against the JAS insurgents. It may be recalled that the United States had denied Nigeria's request to purchase military wares during the President Goodluck Jonathan administration on account of alleged Human Rights violations by members of the Nigerian army.
Hopes had been high that President Buhari's much applauded 'change' agenda coupled with his bold step in sacking the heads of the Nation's Army, Navy and Air force would be enough to sway the United States into changing its earlier stance. However, these aspirations were not actualised as President Obama affirmed his country's stance not to aid military operation of nations involved in violating the Human Rights of its own people. Although there were no commitments on resumption of arms sales, there were indications of improved diplomatic relations between Nigeria and the US as a result of the visit. Update on Regional Response to JAS The increase in insurgent attacks across Northern Nigeria has sparked concerns that earlier territorial gains by the armies of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon in the region are being eroded. The four countries had launched joint offensives against the insurgents early this year with significant success. This had raised hopes about early end of the insurgency. However, JAS not only attacked Nigerian towns and villages but also launched attacks in neighbouring countries. For instance, twin suicide bomb attacks at an army camp in Fotokol in northern Cameroon are reported to have led to the death of 11 persons. The explosions reportedly occurred 0 metres apart within a few seconds, near a camp of Cameroon's Rapid Intervention Battalion. Similar attacks by suspected JAS insurgents at communities surrounding Bosso and Doso in Diffa Province of Niger Republic left unspecified number of males killed as the Nigerien forces stationed there failed to match the fire force of the insurgents. The MNJTF is being strengthened. A new regional fighting force comprising 8,700 troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin is due to be deployed at the end of the month in renewed efforts at quelling the insurgent attacks. Update on Humanitarian situation The Nigerian military has released 180 detainees held for several months on suspicion of collaboration with JAS. The detainees including toddlers and babies regained freedom this month after investigations cleared them of any links to the dreaded Islamic insurgent group. Several of those released have joined the ever growing number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in poorly-resourced camps. While there are growing concerns about the IDPs in camps, there are growing evidence that some IDPs have not been identified and are not receiving support. For instance, Agaji Global Unity Foundation, a Nongovernmental Organisation reportedly discovered over 788 Displaced Persons in various camps outside Yola, Adamawa State. The displaced persons have not been located and supported by government and nongovernmental actors since taking refuge in the area 10 months ago. There are concerns that many of the displaced persons who migrated from Chibok, Michika, Hong, Madagali and Gwoza have died of starvation and poor sanitation. The rising threat of Radio Biafra Brewing tensions over the anti-government broadcasts of Radio Biafra has continued to cause concerns especially among residents of the South East and South who receive signals from the illegal radio station.. The station, which operates from an unknown location, is known to mobilise ethnic and sectarian sentiments in its bid for the actualization of the 'Republic of Biafra'. Efforts by government regulatory agencies to take the station off the air have not yielded results. There are concerns that the inflammatory reports and commentaries on radio might trigger violence in the pervading context of inter-ethnic rivalry and distrust.
IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast Humanitarian programmes operating or planning to operate in the Northeast would be impacted by the overall movement of citizens in the area. Specifically, the recent attacks on communities along the MaiduguriDamaturu road that had previously been safe from attacks suggests that the breadth and reach of the insurgent actions has not been abated by the relocation of the military headquarters to Maiduguri, and that the humanitarian challenges for various actors continues to expand. Programmes working on humanitarian assistance should consider the shifting dynamics of IDPs. It is recommended that programmes working on humanitarian assistance, early recovery, and emergency assistance conduct updated needs assessments for those newly displaced persons in order to adequately support their relocation back to their community of origin once it has been reclaimed by security forces. It is also recommended that additional consideration be given to the host community who are absorbing more displaced persons to mitigate any tensions which may arise from providing assistance to the IDPs alone. The continued action of JAS has implications for overall peace and security in the region, as it calls into question the Nigerian military's claims of victory over the insurgency. Allegations of continued presence of JAS staging points along the Lake Chad Basin communities including cross border mobilization in Cameroon in the month of July suggests that military and overall Multi-National Task Force (MNTF) will need to focus efforts on the cross-border areas that remain vulnerable to insurgents. For programmes working on military support and governance programming at the LGA or state level in the Northeast, it is recommended to focus military support efforts to MNTF to combat forward operating locations that continue to persist around the Lake Chad Basin area. Such programmes should also work with local and traditional rulers in the region to ensure that community members in cross-border areas do not perceive their region as beyond the scope of assistance by international development and security actors. It is recommended that military cooperation programmes are continued and strengthened to accommodate the persistent presence of insurgents in cross-border areas and the spill-over effect that is currently plaguing northern Cameroon. The month of July also witnessed the uptick in violent attacks on places of worship in the Northeast, with several mosques and churches coming under attack. This focused attack on places of worship has significant implications for programming as it underscores the importance of sustained intra-faith as well as inter-faith dialogue. For programmes working on peacebuilding including psycho-social support, reconciliatory processes and inter-faith dialogue, it is important to continue attention to both intra-faith as well as inter-faith conflict dynamics as the targeting of public locations such as places of worship may continue and has the potential to manifest as inter-communal or inter-religious conflict if not combated appropriately. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes working on peacebuilding in the Northeast should strengthen dialogue efforts at the community level in light of the recent wave of attacks on places of worship. Additional support to community level dialogue to address these growing dynamics at the LGA level may also benefit overall peace and security in the region. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano Inter-religious and inter-communal conflict continued in Kano in the month of July, all of which have implications for overall peace and security in the state. The month of July witnessed two major incidents related to religious/inter-religious conflict the arrest of alleged members of the youth gang 'Yan Daba' on allegations of committing several acts of violence during the Ramadan period as well as the contentious case of 13 followers of the Tijaniya Islamic sect who were accused of blasphemy against the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). In the case of the Tijaniya Islamic sect, the case was reviewed and judgement was passed by the Sharia court of Appeal in Rijiyar Lemo quarters of Kano city for 9 of 13 of the accused. This case will have implications for programmes working on inter-communal peacebuilding, inter-religious dialogue, and overall governance in Kano state. It is likely to have long-term effects on members of the affected sect who may perceive themselves persecuted or alienated. 6
Therefore, it is recommended for programmes working on peacebuilding, particularly inter-faith dialogue to facilitate additional space for inter-communal and inter-religious dialogue throughout the process of the trial of the 'Yan Daba' youth and the follow up on the Tijaniya sect. Allowing additional dialogue at the community level with strong facilitation and involvement of multiple stakeholders may enable voices of minorities that feel marginalized or isolated from the decision making to voice their concerns and feel more included at the community and state level in Kano. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt Continued incidences of cattle rustling in the Middle Belt have resulted in several states actively combating perpetrators and the recovery of property in Jigawa, Katsina as well as Kaduna and Niger States. The newly adopted strategy of prosecuting those allegedly connected with rustling has implication for programmes working on economic recovery, market development, governance and peacebuilding. This is because the inter-communal nature of conflicts over cattle rustling in the Middle Belt may be exacerbated by communities seeking out and recovering property without recourse to formal legal or judicial processes. It is recommended that programmes working on these diverse sectors consider the long-term implications for the new approach to recovery of stolen of cattle. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta The broadcasts of Radio Biafra, against the Nigerian government and some ethnic groups have a tendency to deepen ethnic divisions. The continuation of these broadcasts around the Port Harcourt areas has significant implications for peace and security in the Niger Delta as the content has been considered forms of hate speech. Programmes working in this area should be conscious of the possibility of hate speech triggering violence. There is need for initiatives to counter the divisive narratives of Radio Biafra even as government takes necessary measures to track and stop the broadcasts. The Niger Delta region continued to witness violent crime. This suggests that non-state actors continue to work outside the legal framework and threaten peace and security. In order to combat the crime, the Rivers State Government has initiated the process of amending the law prohibiting kidnapping to include stiffer punishment. It is recommended that programmes working on extractive resources and governance should consider the risks of organized crimes to their work. Programmes should also pressure government at all levels, the judiciary and law enforcement agencies to tackle violent and organized crime. 7