11th ILERA European Congress September 216, Milan, Italy The Future of ER as an Academic Field Dong-One Kim President, ILERA Dean, Korea University Business School I thank Ki-Jung Kim for his research assistance and Thomas Kochan, Bruce Kaufman, John Budd, and Paula Voos for their valuable comments on the earlier version of this presentation.
Contents Ⅰ. Is ER relevant? Ⅱ. Three views about the future of ER as an academic field Ⅲ. Empirical analyses and results Ⅳ. Implications for ER research Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 2
Is ER relevant? Decreasing union density and collective bargaining coverage in developed countries (not necessarily in developing countries) Growing doubts that ER is relevant to the changing employment environment Is ER at a crossroads? This presentation examined how ER researchers have responded and discussed implications for the field Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 3
Three views about the future of ER as an academic field 1. Wait for unions and collective bargaining to return Maintain the status quo Union-focused research revitalized in repeated historical cycles 2. Back to the Original Industrial Relations (OIR) Widen research focus to restore the original IR OIR includes all aspects of employment relations private and public, union and non-union, and formal and informal 3. Embrace the new world Turn attention to newly emerging labor problems Artificial intelligence, 4 th Industrial Revolution, emotional labor, immigrant workers, contingent workers, etc. Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 4
Empirical analyses and results Research methods to examine how ER research accommodates reality 1 Analyzed all abstracts in 5 major ER journals Object of analysis (period) 1) British Journal of Industrial Relations (199-214) 2) Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society (1987-214) 3) Industrial & Labor Relations Review (1947-214) 4) Journal of Industrial Relations (1975-214) 5) Relations industrielles / Industrial Relations (1964-214) * From the dates when each journal started to provide abstracts Appearance Ratio Measure = The number of keyword appearances in the 5 journals within a year The number of total abstracts in the 5 journals within a year 1 Kim, Ki-Jung. 215. "Trends of IR Research in Four Western Countries: Does Research Adapt to the Changing World of Work?", Master s Thesis, Korea University Business School. Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 5
Empirical analyses and results Traditional topics have not withered away, but slightly declined over time Strikes Collective Bargaining Appearance Ratio,6,5,4,3,2,1 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 Linear trend line slope -.1 P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope. Blue dots = frequency; Red line = linear trend Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 6
Empirical analyses and results Mediation Arbitration,4,7,35,6 Appearance Ratio,3,25,2,15,1,5,4,3,2,5,1 213 27 21 1995 1989 1983 1977 1971 1965 1959 1953 1947 213 27 21 1995 1989 1983 1977 1971 1965 1959 1953 1947 Linear trend line slope -.1 P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope -.1 Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 7
Empirical analyses and results Research in ER closely embraces new world and new reality Non union Family,25,14 Appearance Ratio,2,15,1,5 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213,12,1,8,6,4,2 -,2 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 Linear trend line slope.1** P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope.1** Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 8
Empirical analyses and results Temporary Contingent,14,12 Appearance Ratio,12,1,8,6,4,2,1,8,6,4,2 -,2 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 -,2 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 Linear trend line slope.1** P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope.1** Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 9
Empirical analyses and results Global Immigrants,6,3 Appearance Ratio,5,4,3,2,1,25,2,15,1,5 -,1 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 -,5 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 Linear trend line slope.2** P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope.2** Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 1
Empirical analyses and results Gender Women,4,6 Appearance Ratio,35,3,25,2,15,1,5 -,5 -,1 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213,5,4,3,2,1 -,1 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 21 27 213 Linear trend line slope.3** P<.5. ** P<.1. (two-tailed) Linear trend line slope.5** Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 11
Empirical analyses and results Empirical results: Collective intelligence 1) Weakly supports the 1 st view: ER research has not ignored traditional topics 2) Tends to support the 2 nd view: ER research covers private and public, union and non-union, and formal and informal sectors 3) Strongly supports the 3 rd view ER research continuously refocuses on the most recent topics and steadfastly follows new world and new reality Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 12
Implications for ER research ER is a unique field that deals with the core subjects of employment relationships Other related fields/disciplines cover only parts of the entire domain of employment relationships (e.g., labor economics, labor law, human resource management, industrial sociology) However, to make value-added contributions to social science as a distinctive field, ER should be unique in 3 dimensions: subjects, theories, and methodologies Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 13
Map of the ER field Labor Economics Industrial Sociology ER Labor Law Human Resources Management Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 14
Implications for ER research: Subjects 1. Embrace new world of work We cannot be 21 st century Luddites We need more active research on the following Artificial Intelligence 4 th Industrial Revolution Immigrants Developing countries In 23, two-thirds of global middle class will reside in Asia Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 15
Regional comparison of GDP growth rates 9 Growth Rate of GDP 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 Asia Western Europe Northern Europe Eastern Europe North America Central and South America 21 24 27 21 213 Asia: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam Central and South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico Western Europe: United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands Northern Europe: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway Eastern Europe: Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia North America: United States, Canada Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 16
Increasing ratio of middle class population in Asia Ratio of Middle Class (% of middle class in the world by continent) 8 6 4 2 18 1 7 36 22 North America Europe Central and South America 14 1 8 6 28 29 22 23 54 66 2 2 2 6 5 5 Asia sub-sahara Africa the Middle East and North Africa Size of Middle Class (Population) unit : 1 million 6 5 4 3 2 1 338 333 322 664 73 68 181 251 313 North America Europe Central and South America 3228 174 525 Asia 32 57 17 15 165 234 sub-sahara Africa 1845 3249 4884 the Middle East The Middle Class and North Africa of the World 29 22 23 Source : Homi Kharas (21). The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries Working paper No. 285, OECD Development Center Definition of the middle class: all those living in households with daily per capita incomes of between USD1 and USD1 in PPP terms. (PPP: Purchasing Power Parity)
Implications for ER research: Subjects 2. Don t ignore traditional topics Unions and collective bargaining can rebound in developed countries Historically, unions and collective bargaining show longterm cyclical trends Becoming ever more important in emerging economies (China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Eastern Europe, etc.) Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 18
Regional comparison of labor disputes 15. 1. 5. - ASIA 122.998 62.5 37.12 2.193 9.828 19.717 1994 1998 22 26 21 214 6 4 2 WESTERN EUROPE 535,2 446,6 53, 319,8 283, 169,7 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 1 5 CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA 52,3 598,5 567, 374,3 39, 21,7 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 5 3 1-1 NORTHERN EUROPE 27, 34, 227,3 119,8 11,5 16,3 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 5 3 1 2973,8 EASTERN EUROPE 2622, 1915,6 44, 163,6 7,3 5 3 1 219,5 NORTH AMERICA 183,5 28,5 157 11,5 15,5-1 1992 1996 2 24 28 212-1 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 Asia: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam Central and South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico Western Europe: United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands Northern Europe: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway Eastern Europe: Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia North America: United States, Canada Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 19
Implications for ER research Old Labor Problems New Labor Problems Developed Countries Declining trade union density Declining collective bargaining Cyclical? Need for nonunion employee representation Contingent worker problems Developing Countries Strong influence of trade unions Intensifying labor disputes Need for nonunion employee representation Contingent worker problems Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 2
Implications for ER research: Theories 1. Widen scope of ER for better theoretical developments From 193 the field gravitated toward a more narrowed focus on unions and collective bargaining The world of work has become too complicated; we need a broader and more comprehensive approach by returning to the OIR framework Law Economics Human resource management More interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary approaches leading to rich theoretical contributions Increasing initiatives and calls to create knowledge through approaches from various disciplines Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 21
Implications for ER research: Theories 2. Embrace all ideologies and theoretical foundations: Marxists and radical theorists Feminists Unitarists Neo-classical economists Pluralists Historically ER has been a field, not a discipline Early role of labor economics in the field of ER Current influence of HRM on the field of ER Too much emphasis on normative unity might make the field similar to an advocacy/interest group Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 22
Implications for ER research: Theories 3. Update the theoretical framework of ER: A task long overdue Current theoretical framework (e.g., Dunlop, 1958) was largely based upon the stable situation in the post-war period: Strong existence of labor unions and homogenous interests among workers Organizations with bureaucratic internal labor market Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 23
Implications for ER research: Theories 3. Update the theoretical framework of ER: A task long overdue Globalization, the 4 th industrial revolution, and economic and social polarization are leading to new employment patterns and consequently new employment relations Networked, fissured, decentralized organizations through franchising, subcontracting, third party management, global supply chain, and outsourcing Emergence of new ER actors and diverse interests among them Advent of alternative representation forms (e.g., Sherpashare for Uber drivers, Glassdoor, Coworkers.com) other than union/nonunion Emerging social identity groups (e.g., immigrants, feminist groups) Labor policy/advocacy groups, labor NGOs in China, religious groups protecting foreign workers in Korea Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 24
Implications for ER research: Methodologies 1. Diversify research methodologies Research methodologies in ER became increasingly quantitative, losing its unique, qualitative research traditions originated from German historical school and Wisconsin school ER research needs to be closer to workplaces Ethnography Case study Narrative study Participant observation fsqca (fuzzy set/qualitative Comparative Analysis) Sep. 216 Dong-One Kim 25
Thank you!