Research Corporation September 25, 2006 Summary and Interpretation of the Federal Bureau of Investigation s Uniform Crime Report, 2005 Sandra J. Erickson, MFS Research Associate Rosemary J. Erickson, Ph.D. President - i -
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS...i INDEX OF TABLES AND CHARTS...i CRIME VOLUME... 1 CRIME RATE... 2 CRIME DETAILS AND TRENDS... 3 CRIME BY TEN LARGEST CITIES... 7 CRIME BY SELECTED CITIES OF VARYING SIZE... 9 CONVENIENCE STORES, GAS STATIONS AND BANKS... 14 AUTHORS CONCLUSIONS:... 16 INDEX OF TABLES AND CHARTS TABLE 1: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME VOLUME... 1 TABLE 2: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME RATE... 3 CHART 1: VIOLENT CRIME BY OFFENSE... 4 CHART 2: FELONY MURDER CIRCUMSTANCES... 4 CHART 3: MURDER CIRCUMSTANCES OTHER THAN FELONY... 5 CHART 4: MURDER VICTIMS BY RACE AND SEX... 5 CHART 5: NUMBER OF MURDERS 1986 2005... 6 CHART 6: NUMBER OF ROBBERIES 1986 2005... 7 CHART 7: VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000) IN TEN LARGEST CITIES... 7 TABLE 3: TEN LARGEST CITIES RANKED BY SIZE AND VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000)... 8 CHART 8: MURDER RATE (Per 100,000) IN TEN LARGEST CITIES... 8 TABLE 4: TEN LARGEST CITIES RANKED BY SIZE AND MURDER RATE (Per 100,000)... 9 TABLE 5: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME RATE BY CITY SIZE... 10 CHART 9: VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000) BY SELECTED CITY... 11 TABLE 6: PERCENT CHANGE IN MURDER RATE BY CITY SIZE... 12 CHART 10: MURDER RATE (Per 100,000) BY SELECTED CITY... 13 CHART 11: PERCENT CHANGE IN ROBBERY VOLUME FROM PREVIOUS YEAR 2004-2005... 14 CHART 12: PERCENT CHANGE IN ROBBERY VOLUME 2001 2005... 14 CHART 13: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION ROBBERY VOLUME 2005... 15 CHART 14: AVERAGE LOSS PER ROBBERY... 15 - i -
Summary and Interpretation of the Federal Bureau of Investigation s Uniform Crime Report, 2005 Sandra J. Erickson, MFS 1 and Rosemary J. Erickson, Ph.D. 2 Research Corporation September 25, 2006 The Federal Bureau of Investigation released its annual report regarding crime in the United States in 2005 on September 18, 2006. The FBI format and content of reporting changed this year, and thus we, at, feel it needs interpretation to more completely understand the data. We have been studying crime trends for over 20 years. The key findings are discussed and interpreted below for 2005. CRIME VOLUME This section is on crime volume, as compared to crime rate, which is the number of offenses per 100,000 persons. Crime volume is based on the total number of crimes only. Violent crime increased 2.3% from 2004 to 2005, while property crime volume decreased 1.5% for the same period. Violent crime increased in the categories of murder (+3.4%), robbery (+3.9%) and aggravated assault (+1.8%), and rape decreased by 1.2%. For property crimes, burglary was up 0.8%, larceny/theft was down 2.4%, and motor vehicle theft was up 0.2%. The percentage change from 2004 to 2005 is shown in Table 1, followed by the 5-year trend: TABLE 1: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME VOLUME CRIME CATEGORY 2004-2005 FIVE YEAR PERIOD (2001-2005) Violent Crime +2.3% Murder +3.4% 1,460,000 1,440,000 1,420,000 1,400,000 1,380,000 1,360,000 1,340,000 1,320,000 16,800 16,600 16,400 16,200 16,000 15,800 15,600 Rape -1.2% Robbery +3.9% Aggravated Assault +1.8% 96,000 95,000 94,000 93,000 92,000 91,000 90,000 89,000 88,000 430,000 425,000 420,000 415,000 410,000 405,000 400,000 395,000 390,000 920,000 900,000 880,000 860,000 840,000 820,000 800,000 1 Sandra J. Erickson holds a Masters in Forensic Science. She is a research associate at Research. 2 Rosemary J. Erickson holds a Ph.D. in Sociology: Justice. She is president of Research Corporation. - 1 -
For the five year period from 2001 to 2005, violent crime overall was down 3.4%. Aggravated assault decreased the most at 5.1%, followed by robbery with a decrease of 1.5%. Both murder and rape increased during that five-year period with murders up 4.1% and rapes up 3.4%. In addition to increases and decreases in crime, it is important to keep in mind the actual volume of the numbers. There were 16,692 murders in 2005, up from 16,137 murders in 2004. There were 417,122 robberies reported in the United States in 2005, up from 401,326 in 2004. Rapes totaled 93,934 in 2005, down slightly from 94,635 in 2004. In 2005, there were 862,947 aggravated assaults, up from 854,911 in 2004. All regions of the country experienced an increase in murder volume in 2005, with the Northeast experiencing the greatest increase (5.4%). The Midwest saw an increase of 4.7%, followed by the West with an increase of 3.1%. The South had an increase of 2.2%. The number of robberies has decreased 22.1% over the last ten years, and 23.1% over the last twenty years. Firearms were used in 42.1% of all robberies in 2005, with the South experiencing the highest percentage of firearm usage (48.3%) and the Northeast the lowest (35.1%). In 2005, robbery arrests of persons under 15 increased 4.3%, robbery arrests of persons 18 and under increased 11.4%, and arrests of robbers 18 and older increased 1.1%. CRIME RATE This section is on rate, not volume. Rate is the number of offenses per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime rate increased 1.3% from the 2004 rate. The property crime rate decreased 2.4%. From 2004 to 2005 the rate of all violent offenses was up over the previous year, except for rape (down 1.2%). With its 2.9% increase over the previous year, robbery had the greatest increase of all the categories, followed closely by murder with a 2.4% increase. Property crime rates fell 2.1% from the previous year. The violent crime rate was down 7% over the five-year period. Aggravated assault decreased 8.6%, followed by robbery with a decrease of 5.2%. Rape decreased 0.5% during the 5-year period, but murders were up 0.2%. The changes in violent crime rates from 2003 to 2004 are shown in Table 2, followed by the five-year trend: - 2 -
TABLE 2: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME RATE CRIME CATEGORY 2004-2005 FIVE YEAR PERIOD (2001-2005) Violent Crime +1.3% 510.0 500.0 490.0 480.0 470.0 460.0 450.0 440.0 Murder +2.4% Rape -2.1% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 33.5 33.0 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 Robbery +2.9% 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 Aggravated Assault +0.9% 330.0 320.0 310.0 300.0 290.0 280.0 270.0 CRIME DETAILS AND TRENDS Aggravated assault accounted for 62.1% of the violent crimes in 2005. Robbery accounted for 30.0%, forcible rape accounted for 6.8%, and murder accounted for 1.2% of the violent crimes in 2005, as shown in Chart 1. - 3 -
CHART 1: VIOLENT CRIME BY OFFENSE Rape, 6.8% Murder, 1.2% Robbery, 30.0% Aggravated Assault, 62.1% Chart 2 shows the breakdown of murders that occurred during the commission of other felonies. Of all felony murders, the most frequent (921) were related to robberies, and narcotics-related were second (589). CHART 2: FELONY MURDER CIRCUMSTANCES Felony Murder Circumstances - 2005 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 44 Rape 921 Robbery 88 Burglary 12 31 37 13 9 Larceny-theft Motor vehicle theft Arson Prostitution and commercialized vice Other sex offenses 589 Narcotic drug laws 2 Gambling Chart 3 illustrates murders occurring for reasons other than felonies. By far, the most common circumstance is arguments related to alcohol, narcotics, money, property, and - 4 -
other arguments. Juvenile gang killing was the second most frequent for which circumstances are known. CHART 3: MURDER CIRCUMSTANCES OTHER THAN FELONY 4,000 3,692 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,917 1,500 1,000 754 500 0 117 Romantic triangle 26 Child killed by babysitter 120 97 Braw l due to influence of alcohol Braw l due to influence of narcotics 211 Argument over money or property Other arguments 96 Gangland killings Juvenile gang killings 12 2 Institutional killings Sniper attack Other not specified Murder victims were killed with firearms 68% of the time in 2005. Chart 4 shows murder victims by race and sex. In 2005, 78.7% of known murder victims were male. Murder victims, for whom race was known, were 48.7% white, 48.6% black, and the remaining victims were from other or unknown races. CHART 4: MURDER VICTIMS BY RACE AND SEX 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 5,205 6,042 Male 286 1,928 1,082 150 104 41 Female White Black Other race Unknown race - 5 -
When the relationships of murder victims and offenders were known, 39% were killed by an acquaintance, 22.4% of victims were slain by family members, 8% by a boyfriend or girlfriend, and 25.4% were murdered by strangers. Looking at the perpetrator information in other manners reveals two alarming trends. In 1965, for example, 5% of all murder perpetrators were unknown. Ten years ago, in 1996, that percentage was 35%. In 2005, the percentage of unknown perpetrators had increased to 45% -- nearly half of all murders. Ten years ago, 50% of murder victims were killed by strangers or unknown. In 2005 that percentage had increased to 59.1%. In short, more murders are unsolved and more are committed by strangers than in preceding decades. Chart 5 depicts the 20-year trend in number of murders. Although the number of murders in 2005 is below that of twenty years ago, there has been a trend upward in recent years. CHART 5: NUMBER OF MURDERS 1986 2005 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Chart 6 shows the 20-year trend for robbery. As with the number of murders, robbery volume for 2005 is below that of twenty years ago. However, the number of robberies increased from 2004 to 2005. - 6 -
CHART 6: NUMBER OF ROBBERIES 1986 2005 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CRIME BY TEN LARGEST CITIES Chart 7 shows the violent crime rate for America s ten largest cities 3. The national average violent crime rate was 469.2. Philadelphia and Dallas experienced the highest rates, with 1467 and 1254, respectively. San Diego (519) and San Jose (384) were lowest. CHART 7: VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000) IN TEN LARGEST CITIES National average 469.2 Philadelphia 1,467.1 Dallas Houston 1,254.1 1,172.5 Los Angeles Phoenix New York San Antonio 820.6 729.1 673.1 637.2 San Diego 519.0 San Jose 383.5 Chicago Unknown 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 3 Limited data was available for Illinois for 2005, and therefore calculating a violent crime rate for Chicago was not possible. - 7 -
Table 3 shows America s ten largest cities ranked first by size and then by violent crime rate in 2005. TABLE 3: TEN LARGEST CITIES RANKED BY SIZE AND VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000) CITY SIZE VIOLENT CRIME RATE New York 1 6 Los Angeles 2 4 Chicago 3 Unknown Houston 4 3 Philadelphia 5 1 Phoenix 6 5 San Antonio 7 7 San Diego 8 8 Dallas 9 2 San Jose 10 9 Chart 8 shows the murder rates for the ten largest cities in 2005. The same two cities were highest when ranked by murder rate, as were the same two lowest cities. The nationwide murder rate was 5.6 per 100,000 in 2005. Philadelphia s rate was nearly five times higher, and both San Diego and San Jose had rates below the national average. CHART 8: MURDER RATE (Per 100,000) IN TEN LARGEST CITIES National average 5.6 Philadelphia 25.6 Dallas Houston Chicago Phoenix 16.4 16.3 15.6 15.0 Los Angeles 12.6 San Antonio New York 6.8 6.6 San Diego 4.0 San Jose 2.9 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0-8 -
Table 4 shows America s ten largest cities ranked first by size and then by murder rate in 2005. TABLE 4: TEN LARGEST CITIES RANKED BY SIZE AND MURDER RATE (Per 100,000) CITY SIZE MURDER RATE New York 1 8 Los Angeles 2 6 Chicago 3 4 Houston 4 3 Philadelphia 5 1 Phoenix 6 5 San Antonio 7 7 San Diego 8 9 Dallas 9 2 San Jose 10 10 CRIME BY SELECTED CITIES OF VARYING SIZE Increases in violent crime rates varied greatly depending on city size. Table 5 below shows those changes in rates, from 2004 to 2005. The greatest increase (9.2%) was in cities with populations between 500,000 and 999,999. The only category to experience a decrease in the violent crime rate was cities with a population of 1 million and higher. - 9 -
TABLE 5: PERCENT CHANGE IN VIOLENT CRIME RATE BY CITY SIZE CITY SIZE 2004-2005 All cities +2.6% All cities 250,000 and higher +3.2% All cities 1,000,000 and higher -0.4% 500,000 to 999,999 +9.2% 250,000 to 499,999 +2.4% 100,000 to 249,999 +3.7 50,000 to 99,999 +1.4% 25,000 to 49,999 +2.5 10,000 to 24,999 +0.3 Under 10,000 +1.2 Chart 9 shows the violent crime rate by cities of varying populations 4. The nationwide violent crime rate was 469.2 per 100,000 in 2005. Of the selected cities, Orlando and Little Rock had the highest rates of violent crime, with 1807.5 and 1771.8, respectively. 4 The cities were selected by the authors for inclusion. - 10 -
CHART 9: VIOLENT CRIME RATE (Per 100,000) BY SELECTED CITY National average 469.2 Orlando Little Rock 1807.5 1771.8 Nashville Miami Philadelphia, PA Kansas City, MO Washington, D.C. Boston, MA Dallas Baton Rouge Cincinnati, OH Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC Sacramento Milw aukee Pittsburgh Albuquerque Fort Lauderdale Oklahoma City Columbus Los Angeles San Francisco Denver Las Vegas Anchorage Phoenix Seattle New York, NY Fort Worth 1611.0 1579.7 1467.1 1459.2 1401.6 1317.7 1254.1 1201.9 1184.6 1171.6 1151.2 1024.7 1023.3 951.8 893.1 853.5 836.7 820.6 798.9 795.7 743.5 735.6 729.1 709.4 673.1 639.2 San Diego El Paso Portland 434.3 416.5 519.0 0 500 1000 1500 2000-11 -
As with the rates for violent crime, the murder rates vary depending on city size. Table 6 shows those changes in rates, from 2004 to 2005. Cities with populations between 50,000 and 499,999 experienced the greatest increase. The only category to experience a decrease in the murder rate was cities with a population of 10,000 to 25,000. TABLE 6: PERCENT CHANGE IN MURDER RATE BY CITY SIZE CITY SIZE 2004-2005 All cities +5.7% All cities 250,000 and higher +3.5% All cities 1,000,000 and higher +0.6% 500,000 to 999,999 +3.6% 250,000 to 499,999 +8.7% 100,000 to 249,999 +12.4% 50,000 to 99,999 +11.0% 25,000 to 49,999 +4.0 10,000 to 24,999-0.9 Under 10,000 +6.4 Chart 10 shows the murder rate for the same cities examined above. Of these cities, Washington, D.C. (35.4) and Kansas City (28.1) had the highest murder rates with a national murder rate of 5.6, Washington D.C. is almost seven times higher and Kansas City is five times higher. - 12 -
CHART 10: MURDER RATE (Per 100,000) BY SELECTED CITY National Average 5.6 Washington, D.C. Kansas City, MO Philadelphia Cincinnati Little Rock Baton Rouge Milw aukee Pittsburgh Nashville Dallas Phoenix Columbus Miami Boston San Francisco Los Angeles Charlotte Sacramento Las Vegas Albuquerque Orlando Denver Oklahoma City Fort Worth Fort Lauderdale New York Anchorage Portland Seattle San Diego El Paso 2.3 6.6 5.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 17.1 16.4 15.0 14.0 13.9 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.6 11.4 11.3 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.8 8.9 22.1 21.8 20.6 19.0 25.6 25.1 28.1 35.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40-13 -
CONVENIENCE STORES, GAS STATIONS AND BANKS Convenience store robbery volume was down 3.4% from 2004 to 2005. Gas station robbery volume was up 9.1% from 2004 to 2005. CHART 11: PERCENT CHANGE IN ROBBERY VOLUME FROM PREVIOUS YEAR 2004-2005 15 10 5 9.1 Bank robbery volume was down 10.4% from 2004 to 2005. In 2005, commercial house robberies, street/highway robberies, and residential robberies were all up. 0-5 -10-15 -3.4-10.4 C-Stores Gas Stations Banks Percent Change Convenience store robbery volume was down 14.3% in the 5- year period since 2001. Gas station robbery volume was down 1.7% in the 5-year period since 2001. Bank robbery volume was down 14.6% in the same five-year period from 2001. CHART 12: PERCENT CHANGE IN ROBBERY VOLUME 2001 2005 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 -16-14.3 C-Stores -1.7 Gas Stations -14.6 Banks Percent Change - 14 -
Convenience store robbery made up 5.7% of the total robberies in 2005, down from 6.1% the prior year. CHART 13: PERCENT DISTRIBUTION ROBBERY VOLUME 2005 2.8% Gas station robbery made up 2.8% of the total robberies in 2004, up from 2.7% in 2004. Bank robberies made up 2.1% of the total robberies in 2005, down from 2.5% the prior year. 14.2% 5.7% 2.1% 44.1% 14.3% 16.7% Street/High Misc Comm House Residence C-Store Bank Gas/Service St In 2005, convenience stores had an average dollar loss of $625, down from $653 the previous year. Gas station average dollar loss in 2005 was $1,104, nearly twice that of convenience stores, down significantly from $1,749 the year before. CHART 14: AVERAGE LOSS PER ROBBERY $4,500 $4,221 $4,169 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 2004 $2,000 $1,749 2005 Banks had by far the highest average dollar loss at $4,169, down slightly from $4,221 in 2004. $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 $1,104 $653 $625 C-Stores Gas Stations Banks Authors Note: These are not just register losses, but include safe and merchandise losses. - 15 -
AUTHORS CONCLUSIONS: While you will read reports that crime has been decreasing for a decade, it has been increasing in certain categories and in certain geographic areas off and on ever since 2000, and this trend continues with this report for 2005. It is especially significant that the largest increases are in the more violent crimes of murder and robbery, each up almost 4%. The trend is largely due to the increasing numbers in the crime-committing age group of 18 to 25, and this increase had been anticipated by criminologists. - 16 -