An Update from Washington Presented by The Franklin Partnership, LLP Policy Resolution Group at Bracewell March 2018
Your Team in Washington, D.C. Lobbying Firm The Franklin Partnership, LLP Bi-partisan Washington, D.C.-based government relations firm 80 years combined experience; representing manufacturing industry since 2003 Clients include: Manufacturing associations, defense manufacturers, hospitals, cities Strategic Communications Firm Policy Resolution Group at Bracewell Wash, D.C.-based public affairs & strategic communications consultants Promote NTMA and PMA in print, digital and other media Support Franklin Partnership government relations efforts by designing and implementing coordinated strategic communications strategy Representing metalworking industry since 2003
Whiplash the Past 5 Days in Washington Former Trump campaign staffer tells Mueller to come arrest him (before reversing) U.S. confirms North Korea used VX Gas to assassinate Kim brother in law Texans voted in the first major primary of 2018 elections Stormy Daniels wants out of agreement (Lawyer used Trump.org email address) Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum released, GOP leaders opposed South Korea announces Trump-Rocket Man meeting (White House walks it back) Over 300,000 jobs added, low unemployment continues Florida Governor signs new gun control law And its just Saturday, Exhausted Yet?
Job Skills Legislation Making Progress Perkins Loans Program Authorization/Career Technical Education Bill - House unanimously passed bill June 22, 2017 - Senate likely to include in Higher Education Act bill Higher Education Act Overhaul/Pell Grant Expansion - Change higher education to include vocational schools/industry skills training centers - House will pass in next few weeks on party lines; Senate version likely bipartisan - Allow use of Pell Grants for short term training programs with minimum 150 hours/8 weeks (down from 600 hours) - Senate held five hearings, beginning to draft their bill Administration Apprenticeship Overhaul - Sending most apprenticeship development/oversight to industry groups - Removing Department of Labor from most decision-making; industries develop own criteria - Allowing non-registered apprenticeships - Still no Assistant Secretary for Employment and Training Administration
Lowers C-Corporation rate to 21% Repeals Corporate AMT New Tax Law Creates 20% deduction for the first $315,000 of qualified business income for passthroughs (drops top effective tax rate to 29.6%) Maintains R&D Tax Credit though switches to amortization after five years All State and Local Tax/Mortgage Deductions capped at $10,000 Capital Gains unchanged at 23.8% (including Affordable Care investment tax) Estate Tax exemption doubled to $11 million per individual ($22m/couple) Full 100% business expensing for 5 years, then phased out over 5 more years Section 179 Equipment Expensing for small businesses raised to $1 million Business interest deduction up to 30% of business income
Selling the GOP Tax Plan to Voters Tax cuts for ultra wealthy Increase on some lower and middle class Cost to deficit ( tax cuts pay for themselves ) Permanent tax cuts vs. temporary reductions Ability to deduct business loan interest Doubling of Estate Tax Limitation of Mortgage Deduction Limitation of State and Local Taxes - Half of most vulnerable House GOP from CA, IL, NY, NJ - Pelosi must net 24 House seats to become Speaker 7 competitive seats in California
Current State of Trade:
Trade NAFTA and Steel, Aluminum Tariffs NAFTA Round 7 talks concluded; Autos main hold up; discussions ongoing 25% tariff on steel (flat, long, semi-finished, pipe, tube, stainless) excludes Canada, Mexico Commerce Recommends: reduce imports by 37% to increase capacity utilization to 80% from 73% 10% tariff on aluminum (plate; sheet, strip, and foil (flat rolled products); wire; bars, rods and profiles; tubes and pipes; tube and pipe fittings; castings and forgings) Concerns Raised: - Increase price and reduce availability of critical raw materials - Will lead to increased imports of stampings containing foreign steel, aluminum - Aluminum Association sent letter opposed to broad approach - Department of Defense concerned about supply - 165 import duty orders already in effect on steel - 200,000 jobs lost during 201 Steel Tariffs in 2002 - New study says 146,000 net job losses due to tariffs
Tariffs What One Voice is Saying and Doing
Current State of Politics:
Despite Chaos, Trump Still Popular Among GOP 80-90% job approval among Republicans (no change) 61-66% approval among white evangelical voters (80% in election) Appointing conservative judges Repealing environmental regulations Rolling back banking rules Passed a tax bill Trump planning for 2020 traveling to MI, PA, WI Trump first in 64 years to not visit California during 1 st year in office
Potential Democratic Party 2020 Challengers The Outside DC Beltway Candidates Gov. Steve Bullock (Montana) Gov. Andrew Cuomo (New York) Gov. John Hickenlooper (Colorado) Gov. Terry McAuliffe (Virginia) Gov. Martin O Malley (Maryland) - former Gov. Gov. Deval Patrick (Massachusetts) former Gov. Mayor Julian Castro (San Antonio), former Mayor, HUD Secretary Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (California) The Senators Kamala Harris (California) Cory Booker (New Jersey) Kirsten Gillibrand (New York) Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) Jeff Merkley (Oregon) Bernie Sanders (Vermont) Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) The Money Crowd Mark Cuban (NBA Mavericks) Howard Schultz (Starbucks) Tom Steyer (Billionaire environmentalist)
Democrats defending 10 seats Trump won Democrats must net 2 seats to take Senate control
Key GOP House Races: Pelosi Must Net 24 Seats Clinton won in 23 GOP Districts 7 Clinton seats in California 36 GOP Open Seats (17 Dem) 6 GOP Seats already Lean Democrat 19 GOP Seats as Toss-up (3 Dem) 20 GOP Seats as Lean Republican 29 GOP Seats as Lean Republican AZ-02 Martha McSally (running for Senate) CA-25 Steve Knight CA-49 Darrell Issa (retiring) CO-6 Mike Coffman FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (retiring) IL-6 Peter Roskam IL-12 Mike Bost KS-2 Kevin Yoder MI-11 Dave Trott (retiring) MI-8 Mike Bishop MN-2 Jason Lewis NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen (retiring) PA-8 Brian Fitzpatrick TX-23 Will Hurd
2018 Elections and Social Media Movement
Questions? The Franklin Partnership, LLP Omar@franklinpartnership.com jguzik@franklinpartnership.com Policy Resolution Group at Bracewell Paul.nathanson@bracewell.com www.metalworkingadvocate.org