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A journal of the American Economic Association Fall 2016

A journal of the American Economic Association Editor Enrico Moretti, University of California at Berkeley Coeditors Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego Mark Gertler, New York University Associate Editors Anat Admati, Stanford University Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University Dora Costa, University of California at Los Angeles Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Seema Jayachandran, Northwestern University Guido Lorenzoni, Northwestern University Emi Nakamura, Columbia University Richard Newell, Duke University Valerie Ramey, University of California at San Diego Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Managing Editor Timothy Taylor Assistant Editor Ann Norman Editorial offices: Journal of American Economic Association Publications 2403 Sidney St., #260 Pittsburgh, PA 15203 email: jep@jepjournal.org gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office ( ). Copyright 2016 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Printed by R. R. Donnelley Company, Jefferson City, Missouri, 65109, USA. No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by the American Economic Association. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Fall 2016, Vol. 30, No. 4. The JEP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. E-reader versions are free. For details and further information on the AEA go to https://www.aeaweb.org/. Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A.

Contents Volume 30 Number 4 Fall 2016 Symposia Immigration and Labor Markets Giovanni Peri, Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets....3 Christian Dustmann, Uta Schönberg, and Jan Stuhler, The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?.... 31 Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh, Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run... 57 Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, Çağlar Özden, and Christopher Parsons, Global Talent Flows...83 What is Happening in Game Theory? Larry Samuelson, Game Theory in Economics and Beyond.... 107 Vincent P. Crawford, New Directions for Modelling Strategic Behavior: Game-Theoretic Models of Communication, Coordination, and Cooperation in Economic Relationships.... 131 Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine, Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games.... 151 Articles Dave Donaldson and Adam Storeygard, The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics... 171 Robert M. Townsend, Village and Larger Economies: The Theory and Measurement of the Townsend Thai Project... 199 Amanda Bayer and Cecilia Elena Rouse, Diversity in the Economics Profession: A New Attack on an Old Problem.... 221 Features Timothy Taylor, Recommendations for Further Reading.... 243

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The American Economic Association Correspondence relating to advertising, business matters, permission to quote, or change of address should be sent to the AEA business office: aeainfo@vanderbilt.edu. Street address: American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. For membership, subscriptions, or complimentary JEP for your e-reader, go to the AEA website: http://www.aeaweb.org. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00, depending on income; for an additional fee, you can receive this journal, or any of the Association s journals, in print. Change of address notice must be received at least six weeks prior to the publication month. Copyright 2016 by the American Eco nomic Association. Permission to make dig ital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation, including the name of the author. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than AEA must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. The author has the right to republish, post on servers, redistribute to lists, and use any component of this work in other works. For others to do so requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Per missions may be requested from the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203; e- mail: aeainfo@vanderbilt.edu. The following Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation is provided in accordance with the requirements, as contained in 39 U.S.C. 3658. Journal of is owned, managed, and published by the American Economic Association, a nonprofit educational organization, located at 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, Davidson County, TN 37203-2425. The Editor is Professor Enrico Moretti, the Managing Editor is Timothy Taylor, Journal of, 2403 Sidney Street, Suite 260, Pittsburgh, PA 15203. The tax status of the American Economic Association has not changed during the preceding twelve months. During the preceding twelve months the average number of copies printed for each issue was 6,635; the average total paid distribution, 5,537; the average total free or nominal rate include on PS form 3541, zero; the average total free or nominal rate distribution, 215; total distribution, 5,752; the average number of copies not distributed, 883. Corresponding figures for May 2016, the issue published nearest to filing date: total number of copies printed, 6,398; total paid circulation, 5,310; the average total free or nominal rate include on PS form 3541, zero; the average total free or nominal rate distribution, 214; total distribution, 5,524; the average number of copies not distributed, 874. During the preceding twelve months the average number of paid electronic copies each issue was 952; the total average paid print and electronic copies, 6,489; the total print distribution and electronic copies, 6,704. Corresponding figures for May 2016, the issue published nearest to filing date: number of paid electronic copies, 954; the total paid print and electronic copies, 6,264; the total print distribution and electronic copies, 6,478. Certified by Regina Montgomery, Administrative Director. Founded in 1885 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Elected Officers and Members President ROBERT J. SHILLER, Yale University President-elect ALVIN E. ROTH, Stanford University Vice Presidents DARON ACEMOGLU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MARIANNE BERTRAND, University of Chicago Members DORA L. COSTA, University of California at Los Angeles GUIDO W. IMBENS, Stanford University DAVID H. AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RACHEL E. KRANTON, Duke University JOHN Y. CAMPBELL, Harvard University HILARY HOYNES, University of California at Berkeley Ex Officio Members RICHARD H. THALER, University of Chicago WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Yale University Appointed Members Editor, The American Economic Review PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG, Yale University Editor, Economic Literature STEVEN N. DURLAUF, University of Wisconsin Editor, ENRICO MORETTI, University of California at Berkeley Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics ESTHER DUFLO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy MATTHEW D. 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Fall 2016, Volume 30, Number 4 Symposia Immigration and Labor Markets Giovanni Peri, Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets Christian Dustmann, Uta Schönberg, and Jan Stuhler, The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results? Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh, Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, Çağlar Özden, and Christopher Parsons, Global Talent Flows What is Happening in Game Theory? Larry Samuelson, Game Theory in Economics and Beyond Vincent P. Crawford, New Directions for Modelling Strategic Behavior: Game-Theoretic Models of Communication, Coordination, and Cooperation in Economic Relationships Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine, Whither Game Theory? Towards a Theory of Learning in Games Articles Dave Donaldson and Adam Storeygard, The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics Robert M. Townsend, Village and Larger Economies: The Theory and Measurement of the Townsend Thai Project Amanda Bayer and Cecilia Elena Rouse, Diversity in the Economics Profession: A New Attack on an Old Problem Recommendations for Further Reading