Running Head: THREAT OF TERRORISM 1 Threat of Terrorism from the Russian Nuclear Stockpile Thomas N. Davidson September 23, 2010
THREAT OF TERRORISM 2 Threat of Terrorism from the Russian Nuclear Stockpile The total collapse of the former Soviet Union began in 1985 and ended in 1991 when Boris Yelstin seized power after a failed coup. Since the beginning of the war in Croatia and the defeat of the coup in Moscow in August 1991, there have been several of the former Republics wanting recognition as independent states (Rich, 2004). Some states refused to consider themselves as part of the new Russian Federation. Because of political uncertainty, ethnic division, and a poor economy, concerns that portions of the former Soviet Union s nuclear arsenal might be sold to the highest bidder by rouge states (Ricks, 1998). It is estimated that in 1998 there were 22,000 nuclear warheads stockpiled somewhere in the Russia federation (Ricks, 1998). During the Cold War, the Soviet stockpile was sheltered from terrorists by a totalitarian regime with tightly sealed borders. Today, Russia has crowds of outsiders, and its borders are as permeable as that of the United States. The Russian army on which the out of date nuclear security system relies is poorly paid, and Al Qaeda and its Chechen collaborators have made documented attempts to get Russian nuclear materials (Gottfried & Simmons, 2003). In 1991, expecting that the fall of the Soviet Union would create new nuclear hazard, the United States and Russia launched the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program under the guidance of Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and then Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia. Since then, this program has installed security upgrades on about 40 percent
THREAT OF TERRORISM 3 of the Russian weapons, but less than half of these upgrades meet current U.S. standards. The Russian stockpile is huge and difficult to secure and protect. Less than 100 pounds of highly enriched uranium is needed to make a rudimentary nuclear bomb (Gottfried & Simmons, 2003). According to a Washington Post report, claims by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov that inadequately secured nuclear stockpiles in Russia are only a "myth" is far from the truth. There has been ten years of improvements in Russia, but the effort remains incomplete and the menace to nuclear facilities is high. In 2003, the chief of Russia's nuclear agency testified that nuclear security was substantially under-funded (Gottfried & Simmons, 2003). Russian spokespersons have confirmed that there were at least two cases in 2001 of suspects carrying out reconnaissance at Russian nuclear warhead storage sites. In addition, the terrorists who seized hundreds of hostages at a Moscow theater in 2002 reportedly considered seizing the Kurchatov Institute, a site with enough highly enriched uranium for many nuclear weapons. In 2003, testimony in a Russian criminal case exposed that a Russian businessman had been offering $750,000 for weapons grade plutonium to sale to an overseas client. It has also been widely reported that Al Qaeda has been actively seeking nuclear material for a bomb and has strong connections to Chechen terrorist groups (Gottfried & Simmons, 2003). What can be done to reduce the threat? On a global level there are five campaigns that have been identified by Indiana s Senator
THREAT OF TERRORISM 4 Lugar. First, strengthen U.S. diplomacy. The United States needs to commit to successful foreign policy communications strategies and tools. Second, expand and globalize the before mentioned Nunn-Lugar program. Third, promote trade. Free trade is indispensable to strengthening our economy, building coalitions and spreading the benefits of market economics. Fourth, strengthen and build alliances. The stronger our coalitions, the more likely we are to have associates who will share financial burdens and support our efforts against terrorism. Finally, revive our commitment to democracy, the environment, energy, and growth. This must include reducing our dependence on Persian Gulf oil (Lugar, 2003). On the national and local level, as has been stated in previous papers discussing the war on drugs, crime, and terrorism, the need for resource and information sharing between and among federal, state, and local agencies cannot be overstated. Proper training in the interdiction and decoding of messages and information is also very important. The margin of error in nuclear terror interdiction does not exist. One nuclear bomb smuggled into an American city and exploded will kill hundreds of thousands of people. With America s porous borders, excellent transportation system, and culture of individual freedom, is nuclear terrorism preventable? It is common knowledge that illegal drugs and aliens are smuggled into the United States daily. How easy would it be to smuggle a nuclear bomb deep into the heart of the United States in a truck smelling heavily of shrimp coming up from the Gulf coast?
THREAT OF TERRORISM 5 No doubt nuclear and radiation detection devices exist and are deployed in high risk areas. Reports of Nuclear Emergency Search Teams (NEST) exist and were even deployed after September 11, 2001. The mission of these teams of physicists, engineers, and explosive experts are to search out and dismantle weapons of mass destruction (Allison, 2004). While America s best hopes for avoiding nuclear terrorism lies on the international front, state and local authorities cannot simply rely that international interdiction efforts will succeed. The monitoring of sensitive radiation detection devices located in strategic areas of the country as well as tighter border security are two areas that state and local authorities can assist the federal government in lessoning the risk of nuclear terrorism. As before stated, the effective sharing of intelligence information and the training on how to interpret such information among federal, state, and local agencies is also imperative for the successful prevention and interdiction of nuclear terror in the United States.
THREAT OF TERRORISM 6 References Allison, G. (2004, September 19). Preventable nightmare; Al Qaeda wants to nuke a U.S. City. There are simple ways to stop it. Los Angeles Times, p. M1. Gottfried, K., & Simmons, A. (2003, April 4). Calming Russia's nuclear insecurity. Chicago Tribune, p. 1. Lugar, R. (2003, June 30). Five campaigns that are critical to our war on terrorism. Chicago Tribune, p. B11. Rich, R. (2004). Recognition of states; Collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. European Journal of International Law, 14(1), Retrieved September 25, 2007 from Oxford University Press website: http://www.ejil.org/journal/vol4/no1/art4.html Ricks, T. (1998). Russian nuclear stockpile a worry. In Terrorism today; the past, the players, the future (p. 122). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.