PENNSYLVANIA: UNCERTAIN DEM EDGE IN CD07

Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, September 13, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick PENNSYLVANIA: UNCERTAIN DEM EDGE IN CD07 Neither major party candidate is well-known West Long Branch, NJ There is a mixed outlook in the race for the newly drawn Pennsylvania 7 th Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. ocrat Susan Wild has a small 6 point edge over ublican Marty Nothstein among all potential voters in this open seat contest, but that lead shrinks among likely voters. Neither candidate is particularly well-known, especially in parts of the district that are new to the constituency after court ordered redistricting this year. PA-07 also stands out because ocrats do not enjoy the voter enthusiasm advantage that Monmouth has found in other competitive races it has polled for the cycle. Attorney Wild is supported by 4 and former Olympic cyclist Nothstein is supported by of all potential voters that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 8 of all registered voters in the district). Another support Libertarian candidate Tim Silfies and are undecided. The ocratic lead narrows when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Wild a slight 4 to 4 edge over Nothstein, while a model that includes a turnout surge in ocratic precincts shows the race at 4 for Wild and 4 for Nothstein. These margins, however, are not statistically significant for any of these scenarios. Monmouth has polled ten competitive House races so far this cycle. This is the first one where the ublican candidate s prospects improved by more than a point when we applied our standard likely voter model, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. In the court-ordered map for the midterm election, 7 of PA-07 s electorate was drawn from the old 15 th district formerly represented by ublican Charlie Dent. The remainder of the current district was carved out primarily from district 17 (represented by ocrat Matthew Cartwright) as well as a small segment of district 10 (represented by ublican Tom Marino). Among potential voters, Wild 1

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 leads Nothstein by 8 points (4 to 3) in the old PA-15 part of the district where both candidates live, but only by 3 points (4 to 4) in the newer parts of the district. [Note: Nothstein and Wild are simultaneously running in a special election to fill the seat Dent left vacant when he resigned in May. The old PA-15 results in this poll only represent part of that special election constituency.] Currently, 5 of PA-07 voters express a lot of interest in the November election for Congress. This includes 6 of self-identified ocrats and 6 of ublicans, but a smaller number of independents (3). Nothstein voters (6) are slightly more likely than Wild voters (6) to express a lot of interest in the race. This is the only race we ve polled this year where the enthusiasm gap does not favor the ocrats. Part of this may be due to the fact that neither candidate is particularly well-known, especially in the part of the district that is currently represented by a ocratic incumbent, said Murray. Wild receives a 3 favorable and 1 unfavorable rating from PA-07 voters, with 5 having no opinion of her. Nothstein receives a 2 favorable and 1 unfavorable rating, with 5 having no opinion of him. The percent of voters in the old PA-15 constituency who have no opinion of either candidate is 5 for Wild and 5 for Nothstein. The percent who have no opinion in the remaining part of the district is 6 for Wild and 6 for Nothstein. Wild does slightly better than Nothstein when voters are asked whether the candidates understand the day to day concerns of people like them. Nearly 4- in-10 (3) say the ocrat does understand and says she does not. Opinion is divided on Nothstein, with 3 saying he does understand their day to day concerns and 3 saying he does not. Overall, 4 of PA-07 voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 4 disapprove. However, more voters strongly disapprove (4) than strongly approve (2). The poll finds that 6 of potential voters say it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that shows how they feel about the president including 7 of Trump opponents and 6 of Trump supporters. PA-07 voters are divided on whether they would rather see ocrats (4) or ublicans () in control of Congress. Another 2 say that party control does not matter to them. When asked to choose the top issue in their vote for Congress from a list of six policy areas, 3 pick health care, which is followed by immigration (2), job creation (1), gun control (1), tax policy (), and abortion (). Health care is the most important issue for Wild voters (4), while immigration is the top pick for Nothstein voters (3). Among voters who are undecided or only leaning toward a candidate right now, health care (2) and immigration (2) are the most pressing concerns. The poll also finds that PA-07 voters are evenly split on the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December approve and 4 disapprove. Less than half (4) of PA-07 voters have seen or heard news that broke last month about Marty Nothstein being investigated for a possible incident of sexual misconduct with another cyclist some years 2

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 ago. Published reports say that the investigation by the U.S. Center for SafeSport was closed, but the poll finds that a small number of voters believe he did engage in misconduct () or say it is likely he might have done something inappropriate (1). Another 1-in-5 say Nothstein did not engage in sexual misconduct (1) or is not likely to have done something inappropriate (), while are not sure and 5 have not heard anything about the incident. It does not appear to be impacting the overall campaign, as most of those voters who believe Nothstein did something inappropriate are ocrats who are likely to be supporting Wild regardless. The newly drawn Pennsylvania 7 th tends to lean ocratic in presidential elections and ublican in House contests. Voters in what is now PA-07 supported Barack Obama for president in 2012 by 7 points and Hillary Clinton in 2016 by just over one point. However, their House vote went to ublican candidates in both 2016 (by 9 points) and 2012 (by nearly 3 points). [The old PA-15 did not have a ocratic candidate in 2014, so no comparison can be made for that midterm.] The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 5 to 9, with 401 voters in Pennsylvania s 7 th Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 5.7 percentage points for the likely voter models. The error of the gap between the two candidates vote share (i.e. the margin of the lead ) is +/- 6.8 percentage points for the full sample and +/- 8.0 percentage points for the likely voter models. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. QUESTIONS AND RESULTS (* Some columns may not add to 10 due to rounding.) 1/2. If the election for U.S. House of resentatives in your district was today, would you vote for Marty Nothstein the ublican, Susan Wild the ocrat, or Tim Silfies the Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following at this moment, do you lean more toward Marty Nothstein or more toward Susan Wild] [NAMES WERE ROTATED] With leaners Full voter sample September Likely Voter Models Standard ocratic Midterm Surge Marty Nothstein 4 4 Susan Wild 4 4 4 Tim Silfies (VOL) Undecided (299) (299) 3

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 [QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED] 3. Is your general impression of Marty Nothstein favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? Favorable 2 Unfavorable 1 No opinion 5 4. Is your general impression of Susan Wild favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her? Favorable 3 Unfavorable 1 No opinion 5 5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot 5 A little 2 Not much at all 1 (VOL) Don't Know 6. Have you been following the campaign in your congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely 1 Somewhat closely Not too closely 4 (VOL) Don t know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve 2 Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4 (VOL) Don t know 4

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support 4 Oppose 4 (VOL) Depends/both (VOL) Don t know 9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your [support of/opposition to] President Trump very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important 6 Somewhat important 1 Not too important Not at all important (VOL) Don t know 1 10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesn t this matter to you? ublicans ocrats 4 Does not matter 2 (VOL) Don t know 11. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress. [ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Immigration policy 2 Health care policy 3 Gun control policy 1 Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy 1 (VOL) Other (VOL) Don t know 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove 1 Strongly disapprove 2 (VOL) Don t know 5

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 [QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED] 13. Do you think Marty Nothstein does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you? Does 3 Does not 3 (VOL) Don t know 3 14. Do you think Susan Wild does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like you? Does 3 Does not (VOL) Don t know 3 15. Have you seen or heard recent news about Marty Nothstein being investigated for a possible incident of sexual misconduct from some years ago, or are you not aware of this? Have seen or heard 4 Not aware 5 16/16A. Do you think Marty Nothstein did or did not engage in sexual misconduct, or are you not sure? [IF NOT SURE: Do you think it s more likely or less likely that Nothstein might have done something inappropriate?] Did engage Not sure, but more likely 1 Not sure Not sure, but think less likely Did not 1 Not aware (from Q15) 5 METHODOLOGY The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 5 to September 9, with a random sample of 401 potential voters in Pennsylvania s 7 th Congressional District, drawn from a list of registered voters who voted in at least one of the last four general or primary elections or have registered to vote since January 2016. This includes 220 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 181 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, party registration, age, gender, education and race based on state voter registration list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and L2 (voter sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 9 confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. 6

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/13/18 DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Party Registration ublican 4 ocrat 1 Neither Self-orted Party ID 3 ublican 2 ependent 3 ocrat 4 Male 5 Female 18-34 2 35-49 3 50-64 2 65+ 8 White, non-hispanic Other 6 No college degree 3 4-year college degree 4 County County 4 Northampton County Current House district PA 10 7 PA 15 2 PA 17 MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe (+/-) ALL VOTERS 401 4. SELF-REPORTED ublican 131 8. ependent 110 9. ocrat 157 7. IDEOLOGY Conservative 128 8. Moderate 153 7. Liberal 102 9. Male 189 7. Female 212 6. AGE 18-49 159 7. 50-64 120 9. 65+ 115 9. COLLEGE by RACE White, No degree 166 7. White, 4 year degree 156 7. Other race, Latino 58 12. 183 7. Northampton/ 218 6. 15 280 5. 17 & 10 121 8. VOTE CHOICE Nothstein 133 8. Wild 184 7. Other 84 10. ### 7

Q1-2. PA07 VOTE WITH LEANERS Marty Nothstein Susan Wild Tim Silfies Undecided 4 9 2 9 7 3 1 5 8 4 4 3 4 1 Q1-2. PA07 VOTE WITH LEANERS Marty Nothstein Susan Wild Tim Silfies Undecided 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 5 6 3 5 1 4 Q1-2. PA07 VOTE WITH LEANERS Marty Nothstein Susan Wild Tim Silfies Undecided 3 4 17 or 10 4 4 Con Mod Lib Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 2 5 4 2 3 2 Marty Nothstein favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 2 1 3 1 1 opinion of him? No opinion 5 4 7 6 4 6 6 5 6 6 Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 3 3 2 2 2 Marty Nothstein favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 2 1 opinion of him? No opinion 5 5 5 4 8 5 6 5 PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS Q3. Is your general impression of Favorable 2 5 1 Marty Nothstein favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 3 opinion of him? No opinion 6 6 8 Page 1

Con Mod Lib Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 5 3 6 3 2 Susan Wild favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 2 2 opinion of her? No opinion 5 7 6 3 6 5 3 5 6 5 Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 Susan Wild favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 1 1 1 1 opinion of her? No opinion 5 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS Q4. Is your general impression of Favorable 2 6 Susan Wild favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no Unfavorable 1 opinion of her? No opinion 6 7 3 8 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all 5 2 1 6 2 3 2 6 5 5 6 2 3 2 1 5 5 3 3 2 Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all 7 6 5 6 3 2 1 2 2 4 1 2 6 2 5 3 1 5 1 Page 2

Q5. How much interest do you have in the upcoming election for House of resentatives - a lot of interest, a little interest, or not much interest at all? A lot A little Not much at all PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 4 3 6 2 6 1 2 5 Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely 1 4 4 3 5 1 4 3 1 2 4 4 4 3 1 4 4 1 4 3 6 Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely 2 1 1 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 1 4 4 1 3 4 1 4 4 Q6. Have you been following the campaign in your Congressional district very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely? Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 3 4 4 3 6 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 2 4 6 2 1 4 7 5 2 2 2 1 1 8 3 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 1 4 Page 3

Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 3 3 1 2 2 1 4 3 5 4 2 1 5 3 3 2 4 Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?] Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 3 3 6 7 3 2 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both 4 4 8 3 5 1 8 7 3 1 5 8 5 4 5 5 Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both 4 4 5 3 4 4 3 5 6 1 3 5 5 4 5 Page 4

Q8. On most issues would you say you support or oppose what President Trump is doing? Support Oppose [VOL] Both PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 4 3 8 8 4 2 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 6 1 1 6 1 3 2 1 7 6 5 7 1 2 1 6 1 6 4 2 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 7 7 6 5 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 6 6 1 1 6 1 Q9. How important is it for you to cast a vote for Congress that shows your President Trump - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 6 1 7 1 7 1 2 2 1 2 Page 5

Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter 4 2 8 1 2 3 4 8 7 1 4 8 2 4 3 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter 4 4 3 1 3 4 3 5 4 1 1 2 1 3 3 4 1 4 3 2 3 2 Q10. Would you rather see the ublicans or the ocrats in control of Congress, or doesnt this matter to you? ublicans ocrats Does not matter PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 3 2 8 1 8 3 1 4 Q11. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]. Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 Page 6

Q11. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]. Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 Q11. Please tell me which one of the following policy issues is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress - [READ LIST]. Immigration policy Health care policy Gun control policy Abortion policy Tax policy Job creation policy [VOL] Other PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 2 2 1 3 1 2 4 2 2 1 1 Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?) Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 3 1 3 2 1 2 2 5 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 Page 7

Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?) Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [PROBE: Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or somewhat?) Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 2 1 2 4 3 1 2 5 1 3 1 3 Con Mod Lib Q13. Do you think Marty Does 3 5 2 1 5 3 2 Nothstein does or does not understand the day to day Does not 3 4 4 1 3 5 3 3 concerns of people like you? 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Q13. Do you think Marty Does 3 3 3 3 3 3 Nothstein does or does not understand the day to day Does not 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 concerns of people like you? 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS Q13. Do you think Marty Does 3 6 1 1 Nothstein does or does not understand the day to day Does not 3 4 2 concerns of people like you? 2 3 5 Page 8

Con Mod Lib Q14. Do you think Susan Wild Does 3 1 3 6 1 4 6 3 4 does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not 4 2 1 4 3 2 you? 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 Q14. Do you think Susan Wild Does 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 you? 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS Q14. Do you think Susan Wild Does 3 2 6 does or does not understand the day to day concerns of people like Does not 4 2 you? 3 6 Q15. Have you seen or heard recent news about Marty Nothstein being investigated for a possible incident of sexual misconduct from some years ago, or are you not aware of this? Have seen or heard Not aware 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 6 Q15. Have you seen or heard recent news about Marty Nothstein being investigated for a possible incident of sexual misconduct from some years ago, or are you not aware of this? Have seen or heard Not aware 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 Page 9

Q15. Have you seen or heard recent news about Marty Nothstein being investigated for a possible incident of sexual misconduct from some years ago, or are you not aware of this? Have seen or heard Not aware PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 4 5 4 5 4 5 3 6 Q16\16A. Do you think Marty Nothstein did or did not engage in sexual misconduct, or are you not sure? [IF NOT SURE: Do you think its more likely or less likely that Nothstein might have done something inappropriate?] Did engage Not sure, but more likely Not sure Not sure, but think less likely Did not Not aware of [Q15]. 1 1 5 1 2 5 1 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 Male Female 1 1 1 1 5 5 Q16\16A. Do you think Marty Nothstein did or did not engage in sexual misconduct, or are you not sure? [IF NOT SURE: Do you think its more likely or less likely that Nothstein might have done something inappropriate?] Did engage Not sure, but more likely Not sure Not sure, but think less likely Did not Not aware of [Q15]. 18-49 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 4 5 5 4 6 1 5 1 1 5 Q16\16A. Do you think Marty Nothstein did or did not engage in sexual misconduct, or are you not sure? [IF NOT SURE: Do you think its more likely or less likely that Nothstein might have done something inappropriate?] Did engage Not sure, but more likely Not sure Not sure, but think less likely Did not Not aware of [Q15]. 17 or 10 1 1 1 5 5 PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS Nothstein Wild Other- Undec 1 1 1 2 5 5 6 Page 10

Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 3 3 1 3 4 1 1 1 4 3 3 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 3 4 1 2 4 2 1 Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important 4 4 3 2 4 2 2 5 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 Q17. How important is it for you personally to get involved in politics - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important PA07 VOTE w/o LEANERS 1 3 1 4 3 1 4 1 Page 11