Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences Demography Special Lecture I, II 19 th July 2018 14:50-16:20 Demography in practice World population and SDGs Reiko Hayashi National Institute of Population and Social Security Research hayashi-reiko@ipss.go.jp
World population by region 12 10 population in billion 8 6 4 2 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Middle East Europe Latin America +C. Northern America Oceania Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 2
World population by broad age group 12 2.5 10 65 years and over 2.0 Population in billion 8 6 4 15-64 1.5 1.0 Annual change (%) 2 0.5 0-14 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 0.0 3
World population pyramid World 1950 World 2015 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Male 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Male 200000 100000 0 100000 200000 Population in 1,000 400000 200000 0 200000 400000 Population in 1,000 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 4
Global turning point in 2010 dependency rate at the bottom 90 Dependency rate (%) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 2010 Definition of elderly DR60+ DR65+ 50 45 World Dependency rate(%) = (Pop 0-14) + (Pop 60+ / 65+) Pop 15-59(64) 40 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition.
Population = Birth Death ±Migration 6
750 Different indicators : birth World, both sex 6 Number of births in million in 5 years 700 650 600 550 500 450 5 4 3 2 1 Crude birth rate, Total fertility rate 400 0 Number of births in 5 years Total fertility (live births per woman) Crude birth rate (births per 100 population) Note : Crude birth rate is normally expressed as births per 1000 population but it is changed here to per 100 population so that three indicators fit in one graph. Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 7
Total fertility rate Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 46.49 145.87 143.75 96.73 49.87 World 2010-2015 16.58 4.00 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age of mother Age of mother Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women) 15-19 46.49 20-24 145.87 25-29 143.75 30-34 96.73 35-39 49.87 40-44 16.58 45-49 4.00 Total x 5 / 1000 2.52 8
Trend of total fertility rate 7 6 Total fertility rate 5 4 3 2 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year AFRICA Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia EUROPE LATIN AMERICA &C NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA WORLD 9 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition.
Total Fertility Rate(2010-2015) Many countries are below replacement level Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 10
Different indicators : Death World, both sex Number of deaths in million 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Crude death rate, Life expectancy at birth Number of deaths in 5 years Crude death rate per 10,000 Life expectancy at birth Note : Crude death rate is normally expressed as deaths per 1,000 population but it is changed here to per 10,000 population so that three indicators fit in one graph. Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 11
Schema of life expectancy calculation using life table Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 479,815 474,310 471,898 469,544 World, both sex 2010-2015 466,336 462,435 457,884 452,510 446,169 0-5- 10-15- 20-25- 30-35- 40-45- 50-55- 60-65- 70-75- 80-85- Age Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 438,155 426,992 410,879 387,501 353,468 305,591 243,227 170,809 161,847 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 Central death rate m(x,n) Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. Central death rate m(x,n) Age Number of person-years lived L(x,n) 0-97,021 1-382,795 5-474,310 10-471,898 15-469,544 20-466,336 25-462,435 30-457,884 35-452,510 40-446,169 45-438,155 50-426,992 55-410,879 60-387,501 65-353,468 70-305,591 75-243,227 80-170,809 85-161,847 Total 7,079,370 e0 70.79 12
Trend of life expectancy 80 70 Life expectancy in years 60 50 40 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 WORLD Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-Central Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia EUROPE LATIN AMERICA &C NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. 13
United Nations Population Division World Population Prospect https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ 14
Steady increase of international migration 300 Migrant in million 250 200 150 100 50 6 5 5 45 5 40 28 33 7 7 7 7 49 53 56 63 48 46 49 53 7 51 8 71 66 8 8 58 56 10 9 75 78 77 80 Region of destination OCEANIA N.AMERICA LAC EUROPE ASIA AFRICA 0 16 16 15 15 17 23 25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Year Note : LAC stands for LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (2017). Trends in International Migrant Stock: 15 The 2017 revision (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2017).
Proportion of international migrant(2015) Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015). 16
International Migrant Stock http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/ 17 migration/data/estimates2/estimates17.shtml
Practice 1 Find the population indicators of the country of your choice in World Population Prospect 2017 and fill in the form; https://goo.gl/forms/auuhqeqmfpdy81bf1 18
Practice 2 Make the population pyramid of the country of your choice. Download the format from; www.linz.jp/populationpyramid.xlsx 19
Practice 3 Using data on international migration stock 2017 https://goo.gl/forms/is25z2odlhoghsod3 20
Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/summit 21
Monitoring system before and after MDGs, then SDGs Before MDGs (~2000) Human Development Indicators (1990~) Rio (1992), ICPD (1994), Beijing (1995) : more on texts, less numerical indicators MDGs (2000-2015) 8 goals, 18 targets, 48 indicators Inter-Agency and Expert Group and UNDP in charge of monitoring Report on statistics Criticism on the decision of indicators (lack of transparency and frequent modifications) SDGs (2015-2030) 17 goals, 169 targets, 235 indicators IAEG-SDGs and UNSD Too many indicators? Increasing interest on numerical target and evaluation framework is more explicit in recent time Better than national political framework Improved national statistics system Expansion of internet and data dissemination 22
The key UN documents on SDGs A/RES/70/1 Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/summit E/CN.3/2017/2 Annex III Revised list of global Sustainable Development Goal indicators https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database/ https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/iaeg-sdgs/tier-classification/ https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/indicators-list/ 23
Disaggregation By 2020, enhance capacity-building support to developing countries, including for least developed countries and small island developing States, to increase significantly the availability of high-quality, timely and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics relevant in national contexts (A/70/L.1, 17.18 ) 24
Online resources for SDGs indicators UN Statistics Division https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/ UN Population Division https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ World Bank https://data.worldbank.org/ Japanese governmental statistics https://www.e-stat.go.jp/ Japanese translation of SDGs http://www.soumu.go.jp/toukei_toukatsu/index/kokusai/02to ukatsu01_04000212.html Data on Japanese population www.ipss.go.jp 25
Practice 4 on SDGs https://goo.gl/forms/wlcfrc54q4nbjrlp2 26