EKOS 25 th Anniversary Poll November 12, 5 www.ekos.com
Methodology Telephone survey of the general public - 1275 interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and older Interview period: November 7 to November 9, 5 National results valid within 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of - The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided - It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
General outlook
Direction of Government/country Q: All things considered, would you say that the is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?* Government of Canada country 41 54 49 38 1 8 Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Direction of Government/country by region Q: All things considered, would you say that the is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?* % right direction Government of Canada country 41 54 58 45 44 68 32 45 41 52 5 34 57 Overall B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Tracking direction of Government Q: All things considered, would you say that the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?* 9 7 5 48 51 51 49 3 44 37 41 3 1 J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- J- M- M- J- S- N- 99 99 99 99 99 99 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 Right direction Wrong direction Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Tracking direction of country Q: All things considered, would you say that the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?* 9 7 5 54 52 45 54 3 38 42 38 27 1 F-4 M-4 A-4 M-4 J-4 J-4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 J-5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 J-5 J-5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 Right direction Wrong direction Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
The election landscape
Most important issue Q: Which of the following do you think should be the most important issue for the next federal election? 5 17 12 Social issues (health & education) The economy (jobs &growth) Ethics & accoubtabilty Fiscal issues (taxes & debt) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking most important issue Q: Which of the following do you think should be the most important issue for the next federal election? 5 3 1 F-4 M-4 A-4 M-4 J-4 J-4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 J-5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 J-5 J-5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 Fiscal issues Ethics & accountability Economy Social issues Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Liberals have slight lead on overall issue advantage Q: Thinking about which federal party do you feel offers the best solutions to address it?* LPC CPC NDP BQ Green None DK/NR social issues (health, education) 23 1 27 11 3 3 23 the economy (jobs & growth) 41 17 8 8 1 3 23 fiscal issues (taxes) 23 44 7 5 1 6 15 ethics and accountability 8 48 19 6 2 4 14 all issues** 24 22 19 9 2 4 *each respondent was asked to name the party they felt was best able to address the issue they considered the top priority for the next election **represents collapse of responses for each of the issues Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5, overall n=1275
Ethics and accountability problems plague Liberals Q: I'm so disturbed by problems with ethics and accountability that I simply won't vote for the Liberals in the next election.* Feb. 4 Apr. 4 Nov. 5 37 28 3 21 17 38 45 49 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Trust in Stephen Harper and the conservatives divided Q: Even with the ethical problems uncovered in the Gomery Inquiry I don't think Stephen Harper and the Conservatives can be trusted to govern.* Q: Even if I don't believe in Stephen Harper's politics, I think its time to give him a chance to prove whether he can do a better job than the Liberals.* Can't be trusted Give him a chance 33 37 41 41 23 19 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Attitudes towards coalition between the CPC and the Bloc Q: I think that the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservative Party cooperating to cause an immediate election is a very bad thing.* 33 44 21 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Should the NDP prop up the Liberals? Q: As you may be aware, the NDP has said they can no longer support the Liberals in Parliament. Which of the following comes closest to your own point of view? 55 38 7 The NDP deserves credit for working with the Liberal government to get things done. The NDP should join with the other opposition parties and make way for an early election. DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Timing of an election: wait for Gomery s final report Q: As you may be aware Prime Minister Paul Martin has promised to call a federal election within 3 days of Justice Gomery's final report on the sponsorship scandal, which is expected in February. Some of the opposition parties, on the other hand, say there should be an election as soon as possible. Which of the following comes closest to your own point of view? We should wait for Justice Gomery's final report in February and then have an election in the spring. 62 We should have an election as soon as possible this winter. 24 We don't need to have an election any time soon. 13 DK/NR 1 1 3 5 7 Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Current vote intention
Federal voting intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Election 4 33.% 27.9%.9% 13.1% 4.9% 36.7% 29.6% 15.7% 12.4% 4.3% Other.2% 1.4% Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Nov. 5 n=115 % 25% 5% 75% % Undecided/declined: 8.3% Will not vote 3.7%
Federal vote intentions: long-term trend Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 5 Election 97 Election Election 4 3 1 D-96 M-97 O-97 M-98 A-98 J-99 J-99 N-99 A- S- F-1 J-1 D-1 M-2 O-2 M-3 A-3 J-4 J-4 N-4 A-5 S-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Green Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Nov. 5 n=115
Federal vote intentions: trend since Martin became PM Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 5 Election 4 3 1 D- 3 J- 4 F- 4 M- 4 A- 4 M- 4 J- 4 J- 4 A- 4 S- 4 O- 4 N- 4 D- 4 J- 5 F- 5 M- 5 A- 5 M- 5 J- 5 J- 5 A- 5 S- 5 O- 5 N- 5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Green Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Nov. 5 n=115
Quebec federal vote intentions: long-term trend Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 7 Election 4 5 Election 3 1 O- J-1 A-1 J-1 O-1 J-2 A-2 J-2 O-2 J-3 A-3 J-3 O-3 J-4 A-4 J-4 O-4 J-5 A-5 J-5 O-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Base: Quebec decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Nov. 5 n=322
Federal voting intentions: regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Overall BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 33 33 23 16 42 25 46 CPC 28 24 59 47 3 1 3 NDP 21 33 16 27 23 11 23 BQ 13 53 Green Party 5 1 2 1 5 3 1 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Nov. 5 n=115
Federal voting intentions: gender and age Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Overall Men Women <25 yrs 25-44 45-64 65+ Liberal 33 34 32 29 31 34 41 CPC 28 3 26 24 25 3 35 NDP 21 17 26 25 23 19 15 BQ 13 14 12 15 16 12 7 Green Party 5 5 5 7 5 5 2 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Nov. 5 n=115
Federal voting intentions: education and income Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Overall Hschool Coll Univ <$K -39K -59K -79K -99K K+ Liberal 33 36 26 34 29 33 3 34 3 37 CPC 28 28 35 24 23 21 29 21 32 33 NDP 21 17 18 25 24 24 21 27 25 14 BQ 13 15 16 1 19 19 12 15 1 1 Green Party 5 3 5 6 5 3 8 3 4 6 Liberal CPC NDP BQ Green Party Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Nov. 5 n=115
Voter retention Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Current Federal Vote Intention LPC VOTE CAST IN 4 CPC NDP BQ GP Liberal Party of Canada 68 5 14 1 3 Conservative Party of Canada 14 87 9 3 6 NDP 13 7 75 6 6 Bloc Québécois 3 1 9 Green Party 2 1 2 1 85 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Nov. 5 n=115
NDP second choice Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice? 25 17 16 1 4 NDP Conservative Liberal Green BQ Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275 Undecided/declined: 15% Will not vote/change mind: 12%
Likely winner Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? 63 3 3 1 Liberal CPC BQ NDP DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking likely winner Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? 7 5 3 37 5 28 63 1 A-5 M-5 J-5 J-5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 Liberal CPC BQ NDP Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Outcome of the next election
Next government thought to be a minority Q: Do you think it will result in a minority or a majority government? 9 7 54 61 69 69 71 72 5 3 33 32 26 26 25 1 F-4 M-4 A-4 M-4 J-4 J-4 A-4 S-4 O-4 N-4 D-4 J-5 F-5 M-5 A-5 M-5 J-5 J-5 A-5 S-5 O-5 N-5 Minority Majority Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Preference for a majority or a minority? Q: Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Those who think it will be a MINORITY Those who think it will be a MAJORITY 46 56 28 18 25 25 Bad thing Neither Good thing Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5, n=949 for minority, n=2 for majority
Sponsorship and the Gomery report
Attention to the sponsorship scandal Q: As you may be aware, last week Mr. Justice John Gomery released the first part of his report on the federal sponsorship scandal. How closely would you say you have been following the issue of the sponsorship scandal? 3 29 41 Not closely Moderately closely Closely Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Opinion of the sponsorship scandal Q: Which of the following best characterizes your personal view of the sponsorship scandal? Would you say it is 47 27 18 4 not a particularly bad, but no worse worse than other the worst bad problem than other government government scandals government scandal I scandals can recall Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking opinion of the sponsorship scandal Q: Which of the following best characterizes your personal view of the sponsorship scandal? Would you say it is 52 5 47 47 37 3 21 19 24 22 34 22 27 18 1 6 5 4 4 F-4 M-4 A-4 N-4 F-5 M-5 A-5 N-5 not particularly bad bad, but no worse worse than others the worst Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Most likely impact of the Gomery inquiry Q: Which of the following do you think will be the most likely impact of the Gomery Inquiry? 24 9 6 Better, more ethical Worse gov't operations No real impact DK/NR government operations slowed down by too many rules (volunteered) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Assessment of Martin improves somewhat following exoneration Q: Which of the following two statements is closest to your own point of view? Apr. 5 Nov. 5 59 29 35 11 7 Paul Martin has been an essential part of the Liberal government since 1993 and now as Leader of the Liberal Party should be held accountable for the sponsorship mess Paul Martin had little or nothing to do with the sponsorship mess and deserves credit for calling the public inquiry DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Sponsorship blame rests on the Liberal party Q: Ultimately, who do you think is MOST to blame for the Sponsorship Scandal? Would you say the Liberal Party of Canada 49 improper oversight by public servants 23 dishonest Quebec advertising executives 17 None of the above (volunteered) 3 DK/NR 9 1 3 5 Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Chrétien most to blame in the Liberal party Q: And, who in the Liberal Party of Canada is most to blame?* Jean Chrétien Paul Martin 15 Both Chrétien and Martin 4 Alfonso Gagliano 1 Other 3 DK/NR 15 1 3 5 7 Base: Those who think the Liberal party is to blame; Nov. 5 n=61
Canada: Past, present, and future
Quality of life Q: Thinking about your overall quality of life, would you say that you are better off, worse off, or about the same as the previous generation was 25 years ago?* Q: Thinking about your overall quality of life do you think the next generation will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you are 25 years from now?* 25 years ago 25 years from now 51 44 27 26 3 18 Worse About the same Better Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Safety of world Q: Do you think the world is safer, more dangerous or about the same as it was 25 years ago?* Q: Do you think the world will be safer, more dangerous or about the same 25 years from now?* 25 years ago 25 years from now 69 61 22 27 7 1 More dangerous About the same Safer Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Corruption in politics Q: Do you think politics in Canada is more honest, more corrupt, or about the same as it was 25 years ago?* Q: Do you think politics in Canada will be more honest, more corrupt, or remain about the same 25 years from now?* 25 years ago 25 years from now 61 42 5 21 4 15 More corrupt About the same More honest Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Trust and ethics
Trust in government Q: How much trust do you have in the federal government compared to ten years ago? Apr. 96 Nov. 5 47 54 27 28 25 15 Less trust (1-3) Same (4) More trust (5-7) DK/NR 2 3 Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Government patronage believed widespread, but declining Q: What really bothers me is that our politicians seem to have taken care of themselves and their friends while average Canadians have suffered badly. Feb. 94 Apr. 96 Nov. 5 83 79 77 12 14 8 9 1 9 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Perceptions of politicians Q: I would be proud if my child grew up to be a politician. 52 5 43 44 46 43 42 45 3 33 33 25 31 3 31 34 1 F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M-A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- 94 94 94 94 95 95 95 95 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7)
Ethics of Canadians Q: Overall, how would you rate? the ethics of Canadians your own personal ethics 89 7 21 8 2 8 Unethical (1-3) Neither (4) Ethical (5-7) Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking the ethics of Canadians Q: Overall, how would you rate the ethics of Canadians? 9 7 68 63 7 5 3 1 A-99 A-99 D-99 A- A- D- A-1 A-1 D-1 A-2 A-2 D-2 A-3 A-3 D-3 A-4 A-4 D-4 A-5 A-5 Unethical (1-3) Neither (4) Ethical (5-7) Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Rating the ethical standards of different occupations Q: Overall, how would you rate the ethical standards of each of the following occupations in Canada?* Low (1-3) Moderate (4) High (5-7) 51 55 22 26 32 27 28 16 Public servants Heads of corporations Politicians Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 overall n=1275 *half sample
Tracking the ethical standards of politicians and public servants Q: Overall, how would you rate the ethical standards of each of the following occupations in Canada?* % high (5-7 on a 7-point scale) 55 5 45 48 45 51 35 3 25 15 1 18 19 16 5 M- A- N- F-1 M-1 A-1 N-1 F-2 M-2 A-2 N-2 F-3 M-3 A-3 N-3 F-4 M-4 A-4 N-4 F-5 M-5 A-5 N-5 Politicians Public servants Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 overall n=1275 * half sample
Governance in Canada
Government of Canada operations Q: Which of the following best describes the way the Government of Canada is currently operating? Currently operating Q: And which way would you prefer the government of Canada to operate? Preference 67 54 15 18 6 Following a careful, steady-asshe-goes approach Providing a bold new vision for the future of the country DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking current Government of Canada operations Q: Which of the following best describes the way the Government of Canada is currently operating? 9 7 7 76 69 67 67 5 3 1 21 17 22 19 15 O-98 M-99 A-99 J- J- N- A-1 S-1 F-2 J-2 D-2 M-3 O-3 M-4 A-4 J-5 J-5 N-5 Careful, steady-as-she-goes Bold new vision Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Tracking preferred Government of Canada operations Q: And which way would you prefer the government of Canada to operate? 9 7 5 53 58 59 54 3 43 39 37 33 1 O-98 M-99 A-99 J- J- N- A-1 S-1 F-2 J-2 D-2 M-3 O-3 M-4 A-4 J-5 J-5 N-5 Careful, steady-as-she-goes Bold new vision Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Government not regarded as a positive force Q: All in all, government is a positive force in my life. 52 5 38 43 3 31 29 25 1 A-96 S-96 F-97 J-97 D-97 M-98 O-98 M-99 A-99 J- J- N- A-1 S-1 F-2 J-2 D-2 M-3 O-3 M-4 A-4 J-5 J-5 N-5 Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Base: All Canadians; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=1275
Importance of the different levels of government Q: Thinking about the following levels of government in Canada, how would you rate the overall importance of each level to you? Not very important (1-3) Somewhat important (4) Important (5-7) 58 72 66 19 22 1 18 19 15 Federal Provincial Local Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Which level of government could we do without? Q: Now, thinking ahead 25 years, which of these three levels of government would be the easiest to live without? 31 25 32 13 Federal government Provincial government Local government DK/NR Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Removal of government level by region Q: Thinking about the different levels of government in Canada today, which level do you think we could most easily do without? Federal Provincial Local 31 25 32 27 36 45 19 26 27 26 32 35 33 48 26 22 15 17 46 Overall B.C. Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Base: All Canadians; Nov. 5 n=1275
Quebec s place in Canada
Quebec s political status in Canada Q: Ideally, which of the following four options would you prefer for Quebec? 31 24 23 15 5 Sovereignty- Decentralized Complete Status quo DK/NR association federalism independence Base: Residents of Quebec; Nov. 5 n=365
Tracking preference for Quebec s political status in Canada Q: Ideally, which of the following four options would you prefer for Quebec? 5 3 1 F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- F- M- A- N- 94 94 94 94 95 95 95 95 96 96 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 Complete indep. Sovereignty assoc. Decentralized federalism Status quo Base: Residents of Quebec; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=365
Independence vs. status quo for Quebec Q: If you were forced to choose between complete independence for Quebec from Canada or maintenance of the status quo, which would you choose? 49 46 6 The status quo Complete independence DK/NR Base: Residents of Quebec; Nov. 5 n=365
Quebeckers show slight preference for status quo Q: If you were forced to choose between complete independence for Quebec from Canada or maintenance of the status quo, which would you choose? 7 62 64 5 55 5 46 55 49 46 3 33 3 26 3 1 F- 94 J- 94 O- 94 F- 95 J- 95 O- 95 F- 96 J- 96 O- 96 F- 97 J- 97 O- 97 F- 98 J- 98 O- 98 F- 99 J- 99 O- 99 F- J- O- F- 1 J- 1 O- 1 F- 2 J- 2 O- 2 F- 3 J- 3 O- 3 F- 4 J- 4 O- 4 F- 5 J- 5 O- 5 Status quo Complete independence Base: Residents of Quebec; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=365
Support for sovereignty Q: If a referendum were held today on the same question as that asked in 1995, that is, sovereignty with an offer of partnership with the rest of Canada, would you vote yes or would you vote no? 9 7 5 62 49 56 3 38 43 38 1 M- 98 A- 98 N- 98 F- 99 M- 99 A- 99 N- 99 F- M- A- N- F- 1 M- 1 A- 1 N- 1 F- 2 M- 2 A- 2 N- 2 F- 3 M- 3 A- 3 N- 3 F- 4 M- 4 A- 4 N- 4 F- 5 M- 5 A- 5 N- 5 No Yes Base: Residents of Quebec; most recent data point Nov. 5 n=365
For more information: Frank Graves, President fgraves@ekos.com Paul Adams, Executive Director padams@ekos.com t: 613 235 7215