COMMUNICATING RENEWABLE ENERGY IN A WOLRD OF MISTRUST HANNE MAY, EDELMAN.ERGO INPUT FOR WORKSHOP 2 - #REMFORUM 2017
Agenda 1 2 3 4 5 BIG PICTURE: THE STATE OF TRUST IN FOCUS: HOW THE GERMANS PERCEIVE THE ENERGIEWENDE INSIDERS VIEW: COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS IN ENERGIEWENDE COMMUNICATION BREAKING THE CIRLCE LET S DISCUSS... 2
WHOM IS TRUSTED? EDELMAN TRUST BAROMETER 3
2017 Edelman Trust Barometer methodology Online Survey in 28 Countries General Online Population Informed Public Mass Population 17 years of data 33,000+ respondents total All fieldwork was conducted between October 13th and November 16th, 2016 6 years in 25+ markets Ages 18+ 1,150 respondents per country 9 years in 20+ markets Represents 13% of total global population 500 respondents in U.S. and China; 200 in all other countries All population not including Informed Public Represents 87% of total global population All slides show General Online Population unless otherwise noted Must meet 4 criteria: Ages 25-64 College educated In top 25% of household income per age group in each country Report significant media consumption and engagement in business news 4
A world of distrust Average trust in institutions, general population, 2016 vs. 2017 Trusters (60-100) Neutrals (50-59) Distrusters (1-49) Edelman.ergo 50 Global 2016 2017 73 China 66 UAE 65 India 64 Singapore 62 Indonesia 60 Mexico 56 Canada 55 Colombia 52 Netherlands 51 Argentina 51 Malaysia 50 Brazil 49 Australia 49 Italy 49 U.S. 47 Hong Kong 46 Spain 45 S. Africa 42 Germany 42 S. Korea 42 U.K. 41 France 41 Ireland 41 Turkey 39 Russia 38 Japan 37 Sweden 35 Poland 10/05/2017 47 Global 72 India 69 Indonesia 67 China 60 Singapore 60 UAE 53 Netherlands 52 Mexico 52 U.S. 50 Colombia 49 Canada 48 Brazil 48 Italy 48 Malaysia 45 Argentina 44 Hong Kong 44 Spain 43 Turkey 42 Australia 42 S. Africa 41 Germany 40 France 40 U.K. 38 S. Korea 37 Sweden 36 Ireland 35 Japan 35 Poland 34 Russia 3-point decrease in the global Trust Index Trust declines in 21 of 28 countries the broadest declines since beginning general population tracking in 2012 2 in 3 countries are now distrusters 5
Mass population left behind Average trust in institutions, informed public vs. mass population Trusters (60-100) Neutrals (50-59) Distrusters (1-49) Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer. The Trust Index is an average of a country s trust in the institutions of government, business, media and NGOs. Informed Public and Mass Population, 28- country global total. Edelman.ergo Informed Public 60 Global 80 India 79 China 78 Indonesia 77 UAE 71 Singapore 68 U.S. 62 Canada 62 Netherlands 61 Italy 61 Mexico 57 Malaysia 57 Spain 56 France 56 U.K. 55 Colombia 54 Australia 54 Germany 53 Hong Kong 51 Argentina 51 Brazil 50 S. Korea 50 Turkey 49 Japan 49 S. Africa 47 Sweden 45 Russia 44 Ireland 43 Poland 10/05/2017 Mass Population 45 Global 70 India 67 Indonesia 62 China 59 Singapore 59 UAE 52 Netherlands 50 Colombia 50 Mexico 47 Brazil 47 Canada 47 Italy 47 Malaysia 47 U.S. 45 Argentina 42 Hong Kong 41 S. Africa 41 Spain 41 Turkey 40 Australia 39 Germany 38 France 37 U.K. 36 S. Korea 36 Sweden 35 Ireland 34 Japan 34 Poland 31 Russia The Mass Population distrusts their institutions in 20 of 28 countries 6
Trust in all four institutions declines Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, 2016 vs. 2017 2016 2017 Trusted Two of four institutions distrusted Neutral 50% 55 53 53 52 Distrusted 48 43 42 41-2 -1-5 -1 NGOs Business Media Government 7
Global 28 GDP 5 Spain Sweden U.K. Ireland Argentina Australia Japan Germany S. Africa Canada Poland S. Korea France Italy Turkey Russia Netherlands U.S. Hong Kong Brazil Colombia Singapore Malaysia Mexico UAE China Indonesia India Energy sector trusted in half of countries Percent trust in the energy sector, 2016 vs. 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change Trusted in 14 countries 50% 61 59 44 44 47 49 50 50 50 51 52 53 Declines in 5 countries 65 65 67 68 68 56 57 58 59 61 62 71 72 72 75 82 86 87 +4 +4 +5 +5 +4-1 -1-1 +4 +7 +10 +1 +3-2 +3 +3 +9 +5 +11 +4 +8 +12 +3 +2 +4 +2-4 0 +12 +8 8
Trust in energy sub-sectors increases Trust in the energy sub-sectors, 2016 vs 2017 2016 2017 65 68 59 57 55 53 46 49 43 NA* Cleantech Natural Gas Utilities Oil Nuclear * Nuclear first time included Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 9
Global 28 GDP 5 Japan Ireland U.K. Poland Australia Russia S. Korea Germany Spain Argentina France Netherlands Canada Singapore Sweden Turkey U.S. S. Africa Hong Kong Malaysia Colombia Brazil UAE Italy China Mexico India Indonesia Cleantech trusted in 22 of 28 countries Percent trust in the cleantech sub-sector, 2016 vs. 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change Trusted in 22 countries 50% 68 64 50 53 Declines in 7 countries 56 58 59 59 60 62 62 64 65 65 67 68 68 70 70 72 73 73 74 75 77 78 81 82 84 87 +3-1 +2-8 -5 +4-6 +8 0 0-2 +1 +4 +1 +2 +5 +10 +13 +2 +8 +17-1 +16 +4 0 +9-3 -1 +7 +14 Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 10
Without trust, belief in the system fails How true are each of the following? Sense of injustice System biased in favor of elites, elites indifferent to the people, getting richer than they deserve Lack of hope Hard work not rewarded, children will not have a better life, country not moving in right direction Lack of confidence No confidence in current leaders Desire for change Need forceful reformers to bring change Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 11
Majority believe the system is failing them How true is this for you? System failing 53% Approximately 1 in 3 are uncertain System working 32% Sense of injustice Lack of hope Lack of confidence Desire for change 15% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Completely true Not at all true Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 12
The cycle of fear and distrust Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 13
Echo Chamber amplifies fears and accelerates the cycle Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 14
The Echo Chamber in action Facts matter less Bias is the filter No humans needed Nearly 1 in 2 agree I would support politicians I trust to make things better for me and my family even if they exaggerated the truth 53% Do not regularly listen to people or organizations with whom they often disagree Nearly 4x more likely to ignore information that supports a position they do not believe in More likely to believe 59% Search engines 41% Human editors 52% Never or rarely change their position on important social issues 53 % Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 15
A person like yourself Technical expert Academic expert Employee Financial industry analyst NGO representative CEO Board of directors Government official/ regulator Peers now as credible as experts Percent who rate each spokesperson as extremely/very credible, and change from 2016 to 2017 + Y-to-Y Change A person like yourself now tied for most credible spokesperson CEO credibility decreased the most, dropping to an all-time low People in this country have had enough of experts. 60 60 60 48 46 43 37 35 29-3 1-7 -5-4 -7-5 -12-10 -6 Michael Gove, Member of Parliament, U.K. -7-5 16
IN FOCUS PERCEPTION OF THE ENERGIEWENDE IN GERMANY 17
Perception of renewable energy is highly positive Do we need more? In my backyard? Out of my pocket? > 90% We like them, we need them and we want more! 38 73%* We like them in our neigbourhood! *range from biogas to PV 54% We accept the monthly bill! Source: 2016 Agentur für Erneuerbare Energien, Acceptance Survey Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 18
Energiewende resistance... is growing & improving appr. > 100 action groups against wind, solar, biomass and related infrastructure increasing level of professionalism (regional and federal networking, party Freier Horizont, SoMe activities) populist party AfD: a haven for reactionist energy policy established parties: growing resistance reflexes 19
INSIDERS VIEW COMMUNICATING THE ENERGIEWENDE 20
Some common communication misconceptions I BUSINESS VS. PEOPLE & POLITICS... AND HOW THEY CLASH We are the good guys, they should love us. We bring good to the people, they will benefit. We know this business, we can do the Energiewende better and more professional. There is no moral superiority of renewable energy vs. other energy businesses. Many people lack the financial resources to invest. People focus on more than economic benefits, but economic benefits can be a huge societal divider. People want renewable energy production in their hands. Be serious on your goals and your ambition to find a common solution. 21
Some common communication misconceptions II POLITICS VS. PEOPLE & BUSINESS... AND HOW THEY CLASH We have to balance policies with the interests of all stakeholder groups. We take only risks, that will not harm our economy. We stick to our goals and focus on how to frame them. Stakeholders have very different levels of influence. The (German) regulatory system is getting too complex, intransparent and slow. Tackling reforms keeps risk manable, delaying them or provoking disruption brings much higher risk and costs. Fortunes are communicated much faster and more often than misfortunes. People lose trust, if missing goals lacks consequences. Be less bureaucratic and more emphatic. 22
Some common communication misconceptions III PEOPLE VS. POLITICS & BUSINESS... AND HOW THEY CLASH We want to participate and decide on every step of a project. We have invested and now we want a guaranteed return. We have already done our part in renewable energy and infrastructure, now its up to others. There is division of powers and responsibilites in procedures. The people cannot decide on every step, but transparency can be improved. Investors always take risks. The risk level needs to be made clear in advance and brought to mind. It is not enough to achieve 100%; some villages, regions or businesses need to do more. Be as transparent and participative as possible right from the start. 23
BREAKING THE CIRCLE 24
First steps to overcome myth and desinformation Identify your target group(s) and their Energiewende perception Tailor your messages Adapt facts and stories to their life reality Be relevant, consistent, authentical and emotional Use most trustful messengers Be where they are Achieve credibility 25
Hanne May Head of Energy Consulting Edelman.ergo GmbH hanne.may@edelmanergo.com T: +49 (0)30 20 18 05-50 Charlottenstraße 68 10117 Berlin Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 26
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BACK-UP 28
Global 28 GDP 5 Turkey Ireland Poland Russia Australia Japan U.K. France Sweden S. Africa Argentina S. Korea Germany Hong Kong Malaysia Spain UAE Canada Colombia Mexico U.S. Brazil Italy Netherlands Singapore China India Indonesia Trust in media plunges to all-time lows Percent trust in media, and change from 2016 to 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change Distrusted in 82% of countries 65 66 67 50% 43 43 25 All-time low in 17 countries 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 29 39 40 40 42 42 42 44 44 45 45 47 47 48 48 54 54-5 -5 +2-10 -3-7 -10-6 -4-5 +2-6 -13-3 -2-5 -3-5 -15-10 -10-11 0-6 -2-1 -6-8 +3 +4 29
Global 28 GDP 5 S. Africa Poland Brazil Mexico France Spain S. Korea Italy Colombia Ireland Argentina U.K. Australia Japan Malaysia Germany Hong Kong Canada Russia Sweden U.S. Netherlands Turkey Singapore Indonesia India UAE China Trust in government further evaporates Percent trust in government, and change from 2016 to 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change Distrusted in 75% of countries 69 71 75 75 76 50% 41 47 15 Declines in 14 countries 20 24 24 25 25 28 31 32 32 33 36 37 37 37 38 40 43 44 45 47 51 51-1 +1-1 +1 +3-8 +1-1 -7 +1 0 0 +7 0-8 -2-2 -1-5 -10-9 0 +8 +2 +9-5 +13 +10-5 -3 30
Global 28 GDP 5 Russia Sweden Japan Germany Ireland Netherlands U.K. Poland Australia Turkey France UAE S. Korea Malaysia S. Africa U.S. Canada Hong Kong Italy Brazil Colombia Spain China Singapore Argentina Indonesia India Mexico Trust in NGOs declines Percent trust in NGOs, and change from 2016 to 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change 50% 53 47 Distrusted in 8 countries Declines in 21 countries 46 46 43 39 48 52 53 54 55 56 NGOs less trusted than business in 11 countries 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 60 60 61 61 64 64 71 71 31 21 23-2 -4-6 -3-3 -6-6 -3-4 -2-5 -2-2 -4-2 -3 0 +1-2 +2 +1-2 -3 0-10 -1-6 +7 +7-3 31
Global 28 GDP 5 S. Korea Hong Kong Russia Poland Ireland Japan Germany Turkey Argentina U.K. Spain Sweden Australia France Canada Italy Malaysia S. Africa Singapore U.S. Netherlands Brazil Colombia UAE China Mexico India Indonesia Business on the brink of distrust Percent trust in business, and change from 2016 to 2017 Distrust Neutral Trust + Y-to-Y Change 50% 52 51 Distrusted in 13 countries Declines in 18 countries 39 40 41 41 43 43 34 29 45 45 46 46 48 50 50 55 56 56 58 58 60 61 64 64 67 67 74 76-1 +1-4 -5 +1 +2-2 -2 +1 +1-8 -1-2 0-4 +4-6 -2-2 -4-2 +7 +4-3 -6-3 -3-9 +5 +5 32
The cycle of fear and distrust Edelman.ergo 10/05/2017 33
Global France Italy Mexico S. Africa Spain Poland Brazil Colombia Germany U.K. Australia Ireland U.S. Netherlands Canada Sweden Argentina Malaysia Turkey Russia S. Korea Indonesia Japan India Hong Kong Singapore China UAE Systemic distrust and fear trigger action Above-average level of fear Above-average belief the system is Failing Countries with multiple fears and failing system Corruption Immigration Globalization Eroding social values Pace of change % Who agree system is failing 53 72 72 67 67 67 64 62 62 62 60 59 59 57 56 55 55 53 52 51 48 48 42 42 36 35 30 23 19 10 countries with aboveaverage belief the system is failing and multiple fears 4 countries with aboveaverage belief the system is failing but lack multiple fears 34