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THE ARAB SPRING

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THE ARAB SPRING WILL IT LEAD TO DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS? Edited by Clement Henry and Jang Ji-Hyang

THE ARAB SPRING Copyright The Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 2012. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-34402-1 All rights reserved. First published 2012 by The Asan Institute for Policy Studies First Published in the United States in 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-137-34403-8 ISBN 978-1-137-34404-5 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9781137344045 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. First Palgrave Macmillan edition: September 2013 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

EDITORS Clement Henry Clement Henry is the Chair of the Political Science Department at the American University in Cairo and Emeritus Professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Henry previously taught at the University of California, both at Berkeley and Los Angeles, at the University of Michigan, the Institut d Etudes Politiques de Paris, and the American University in Beirut. In addition to the politics of international oil, Dr. Henry s research interests include Middle Eastern responses to globalization, banking systems in Islamic Mediterranean countries, Islamic banking, and the development of civil societies in the Arab world. He has spent over 12 years in Algiers, Beirut, Cairo and Rabat and has written, co-authored, or edited 11 books and numerous articles on the region, including Globalization and the Politics of Development in the Middle East (coedited with Robert Springborg, 2001), The Mediterranean Debt Crescent (1996), The Politics of Islamic Finance (co-edited with Kate Gillespie, 2004), and Oil in the New World Order (1995). He is currently working on a second edition of Globalization and the Politics of Development in the Middle East which presents a dialectical analysis of economic development strategies in the region. Dr. Henry received an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan and his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University. 6 The Arab Spring

Jang Ji-Hyang Jang Ji-Hyang is a Research Fellow and the Director of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, Korea. She also serves as a Policy Advisor on Middle East political and security issues to South Korea s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Dr. Jang has previously taught comparative politics, Middle East politics, and the political economy of development at leading Korean universities including Seoul National University, Ewha Woman s University, and the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Her research primarily focuses on the relationship between democracy, capitalism, and globalization in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Muslim World using historical and rational choice institutionalism. Her most recent English publications include: Calculations and Choices in Asymmetric Conflict: Incentivizing Ethnic and Religious Identity in Turkey, The Korean Journal of Area Studies (2012), Weak State, Weak Civil Society: The Politics of State-Society Relations in the Arab World, The Journal of International and Area Studies (2009), and Islamic Fundamentalism, International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (2008). She has also recently published a Korean translation of Fawaz Gerges Journey of the Jihadist: Inside Muslim Militancy (2011). Dr. Jang received a B.A. in Turkish Studies and an M.A. in Political Science from the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin. Editors 7

CONTENTS Preface Hahm Chaibong 10 Introduction Clement Henry, Jang Ji-Hyang, and Robert P. Parks 12 1 DOMESTIC POLITICAL TRANSITION AND REGIONAL SPILLOVER CHAPTER 1 Lisa Anderson 27 Early Adopters and Neighborhood Effects CHAPTER 2 Eva Bellin 33 A Modest Transformation: Political Change in the Arab World after the Arab Spring 2 ECONOMIC CORRELATES OF POLITICAL MOBILIZATION CHAPTER 3 Clement Henry 53 Political Economies of Transition 3 SOCIAL NETWORKS AND CIVIL SOCIETY CHAPTER 4 Mohamed Kerrou 79 New Actors of the Revolution and the Political Transition in Tunisia CHAPTER 5 Robert P. Parks 101 Algeria and the Arab Uprisings CHAPTER 6 Arang Keshavarzian 127 The Plurality of Politics in Post-Revolutionary Iran

4 VARIETIES OF POLITICAL ISLAM CHAPTER 7 Fawaz Gerges 135 The Evolution of Islamist Movements CHAPTER 8 Jang Ji-Hyang 141 Islamic Capital and Democratic Deepening CHAPTER 9 Kemal Kirisci 159 Is the Turkish Model Relevant for the Middle East? 5 PROTRACTED VIOLENCE IN SYRIA AND LIBYA CHAPTER 10 Diederik Vandewalle 185 Libya after the Civil War: The Legacy of the Past and Economic Reconstruction CHAPTER 11 Bassam Haddad 211 Syria, the Arab Uprisings, and the Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience 6 DILEMMAS OF THE UNITED STATES CHAPTER 12 Michael C. Hudson 231 US Middle East Policy and the Arab Spring CHAPTER 13 Uzi Rabi 241 The Obama Administration s Middle East Policy: Changing Priorities Epilogue Clement Henry, Jang Ji-Hyang, and Peter Lee 256 Appendix 2011 Asan Middle East Conference: Question and Answer Sections 270 List of Contributors 304 Index 306

PREFACE N early two years since it first erupted in Tunisia, the popular uprisings of the Arab Spring continue to shake the foundations of decades of authoritarian rule across the Middle East and North Africa. While their precise nature or the political, economic and strategic implications for the region and the rest of the world have yet to be assessed, there is no doubt that they will be profound. The region has long-played a critical role in South Korea s economic development. Indeed, it is well-neigh impossible to tell the story of modern Korea without mentioning the Middle East. The so-called Middle East Boom of the 1970s was one of the turning points in South Korea s development. When the 1973-74 Oil Crisis hit, crippling the fledgling South Korean economy, Korean businessmen made the daring decision to stake their future on the Middle East construction boom that was being fueled by oil money. In 1975, Hyundai Construction won a contract to build a terminal in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jubail for $900 million roughly 30 percent of South Korea s annual budget at the time. It not only saved the company, but quite literally saved the country from going bankrupt. Millions of Korean workers went to work across the region throughout the 1970s and 1980s. It was in the Middle East that South Korean construction and heavy industry companies first made their mark on their way to becoming global competitors. Today, the region continues to hold enormous importance for Korea. South Korea imports more than 90% of its energy needs from the Middle East. In 2009, South Korea won a $20 billion contract to build 10 The Arab Spring

nuclear power plants in UAE, marking South Korea s rise as a global player in the nuclear power generation market. In 2011, South Korean firms won nearly $30 billion worth of construction projects throughout the region. Given such deep economic ties with the Middle East, the political changes currently taking place in the region are of momentous consequence for South Korea. From the price of oil to American foreign policy in the region and its impact on Korea, the two region s futures remain deeply intertwined. Moreover, as a country that has gone through its own democratic transition only 25 years ago, the Arab Spring and its impact on the political future of the region is of abiding interest for South Koreans. The project on the Arab Spring was initiated to provide our own assessment of the changes currently taking place in the region and their implications for South Korea. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. Jang Ji-Hyang, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Center and the center s Program Officer, Mr. Peter Lee, for all their work in bringing the project to fruition. Hahm Chaibong President, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies Seoul, November 2012 Preface 11