The Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador and in the Americas, 2016/17: A Comparative Study of Democracy and Governance Executive Summary By Ricardo Córdova Macías, Ph.D. FUNDAUNGO Mariana Rodríguez, Ph.D. LAPOP Program Coordinator and Report Editor Vanderbilt University Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Ph.D. LAPOP Director and Series Editor Vanderbilt University November 2017 This study is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and LAPOP and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Executive Summary Table of Contents Introduction... 5 Chapter 1. Chapter 2. Chapter 3. Chapter 4. Chapter 5. Chapter 6. Support for Electoral Democracy in the Americas... 6 The Supply of Basic Liberties in the Americas... 9 Citizen Security and Violence Prevention at the Local Level... 15 Economic Evaluations, Institutional Trust, Electoral Behavior and Political Parties... 24 Civil Society, Citizen Participation, and Corruption... 29 Democratic Orientations in the Americas... 35 Page 3
Executive Summary Introduction Democracy is on the defensive in the Americas and around the world. In a number of places across the Americas, countries have been coping with security and economic crises, and scandals emanating from governments and parties. Among the public, skepticism is developing over the extent to which democracy can succeed in delivering on citizens expectations and improving the quality of their daily lives. The 2016/17 AmericasBarometer taps into this growing frustration and permits it to be studied in comparative perspective across population subgroups, countries, and time. The survey also documents some notable signs of resilience. In this same vein, the survey reveals important nuances in the challenges to democratic governance across a heterogeneous region. In this way, the AmericasBarometer provides a refined tool with which to make the types of diagnoses and distinctions that are so important to designing and implementing effective policy. A core focus of the AmericasBarometer is citizens evaluations of democratic governance. This refers to a system of politics and policy in which citizens direct, indirect, and representative participation is privileged and enabled via basic freedoms, with the goal of ensuring that states are held accountable for their actions. As the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) (2013) has defined it, Democratic governance is governance that takes place in the context of a democratic political system, which is representative of the will and interests of the people and is infused with the principles of participation, inclusion, and accountability (p. 37). The appeal of democratic governance is derived from its potential to improve the quality of citizens lives by facilitating efforts to decrease corruption, increase economic development (and decrease poverty), and build strong communities. The legitimacy of democratic governance hinges, at least in part, on how well it delivers on these expectations (Booth and Seligson 2009). For this reason, taking stock of its successes and shortcomings requires assessing citizens varied experiences and evaluations under democratic governance. This report summarizes the main findings of the 2016/17 AmericasBarometer survey in El Salvador. LAPOP has carried out the AmericasBarometer in El Salvador since 2004. The 2016/17 survey was conducted by Fundaungo between October and December 2016, and 1,512 people were interviewed as part of the nationally representative survey. Page 5
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Chapter 1. Support for Electoral Democracy in the Americas This chapter considers support for the abstract concept of democracy and two of its most fundamental components: elections and parties. There is a significant decline in the extent to which the public agrees that democracy, despite its flaws, is better than any other form of government. In the Latin America and Caribbean region, support for democracy decreased by almost 9 percentage points between 2014 and 2016/17. As shown in Figure 1, although most citizens in El Salvador have supported democracy since 2004, the percentage that supports democracy has declined to its lowest level in 2016 (54.6%). A little more than half of the citizens (54.6%) support democracy as the best form of government in 2016, which places El Salvador in the middle range of support for democracy compared to the rest of the countries in the region. Support for Democracy (%) 80 60 40 20 0 67.8% 66.3% 60.6% 63.4% 62.9% 57.7% 54.6% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Uruguay 82.4% Canada 79.2% Argentina 77.2% United States 73.0% Costa Rica 71.5% Dominica 67.5% St. Kitts & Nevis 67.1% St. Vincent & the Grenadines 66.9% Dominican Republic 61.8% Antigua & Barbuda 61.5% Chile 61.0% Venezuela 59.8% Panama 59.2% Grenada 58.5% Nicaragua 58.0% Guyana 56.3% Jamaica 55.8% Bolivia 55.7% El Salvador 54.6% Colombia 53.3% Ecuador 52.8% Peru 52.7% Brazil 52.4% St. Lucia 52.2% Honduras 51.0% Haiti 50.0% Mexico 49.4% Paraguay 48.6% Guatemala 48.4% 0 20 40 60 80 Survey Round Support for Democracy (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 1. Support for Democracy in El Salvador and in the Americas In addition to support for democracy in theory, acceptance of democracy as the only game in town is key to the stability and persistence of democratic governance. This means, in short, that citizens in democratic societies should not support the shutdown of legislative bodies by the executive branch. Support for executive coups Page 6
Executive Summary in El Salvador is lower than support for military coups. However, as shown in Figure 2, the levels of support for an executive closure of Congress increased in the AmericasBarometer 2016 for El Salvador by 2.6 percentage points. Nevertheless, there is a pattern of relative stability since 2010. El Salvador ranks among the countries with lowest support for executive coups (16.1%) in 2016/17. Support for Congressional Shutdown (%) 20 15 10 5 0 17.1% 16.1% 14.7% 13.5% 2010 2012 2014 2016 Peru 37.8% Haiti 30.0% Paraguay 28.7% Bolivia 24.8% Guatemala 24.4% Chile 23.0% Panama 22.8% Canada 22.0% Ecuador 21.6% Nicaragua 19.9% Honduras 19.7% Brazil 19.5% Dominican Republic 19.1% Costa Rica 18.9% Jamaica 18.4% Mexico 17.0% United States 16.6% El Salvador 16.1% Colombia 15.3% Venezuela 13.0% Argentina 11.3% Uruguay 8.7% 0 10 20 30 40 Survey Round Support for Congressional Shutdown (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 2. Support for Executive Coups in El Salvador and in the Americas Electoral democracy relies on citizen participation through elections: voters select their representatives and voice their preferences at the ballot box. Public trust and participation in these institutions are therefore important for understanding citizen support for democracy as it functions in the real world, while also serving as a signal of citizens commitment to democracy (a foundational part of democratic consolidation). Citizens legitimize electoral democracy by participating in elections and by trusting that elections serve as a mechanism to select leaders. On average, trust in elections is low in the Americas. As shown in Figure 3, El Salvador is in an intermediate range compared to other countries in the region, with about one-third of respondents reporting trust in elections, a significant drop of more than 10 percentage points compared to the 2014 survey round. Page 7
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Trust Elections (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 50.2% 48.9% 38.0% 2012 2014 2016 Uruguay 73.3% Canada 67.0% Costa Rica 56.5% Nicaragua 51.5% United States 49.8% Ecuador 49.3% Bolivia 45.2% Chile 44.2% Argentina 42.4% Venezuela 41.4% Peru 41.0% Panama 38.2% El Salvador 38.0% Dominican Republic 34.8% Guatemala 34.7% Honduras 34.3% Jamaica 31.8% Paraguay 31.6% Mexico 26.2% Colombia 24.0% Brazil 23.4% Haiti 18.5% 0 20 40 60 80 Survey Round Trust Elections (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 3. Trust in Elections in El Salvador and in the Americas Parties also serve an important role for citizens. By organizing politics on policy lines, parties enable voters to identify a team that aligns with their preferences. At their best, parties facilitate citizen participation in the democratic process and ensure high quality representation. El Salvador has an intermediate level of confidence in political parties (19.1%) compared to other countries in the region. Figure 4 shows that confidence in political parties has declined sharply in El Salvador since 2004: while 34.4% trusted parties in 2004, only 19.1% report trusting parties in 2016. Indeed, the levels of trust in political parties in 2016 are the lowest that have been recorded since the study began in El Salvador. Between 2014 and 2016, confidence in political parties in El Salvador declined significantly, with a drop of nearly six percentage points. On average, trust in elections did not decline for the LAC region as a whole between 2014 and 2016/17, but trust in parties did. Thus, on this latter measure (parties), the decrease in trust in El Salvador mirrors a regional trend, while on the former (elections), El Salvador stands out from the region s cross-time trend. Page 8
Executive Summary 40 34.4% Nicaragua Canada Uruguay 35.1% 31.7% 26.7% Venezuela 23.3% Trust in Political Parties (%) 30 20 10 28.6% 26.7% 24.5% 24.9% 22.5% 19.1% Honduras Jamaica Dominican Republic Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Argentina Bolivia Paraguay Guatemala Mexico United States Haiti 22.8% 22.5% 20.4% 20.1% 20.0% 19.1% 17.2% 16.3% 15.5% 14.6% 13.8% 13.5% 13.5% Panama 13.3% Colombia 10.0% Brazil 9.0% 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Chile 8.5% Peru 7.5% 0 10 20 30 40 Survey Round Trust in Political Parties (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 4. Trust in Political Parties in El Salvador and in the Americas Chapter 2. The Supply of Basic Liberties in the Americas Basic liberties, such as freedom of the media, expression, and fundamental human rights, are critical to public engagement and inclusion in the democratic political system. Restrictions on basic liberties may undermine motivations to participate and erode individuals support for the incumbent administration and the democratic system more generally. El Salvador is among the countries with the highest percentage of citizens who perceive restrictions on freedom of the press. As seen in Figure 5, 53% of Salvadorans believe that there is very little press freedom, 20% believe that there is too much, and 27% believe that the level of freedom of the press is sufficient. Page 9
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Canada United States Uruguay Argentina Costa Rica Haiti Dominican Republic Chile Paraguay Brazil Peru Nicaragua Jamaica El Salvador Bolivia Panama Guatemala Colombia Mexico Ecuador Honduras Venezuela 11% 20% 20% 29% 32% 34% 35% 35% 40% 46% 47% 47% 47% 53% 54% 55% 57% 58% 58% 58% 59% 67% 74% 15% 63% 17% 58% 22% 34% 38% 38% 29% 34% 32% 26% 39% 37% 28% 31% 29% 26% 28% 24% 29% 32% 21% 25% 28% 27% 20% 22% 23% 27% 18% 21% 23% 26% 17% 25% 18% 23% 18% 20% 21% 17% 16% Level of Freedom of the Press Today Very Little Sufficient Too Much Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016/17 (Lib1) Figure 5. Assessments of Freedom of the Press, 2016/17 Trust in the media has decreased in the Americas over time; in the average country in 2016/17, only about 1 in 2 individuals trusts the media. El Salvador is in an intermediate range compared to other countries in the region, with more than half of the citizens expressing confidence in the media (see Figure 6). The percentage of Salvadorans that trusts the media returned to its lowest level in 2016. While in 2004, more than 2 out of 3 people (67.5%) expressed trust in the media, only 51.9% expressed trust the media in El Salvador in 2016. Page 10
Executive Summary Trust the Media (%) 80 60 40 20 0 67.5% 57.5% 59.5% 54.7% 50.4% 51.9% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 Nicaragua 69.0% Dominican Republic 67.7% Paraguay 63.6% Costa Rica 62.5% Panama 60.0% Guatemala 58.4% Honduras 57.7% Ecuador 55.1% Brazil 52.5% Bolivia 52.1% El Salvador 51.9% Venezuela 51.7% Uruguay 50.3% Chile 44.9% Canada 43.7% Argentina 41.7% Peru 41.0% Mexico 40.8% Haiti 39.5% Jamaica 37.9% Colombia 35.8% United States 29.8% 0 20 40 60 80 Survey Round Trust the Media (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 6. Trust in the Media in El Salvador and in the Americas Freedom to express political opinions is particularly important in a democracy. In 2016, two-thirds of Salvadorans feel that there is little freedom to express political views without fear (see Figure 7). Only a quarter of the population thinks that there is enough freedom to express political opinions. El Salvador is among the countries with the greatest percentage of citizens perceiving very little freedom of political expression. Page 11
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Canada Uruguay United States Costa Rica Argentina Chile Dominican Republic Haiti Paraguay Panama Nicaragua Peru Brazil Venezuela Jamaica Honduras Ecuador Bolivia El Salvador Guatemala Mexico Colombia 16% 28% 29% 39% 43% 45% 46% 48% 48% 54% 55% 61% 61% 66% 66% 67% 67% 67% 67% 70% 70% 71% 77% 7% 56% 15% 62% 10% 41% 20% 36% 21% 42% 13% 31% 23% 29% 23% 31% 21% 31% 15% 32% 13% 27% 12% 21% 17% 18% 16% 20% 14% 19% 14% 21% 12% 20% 13% 24% 9% 18% 13% 20% 10% 22% 7% Level of Freedom to Express Political Opinions without Fear Very Little S ufficient Too Much Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016/17 (Lib2c) Figure 7. Assessments of Freedom of Political Expression, 2016/17 While concerns about deficiencies in levels of freedom of the press and of expression are elevated in the Americas, data from the 2016/17 AmericasBarometer reveal that concerns about human rights are even more pronounced. As shown in Figure 8, El Salvador is among the countries with the lowest percentage of citizens who believe there is sufficient protection of human rights in the country, with 72% saying that there is very little protection for this type of right in 2016. Page 12
Executive Summary Canada United States Uruguay Costa Rica Chile Argentina Nicaragua Ecuador Paraguay Panama Guatemala Brazil Dominican Republic Mexico El Salvador Peru Bolivia Colombia Honduras Venezuela Jamaica Haiti 19% 37% 45% 49% 55% 57% 57% 63% 65% 65% 68% 69% 70% 71% 72% 74% 75% 77% 77% 77% 78% 79% 72% 9% 56% 7% 45% 10% 41% 11% 34% 10% 29% 14% 33% 10% 30% 7% 20% 15% 22% 12% 21% 11% 14% 17% 19% 11% 22% 7% 21% 7% 18% 8% 18% 7% 19% 5% 16% 7% 15% 8% 14% 7% 14% 6% Level of Protection of Human Rights Today Very Little Sufficient Too Much Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016/17 (Lib4) Figure 8. Assessments of Protection of Human Rights, 2016/17 The public s assessments regarding the supply of liberties are condensed into a summary basic liberties deficit index. 1 In the majority of countries Nicaragua, Panama, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Jamaica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Bolivia, Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, and Venezuela the mean degree of perceived inadequacy in the supply of basic liberties is above the mid-point (>50) on the 0 to 100 scale (see Figure 9). 1 For more information see the AmericasBarometer 2016/17 regional comparative report: https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2016/ab2016-17_comparative_report_english_v2_final_090117_w.pdf Page 13
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Venezuela Honduras Colombia Mexico Bolivia Guatemala El Salvador Jamaica Ecuador Peru Brazil Panama Nicaragua Dominican Republic Paraguay Haiti Chile Argentina Costa Rica 69.1 67.6 66.7 65.5 65.1 64.6 63.6 63.2 62.5 59.2 59.0 56.7 52.2 49.5 49.4 48.8 44.7 41.0 39.0 Uruguay United States 29.3 26.1 Canada 14.9 0 20 40 60 80 Basic Liberties Deficit 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016/17 Figure 9. Basic Liberties Deficit Score, 2016/17 Page 14
Executive Summary Chapter 3. Citizen Security and Violence Prevention at the Local Level This chapter explores opinions related to the issue of insecurity and crime at the local level in El Salvador. Particular attention is paid to the opinions regarding the violence prevention initiatives that have been implemented in recent years. These prevention initiatives appear to be fostering an increased interaction among police and citizens. Nevertheless, Salvadorans continue to perceive violence, crime, and insecurity as the main problem facing their country. As seen in Figure 10, approximately 7 out of 10 Salvadorans (68.2%) believe that security is the most serious problem facing the country. Figure 10. The Most Pressing Problem Facing the Country, El Salvador 2016 Young people loitering in the streets and their involvement with gangs play an important role in the perception of insecurity by community members. Occurrences of these two types of situations are the most serious problems identified by the population at the local level, and as shown in Figure 11, concerns about these issues have increased between 2014 and 2016. Page 15
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Page 16 Figure 11. Opinions on Community Problems, El Salvador 2014-2016 Despite the security problems facing the country, 7 out of 10 Salvadorans (71%) believe that the levels of violence in their community are lower than other communities; and approximately 5 out of 10 people (47%) report that levels of violence in the community are lower than the previous year (see Figures 12 and 13).
Executive Summary Figure 12. Opinions on Levels of Violence in the Community as Compared to other Communities, El Salvador 2014-2016 Figure 13. Opinions on Changes of Levels of Violence in the Community in Comparison to the Previous Year, El Salvador 2014-2016 The 2016 round shows an increase in crime victimization: approximately 1 in 4 Salvadorans (23.1%) have been victims of crime in the 12 months prior to the survey, a statistically significant increase Page 17
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 from the 2014 round (18.6%). El Salvador is located in an intermediate position among the continent s countries. Of the Central American countries, only Guatemala has a higher rate of crime victimization (see Figure 14). Victim of Crime 25 20 15 10 5 0 24.2% 23.1% 17.4% 18.6% 2010 2012 2014 2016 Survey Round Venezuela Peru Mexico Ecuador Bolivia Dominican Republic Argentina Colombia Brazil Guatemala Paraguay Uruguay El Salvador Chile Costa Rica Haiti Honduras Nicaragua Panama United States St. Lucia Dominica Canada Jamaica St. Vincent & the Grenadines Guyana Grenada Antigua & Barbuda St. Kitts & Nevis 40.5% 33.0% 30.7% 30.6% 28.8% 26.2% 25.6% 25.1% 23.9% 23.8% 23.7% 23.5% 23.1% 22.4% 22.1% 22.0% 21.6% 18.3% 16.0% 14.4% 12.4% 11.9% 11.2% 10.9% 8.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Victim of Crime (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 14. Crime Victimization in El Salvador and in the Americas As shown in Figure 15, Salvadorans' perception of insecurity in their neighborhood or community, in relation to their perception of the possibility of being the victim of an assault or robbery, improved in 2016 (average of 41.7 degrees) when compared to 2014 (average of 47.2 degrees). The perception of insecurity is greater in those who believe that the police are involved in crime, perceive a greater presence of gangs in their community, have been victims of crime in the last 12 months, report occurrences of extortion, and believe that assaults in the community are a serious problem. El Salvador is, again, located in an intermediate position in comparison to other countries in the region. Of the Central American countries, only Honduras and Guatemala are above El Salvador s average level of insecurity. Page 18
Executive Summary Perception of Neighborhood Insecurity 50 40 30 20 10 0 48.3 50.0 47.2 43.6 44.1 41.8 41.7 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Venezuela Dominican Republic Peru Brazil Bolivia Colombia Haiti Guatemala Paraguay Ecuador Mexico Argentina Uruguay Honduras El Salvador Chile Panama Costa Rica Jamaica Guyana Nicaragua United States Antigua & Barbuda Canada Dominica St. Vincent & the Grenadines St. Lucia St. Kitts & Nevis Grenada 64.8 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 51.2 50.5 50.3 49.6 49.5 48.1 47.5 45.9 43.7 41.7 40.8 40.7 38.5 35.3 33.7 30.5 25.8 24.0 23.5 22.0 21.6 21.3 20.6 16.6 0 20 40 60 80 Survey Round Perception of Insecurity (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2004-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 15. Perceptions of Insecurity in El Salvador and in the Americas Due to fear of crime, 65.9% of Salvadorans have prevented children living in their home from playing in the street in the 12 months prior to the survey. Moreover, 59.9% have limited where they go for recreation, 59.6% have avoided leaving the house by themselves at night, 42.3% have avoided leaving their house itself alone at night, 42.2% have avoided using public transport, 21.1% have felt the need to change neighborhoods or community, and 9.4% have changed their job or place of study. Page 19
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Avoided Letting Children from Home Play in the Streets 65.9% Limited Places for Recreation 59.9% Avoided Leaving Home by Themselves at Night 59.6% Avoided Leaving the House Alone at Night 42.3% Avoided Using Public Transportation 42.2% Felt Need to Move Neighborhoods 21.1% Has Changed Jobs or Place of Study 9.4% 0 20 40 60 80 Percentage 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016; v.elsts_d1 Figure 16. Change in Activities due to Fear of Crime, El Salvador 2016 Two out of three Salvadorans (67%) believe that in order to reduce homicides in the country (see Figure 16), the government should invest more in prevention measures rather than increase punishments against offenders (33%). Results also show that older people, those with a higher level of schooling, and those who experience fewer problems with insecurity are more likely to support prevention initiatives than the rest of the population. Page 20
Executive Summary Figure 17. Opinions on Measures to Reduce Crime, El Salvador 2016 Between 2014 and 2016, public opinion on police performance has improved. As seen in Figure 18, nearly two thirds of Salvadorans are satisfied to some degree with the performance of the police in their neighborhoods. One of the variables that most affects people s evaluation of police performance is the frequency of patrols; that is, those who observe a greater frequency of police patrols in their neighborhoods report greater satisfaction with police performance. Page 21
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Figure 18. Satisfaction with Police Performance in the Community, El Salvador 2014-2016 In 2016, 43% of respondents have seen the police help in crime prevention activities, 40.1% have seen police officers engage with young people, 38.9% say that police officers talk to community residents, and 20% say that police attend neighborhood meetings (see Figure 19). Because the same questions were included in 2014, it is possible to compare the data between the two rounds. The only statistically significant change between 2014 and 2016 is the increase in police support in prevention activities, while the increases seen in the other three questions are not statistically significant. In both rounds, the lowest level of police interaction is seen in police attendance at neighborhood meetings. Page 22
Executive Summary Figure 19. Percentage of Respondents Who Report Police Engagement with the Community, El Salvador 2014-2016 Page 23
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Chapter 4. Economic Evaluations, Institutional Trust, Electoral Behavior and Political Parties This chapter explores electoral behavior in El Salvador, focusing on contextual aspects, as well as Salvadorans assessments of parties, politics, and democracy. As shown in Figure 20, Salvadorans have a negative perception of their country s current economic state. The results of the 2016 survey show that 7 out of 10 Salvadorans (69.6%) believe that the country's economic situation is worse than the 12 months prior to the survey. This percentage is the highest reported in the 2010-2016 period. National Economy is Worse 80 60 40 20 68.5% 72.1% 47.3% 55.0% 45.4% 69.6% 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Survey Round 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2006-2016; v.elsts_d1 Figure 20. Percentage of Respondents Who Believe the National Economy is Worse, El Salvador 2006-2016 The results of the 2016 survey show that a significant percentage of the population (58.9%) is dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in El Salvador (see Figure 21). In the 2016 round, the percentage of citizens that express satisfaction with democracy in El Salvador is 41.1%, the lowest since 2010. Page 24
Executive Summary Figure 21. Percentage of Respondents Satisfied with how Democracy Functions, El Salvador 2004-2016 Another approach to assessing the country's political state is through the trust that Salvadorans have in their democratic institutions. As seen in Figure 22, the group of institutions with the highest level of trust in 2016 includes the Armed Forces (66.2) and the Catholic Church (61.2). The second group includes the municipality (57.2), the media (57.1), the National Civil Police (55.4), the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (51.3) and the Institute for Access to Public Information (50.7). The Government Ethics Tribunal (47.2), the Constitutional Chamber (47), elections (46.8) and the Legislative Assembly (43.9) form a third group. The fourth group includes the President (36.8) and political parties (31.3), which receive the lowest levels of institutional trust. The lowest levels of citizen trust occur among institutions related to elections and the exercise of political power. Page 25
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Page 26 Figure 22. Trust in Institutions, El Salvador 2016 Next, Figure 23 analyzes electoral behavior with respect to the 2014 presidential elections. Those who support a political party report having voted more frequently than those who do not support a political party. Likewise, those who show greater interest in politics also report higher turnout rates. On the other hand, the first-round reported vote rate was higher for those with post-secondary education than those
Executive Summary with a secondary education, primary education, or no formal education. Finally, the 18-25 age group reports the lowest turnout rate, and the reported turnout rate increases until 56-65 years of age, before decreasing for those 66 years of age and older. Although the graph does not include the following in the bivariate analysis, those who feel their personal economic situation has improved, reported lower turnout rates, while those who believe that the country s economic situation has improved turned out at higher rates. Figure 23. Predictors of Participation in the First Round of the 2014 Presidential Elections, El Salvador 2016 The percentage of citizens that sympathize with a political party has decreased in El Salvador. In the 2016 survey, only 1 in 4 Salvadorans (26.4%) expressed sympathy with a political party (see Figure 24). This is the lowest level of sympathy reported by respondents in the 2006-2016 period. Similarly, citizen trust in political parties experienced a statistically significant reduction, going from an average (on a 0-100 scale) of 36.7 in 2014 to 31.3 in 2016. Page 27
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Figure 24. Percentage of Respondents Who Sympathize with a Political Party, El Salvador 2006-2016 Citizens' interest in politics also dropped significantly, from an average of 38.7 in 2014 (on a 0-100 scale) to 34.3 in 2016. The 2016 survey data show that 7 out of 10 Salvadorans report little or no interest in politics (see Figure 25). Page 28 Figure 25. Interest in Politics in El Salvador, 2006-2016
Executive Summary Support for electoral democracy in El Salvador remains strong in the 2004-2016 period. As Figure 26 shows, approximately 7 out of 10 Salvadorans (73%) express a preference for an electoral democracy; although there is a worrying increase over time, from 6% in 2004 to 27% in 2016, in the percentage of respondents who favor a strong leader who does not have to be elected. 2016 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 27% 18% 12% 16% 12% 6% 73% 82% 88% 84% 88% 94% Strong Leader vs Electoral Democracy We Need a Strong Leader Who Does Not Have to Be Chosen Electoral Democracy is Best Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2016; v.elsts_d1 Figure 26. Preference for Democracy as a Political Regime, El Salvador 2016 Chapter 5. Civil Society, Citizen Participation, and Corruption This chapter explores some aspects of the relationship between Salvadoran citizens and civic participation, including participation in civic organizations, participation in protest, interpersonal trust, and citizens' assessment of the representation of their interests by the national government, local government and legislators. This chapter also examines Salvadorans experiences with and perceptions of corruption. Salvadorans report little involvement in civic organizations. With the exception of participation in religious organizations, Figure 27 shows that more than half of the population reports having never participated Page 29
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 in parent associations (55.5%), community improvement committees (75.1%), political parties (85.4%), or in women s groups (90.2%). Once a week One or two times a month One or two times a year Never Religious Organizations 52.7 14.0 9.0 24.3 Parent Associations 2.5 25.8 16.2 55.5 Community Improvement 2.6 9.4 12.9 75.1 Groups Political Parties 1.0 2.9 10.8 85.4 Women s Groups* 2.8 3.9 3.1 90.2 Figure 27. Level of Participation in Various Groups and Organizations, El Salvador 2016 (percentages) *Data only includes the female population. Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2016; v.elsts_d1 Another dimension of citizen participation explored in the 2016 round is participation in demonstrations or public protests. As shown in Figure 28, the involvement of Salvadorans in these type of events has been very low throughout the 2010-2016 period: only 3 out of 100 Salvadorans reported participating in a protest or demonstration in the year prior to the survey. El Salvador continues to occupy one of the lowest positions in terms of citizen participation in protests. The data indicate that only Saint Lucia and Grenada have lower percentages of participation in public protests in the 2016/17 round of the AmericasBarometer. Page 30
Executive Summary Participated in a Protest 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 2010 2012 2014 2016 Bolivia 17.8% Venezuela 15.8% Paraguay 14.2% Brazil 14.1% Colombia 13.4% Peru 13.1% Argentina 12.9% Dominican Republic 12.2% Uruguay 11.8% Mexico 9.5% Chile 9.5% Guatemala 9.2% Dominica 9.2% Canada 8.8% Haiti 8.7% Antigua & Barbuda 8.7% St. Vincent & the Grenadines 8.5% Honduras 8.4% United States 7.9% Costa Rica 7.7% Guyana 6.6% Nicaragua 6.1% Panama 6.0% Ecuador 4.7% St. Kitts & Nevis 4.4% Jamaica 3.5% El Salvador 3.3% St. Lucia 3.1% Grenada 2.6% 0 5 10 15 20 Survey Round Participated in a Protest (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2010-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 28. Protest Participation in El Salvador and the Americas Salvadorans report intermediate levels of trust in their neighbors. As seen in Figure 29, this level of interpersonal trust among Salvadorans has remained stable through all rounds of the AmericasBarometer, averaging around 60 degrees on a 0-100 scale. At the regional level, the country ranks within the regional average for the 2016/17 round. Interpersonal Trust 80 60 40 20 0 63.1 62.5 65.2 62.2 59.3 62.4 60.2 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Antigua & Barbuda 69.4 Canada 68.9 St. Kitts & Nevis 67.2 Uruguay 66.4 Costa Rica 65.8 Guyana 64.5 Argentina 64.0 Honduras 63.3 Paraguay 63.0 United States 62.9 Grenada 62.3 Nicaragua 60.4 El Salvador 60.2 Chile 59.9 Colombia 59.7 Guatemala 59.4 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 58.9 Dominican Republic 56.5 St. Lucia 56.3 Dominica 55.8 Ecuador 55.2 Panama 54.1 Jamaica 53.6 Mexico 53.3 Venezuela 52.9 Peru 48.3 Bolivia 47.5 Brazil 46.7 Haiti 40.7 0 20 40 60 80 Survey Round Interpersonal Trust (2016/17) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, El Salvador 2010-2016; GM_v.07172017 Figure 29. Interpersonal Trust in El Salvador and the Americas Page 31
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Citizens perceive low levels of representation of their interests by institutions linked to the exercise of State power. According to Figure 30, on a scale of 0-100, the best evaluated institution is the Central Government (38.1), followed by local governments (36.4), and with the Legislative Assembly receiving the poorest evaluation (29.4). However, citizens perceptions of all three institutions has worsened from 2010 to 2016 (see Figure 31). Figure 30. Comparison of Representation of Citizen Interests by Institution, El Salvador 2016 Page 32
Executive Summary Figure 31. Evaluation of Institutional Representation over Time, El Salvador 2010-2016 Citizen perceptions of corruption among public officials has improved between 2014 and 2016, from an average of 68 (2014) to 64.1 (2016), on a 0-100 scale (see Figure 32). However, this perception continues to be high: approximately 6 out of 10 people consider corruption of the country s public officials to be at least somewhat generalized. According to a new question in the AmericasBarometer, 8 out of 10 Salvadorans perceive that at least half of politicians are involved in corruption (see Figure 33). Page 33
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Figure 32. Perception of Corruption of Public Officials, El Salvador 2004-2016 Figure 33. Perception of Corruption of Public Officials, El Salvador 2016 As shown in Figure 34, corruption victimization in El Salvador remains stable between 2014 and 2016 (9.8%). Identifying as male, living in large cities, being younger in age, and having more children increase the probability of being a victim of corruption. Page 34
Executive Summary Figure 34. Victimization by Corruption in El Salvador, 2004-2016 Chapter 6. Democratic Orientations in the Americas Over the years, LAPOP has hypothesized and found that democracy rests on firmer grounds to the extent that the following joint conditions are met: the public perceives the political system to be legitimate and it supports the right to participate of those who may hold diverging political views. Legitimacy and tolerance are, therefore, core elements of democratic culture. These attitudes combine to make unique profiles of democratic orientations. Figure 35 compares levels of the system support index and its five components in El Salvador since 2004. The index and individual component variables are scores that range from 0 to 100, where higher values indicate more positive attitudes toward the system. Support for the political system has reached its lowest level in El Salvador in 2016 (51.2). This is due to a decline in several components of this system support index in 2016: respect for institutions, level of normative support for the system, confidence that basic rights are protected, and pride in the political system of El Salvador. Page 35
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 Figure 35. System Support and Its Components in El Salvador, 2004-2016 As shown in Figure 36, El Salvador ranks at an intermediate level in terms of its mean degrees of support for the political system, in comparison to the other countries in the region. Page 36
Executive Summary Figure 36. System Support in the Americas, 2016/17 High levels of support for the political system do not guarantee the quality and survival of liberal democratic institutions. Liberal democracy also requires citizens to accept the principles of open Page 37
Political Culture of Democracy in El Salvador, 2016/17 democratic competition and tolerance of dissent. Political tolerance in El Salvador increased significantly to 47.7 degrees after a period of stability between 2010 and 2014 (see Figure 37). However, political tolerance in the country remains below the averages observed between 2004 and 2008. The increase in political tolerance among Salvadorans is due to significant increases in all components of this index, which constitute measures of approval of the right to protest, vote, give speeches, and be a political candidate. Figure 37. Political Tolerance and Its Components in El Salvador, 2004-2016 Although El Salvador experienced a significant increase in political tolerance between 2014 and 2016, the country is positioned among the countries in the region with the lowest levels of political tolerance. As shown in Figure 38, Salvadorans rank higher than only Peruvians and Colombians in average political tolerance. Page 38
Executive Summary Figure 38. Political Tolerance in the Americas, 2016/17 Page 39