Island Monitor 4 Population, Migration and Demographic Trends
2016 2016 Island Island Monitor Monitor 4 4 Contents 1 2 3 4 5 6 GLOBAL OVERVIEW PAGE 1 Population Trends PAGE 2 Policy Trends ISLAND CHALLENGES PAGE 3 POPULATION PAGE 5 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE PAGE 9 Demographic Profiles PAGE 15 Islands with an Ageing Population PAGE 19 Dependency Ratios MIGRATION PAGE 21 Migration PAGE 23 Population Models POPULATION MANAGEMENT POLICIES PAGE 28 Island Government Views PAGE 29 Best Practice PAGE 31 Migration Through Islands 7 2016 ISLAND MONITORS PAGE 33 The 12 Island Monitors PAGE 34 Monitor Content Details
Background This is the fourth of twelve Island Monitors that will be produced by Island Global Research in 2016. The primary objectives of the Monitors are to analyse policy and initiatives in island jurisdictions, identify best practice, and benchmark islands in areas of social, economic, and environmental development. This enables island organisations to take inspiration from best practice developed in jurisdictions with similar challenges, identify opportunities, and stay abreast of the competition.
Population, Migration Migration and and Demographic Trends Trends 5 Background (contd.) This Monitor examines demographic trends. Key population statistics are presented with brief analysis, followed by the three Island Population Models developed by Island Global Research. The report concludes by giving a brief overview of the different stances that governments take on factors which influence population levels, and identifies two elements of best practice for development of population management policies. CARIBBEAN REGION Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas Barbados British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Jamaica Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos EUROPEAN & NORTH ATLANTIC REGION Bermuda Cyprus Gibraltar Guernsey Iceland Isle of Man Jersey Malta Prince Edward Island INDIAN OCEAN & SE ASIA REGION Hong Kong Mauritius Seychelles Singapore PACIFIC REGION Cook Islands Fiji Tasmania Vanuatu / Guam Where comparisons have been highlighted between islands, we strive to ensure that such comparisons are made using similar base figures and definitions. If applicable, per capita data is set out to illustrate the differences between the islands more clearly. Not every section contains information on all twenty five islands, and the year from which the most recent available data is drawn may vary between islands. This is noted where relevant in the document. There may also be variations in the way islands categorise and/or collect data, so while the data may provide a strong indication, absolute comparisons should be drawn with caution. While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of information contained in the Monitor, Island Global Research cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out within it. This Monitor can be used as a stand-alone publication, however, it is designed to be read in conjunction with the rest of the series. Demographic trends are important in their own right, but they also form an integral part of the background for understanding the challenges that islands face in other areas, such as health, work and education. Content details of all the 2016 Island Monitor reports can be found on page 34.
2. Island Challenges The following sections identify common demographic challenges facing islands, before presenting the key population statistics and trends that impact on a number of areas including health care, employment and education provision.
Population, Migration and Demographic Trends 4 2. Island Challenges (contd.) Many islands are facing similar challenges with regards to current demographic changes. These include: Population Size Even larger islands, such as Papua New Guinea, have small populations compared to many countries around the world. Additionally, island populations have the challenge of being isolated from mainland areas. While there are positives to this, it also brings a number of challenges which affect all areas of development and service provision. The most important are a lack of economy of scale, high transport costs, small markets and limited human resource pools. Finding the balance between maintaining a high enough population level for sustainable development and economic growth, but without overcrowding or changing the essential character of a community, is a key challenge for island governments. Ageing populations In common with many areas of the world, island populations are increasingly ageing. Even those islands with a young population in absolute terms are seeing a movement towards the more elderly end of the age spectrum. Causes of this include people living longer, decreasing birth rates, and emigration of people of working age in order to find employment opportunities elsewhere. The implications of these trends affect policy decisions for the majority of the topics that will be covered as the Island Monitor series progresses. Dependency Ratios Ageing and emigration is making it harder to maintain a working population large enough to support the needs of those who are too old or too young to work. This is further exacerbated by the need to fill specific skills gaps which may develop on-island due to limited human resources, and is a topic which will covered in the employment Monitor. Depopulation of Outer Islands Migration away from outer islands, often into urban centres, can be seen in various island groups in different areas of the world. An example is the Outer Cook Islands, where the population declined by almost 14% in five years. In island areas undergoing depopulation this can cause community breakdown and a drop in economic productivity. In areas where population density increases, new pressures are put on infrastructure and services, which leads to a corresponding shift in political focus and development priorities. Migration through Islands The recent and on-going international migrant crisis has also increased pressure on some islands. As gateways to more developed regions, these islands have seen an unprecedented influx of refugees and economic migrants. They have found it difficult to cope with the unexpected increase in population density because the required levels of infrastructure and services are not in place, and often cannot be afforded. This is exacerbated by the temporary nature of these populations, as there is a huge drain in resources without any economic contribution or social integration. Teenage Fertility Rates and Gender Equality These are issues which are not covered in depth in the Island Monitor. However, their importance and relation to overall population control should be noted. Teenage fertility rates are still high in some islands despite decreasing overall birth rates. Although this is primarily a health issue, any attempts to reduce these levels should be considered when generating population projections. Equally, gender equality should be taken into consideration when looking at the potential impacts of any population projections. Gender inequality in areas such as the workplace, education, and healthcare, can reduce the amount that half the population can give back to society, as well as give rise to a different set of issues when it is mainly males who migrate away from their home communities for work.
5 2016 Island Monitor 4 3. Population These graphs display the latest available data on the total population for each island covered in this Monitor. Indian Ocean / SE Asia Caribbean Europe / N. Atlantic Pacific Gibraltar Guernsey Bermuda Isle of Man Jersey Prince Edward Island Iceland Malta British Virgin Islands Turks and Caicos Cayman Islands Antigua and Barbuda Barbados Bahamas Seychelles Cook Islands Vanuatu Tasmania 33,140 28,514 33,740 20,900 Total Island Populations (<1m) 62,612 65,180 84,497 59,226 100,800 90,900 91,530 146,447 283,400 332,529 425,384 383,100 284,875 516,630 Fiji 886,500 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000
15 2016 Island Monitor 4 4. Demographic Profile (contd.) Islands with an Ageing Population These graphs show the common trend towards a relative increase in the older population and a relative decrease in the younger population since 2000/01. The Cayman Islands are the only anomaly showing a small increase in the percentage of the population 19 and under. However, in line with the other islands they do still show an increasing percentage of over 60s. Further analysis shows that for most islands, while there have been small increases in the number of over 70s, the biggest increase comes from the 60-69 age bracket. This demonstrates how the population of many islands are increasingly ageing, even those which still have a young population in absolute terms, such as Jamaica. Indian Ocean / SE Asia Pacific Europe / North Atlantic Carribbean Vanuatu Cook Islands Tasmania Mauritius Seychelles Singapore Bahamas Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Barbados Cayman Islands Hong Kong Iceland Cyprus Isle of Man Prince Edward Island Guernsey Malta Jersey Bermuda 52% 43% 28% 34% 35% 28% 38% 42% 37% 29% 22% 23% 32% 29% 24% 33% 23% 25% 22% 25% % Population aged 0 to 19 18% 21% 21% 22% 21% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 25% 28% 27% 28% 27% 29% 34% 34% 36% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1999/2000/01 Latest Census Data
Population, Migration and Demographic Trends 22 5. Migration (contd.) Migrant Population in Selected Islands total migrant population as % of total population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -13% Gibraltar 2.6% 3% 4% 6.6% Isle of Man Bermuda Malta Iceland 12.5% Cyprus -13.8% British Virgin Islands -9.5% Turks and Caicos -1.7% 0.4% 0.8% Trinidad and Tobago Jamaica 3.1% 6.8% 12.5% 0.6% 2.8% Europe / N. Atlantic Caribbean Indian Ocean / SE Asia Bahamas Barbados Cayman Islands Antigua and Barbuda Hong Kong Mauritius 7.6% Seychelles 18.8% Singapore -4.6% Guam 0.7% 1% Fiji Pacific 1990 2000 2010 2013 change in % of total population who are migrants in 2013 compared to 1990 Many islands saw an increase in the migrant population between 1990 and 2013. Some, such as Singapore, saw a much bigger increase over this period than others, be that down to different immigration policies or the attractiveness of the island to potential newcomers. However, this statistic should be looked at in the context of how big a proportion of the total population the migrant population is. Guam, for example, saw a decrease in the migrant population, but this group are still a relatively high proportion of the total population. Meanwhile, in Cyprus, the opposite scenario can be seen. Employment related controls explain the differences in migration levels between islands to an extent. These controls will be outlined in Monitor 6: Employment, however, it is important to note that such policies may not have been the same throughout the period indicated, and that there is a complex network of factors which can influence migration into an island. These could include the perceived desirability of islands to potential migrants, and the increasing or decreasing desirability of other islands in comparison. What does not tend to be reflected in these figures is levels of through migration by refugees and economic migrants, and any resulting temporary migrant population levels. Through migration is where migrants pass through and are often temporarily held on an island on their way to their final destination. Significant examples of islands affected by this in recent years include Malta and the Greek Islands. These islands have seen relatively high migration rates and a high temporary migrant population that has extensive social and economic impacts, but is not captured by looking at resident data. Cook Islands 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% change in % of total population who are migrants
31 2016 Island Monitor 4 6. Population Management Policies (contd.) A report into the social and economic impact of the Migrant Detention Centre on Christmas Island gives an insight into the longer term impacts of having detention centres in small island communities. It was found that those living on Christmas Island perceived there to be both positive and negative effects. The main benefits were a significant economic contribution and employment opportunities for local people. However, many felt these were outweighed by negative social effects. These included, social division and community tension, an altered sense of security and safety, pressure on already deficient infrastructure and service provision, heightened stress and mental health issues, and lifestyle changes. It was also felt by the local community that the centre had caused a downturn in tourism, in addition to economic and political uncertainty - because the islanders feel unable to determine the future of the community as a result of ambiguity around Government policymaking with regards to the detention centre. This economic uncertainty has now come to a head, with the Australian Government announcing the closure of the main centre. In response the President of the Island said: The long-term issue is that the detention centre is a disaster for Christmas Island, because the focus has been on staffing and running our economy around that We need economic development on the island, and having attention and resources directed to a detention centre which is sometimes working, sometimes not, is devastating... We need to see development of agriculture and other industries. The Migrant Crisis in Greece & Malta In Numbers In 2014, Malta had the second highest per capita asylum rate in Europe. Most of these people live in open centres or in the community while on the island. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that <30% of ~17,000 individuals who have arrived in Malta by boat since 2005 remain in the island. >1 million refugees have arrived in Greece since January 2015, and almost all of them came to the Greek Islands and then intended to travel on to mainland Greece and beyond. The new EU-Turkey Agreement has meant that Turkey is now classified as a safe country and new arrivals in Greece are now subject to deportation back to Turkey, but until then people are being held in detention centres. It is reported that the speed at which the agreement has been implemented did not allow the Greek authorities time to prepare. Migrant hotspots on the islands are now overcrowded, policerun detention facilities. Chios, in particular, is thought to be over crowded, with an occupancy of 66% more people than it was intended for.
33 2016 Island Monitor 4 7. 2016 Island Monitors EUROPE / NORTH ATLANTIC Bermuda Cyprus Gibraltar Guernsey Iceland Isle of Man Jersey Malta Prince Edward Island CARIBBEAN Antigua Bahamas Barbados British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Jamaica Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos INDIAN OCEAN / SE ASIA Hong Kong Mauritius Seychelles Singapore PACIFIC REGION Cook Islands Fiji Tasmania Vanuatu / Guam
Population, Migration and Demographic Trends 34 7. 2016 Island Monitors (contd.) The Island Monitor series is aimed at organisations which have an interest in one, or a number, of subjects of strategic island importance. Each 20-40 page Monitor focuses on a sample of 25 islands around the world, and concentrates on the benchmarking of economic, social and environmental indicators, the identification of best practice, and the latest government strategies and policies in place. 1. Island Vulnerability Factors 7. Education, Skills & Training Twenty vulnerability factors specifically relevant to islands identified Review of island education, skills and training resources in place together and benchmarked against best practice. Government strategies to with plans being put in hand to cover lifelong learning opportunities address critical vulnerability areas also highlighted. covered and benchmarked. 2. Climate Change & Environment 8. Infrastructure Investment Analysis of the environmental strategies and policies being applied in Public and private sector investment in areas such as water supply, roads island jurisdictions together with latest climate change impacts and and internal transport, waste management, social housing as well as challenges facing vulnerable communities. other project initiatives identified. 3. Government Income & Expenditure Trends 9. Law & Order and Civil Protection Review of the latest island government income and expenditure trends Security both in terms of crime levels and prevention and the protection including debt levels and capital expenditure allocations. Fiscal policies of island citizens against natural and human generated disasters also addressed and benchmarked. considered and assessed economically and socially. 4. Population, Migration and Demographic Trends 10. Health and Wellbeing Changing demographic profiles within island communities around Pressures on the provision of on-island versus off-island health and the world including the concerns over an ageing population and the welfare provision fully addressed and how these impact on government increasing impact of migration. expenditure levels and funding now and in the future. 5. Economic Sector Performance & Lifecycle 11. Energy Generation Performance assessment undertaken of the primary island economic Energy generation and security of supply identified as a key element in sectors such as tourism, finance and light industry as well as the long term planning primarily because of the capital outlay and possible emerging sectors within the digital economy. alternative sources such as tidal and solar power. 6. Employment 12. Air and Sea Transport Issues relating to employment levels and trends analysed by economic External air and sea connections highlighted as one of the primary sector. Unemployment concerns and the policies and actions in place to areas for constant review due to the importance of lifeline routes to key reduce current levels highlighted. destinations both for business and resident travel. relevant interestsṣample to your specific Monitors can either be purchased as a subscription for the full series, individually, or as a package of two or more Monitors
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