Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu PA U.S. Senate Race: Toomey Leads Sestak by 9 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters *** Complete Tables for Poll Appended *** For Immediate Release: Monday, October 4, 2010 Contact: Lee M. Miringoff Barbara L. Carvalho Mary E. Azzoli Marist College 845.575.5050 This McClatchy-Marist Poll Reports: U.S. Senate candidate Joe Sestak may have defeated Senator Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania s Democratic primary, but what are his odds of beating Republican candidate Pat Toomey in November s general election? In this McClatchy-Marist Poll of Pennsylvania, Toomey receives the support of a majority of likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate -- 51% -- while Sestak garners 42%. One percent is voting for someone else, and 6% are undecided. There is a partisan divide among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 81% of Democratic voters plan to support Sestak while 12% back Toomey. Not surprisingly, 91% of Republicans are pulling for Toomey while 7% support Sestak. Among likely independent voters, Toomey has a 12 percentage point lead. He takes half of these voters -- 50% -- to Sestak s 38%. Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, the numbers are much closer. Toomey receives 40% of the vote to Sestak s 38%. One percent report they are voting for someone else, and 21% are undecided. Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate If November's election for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: Joe Sestak, the Democratic candidate Complete tables appended for likely voters and registered voters. Pat Toomey, the Republican candidate Other Undecided Row % Row % Row % Row % Pennsylvania Likely Voters with Leaners 42% 51% 1% 6% Party ID Democrat 81% 12% <1% 6% Republican 7% 91% <1% 2% Independent 38% 50% 2% 11% Pennsylvania Registered Voters 38% 40% 1% 21% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters N=817 MOE +/- 3.5%. Pennsylvania Likely Voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Firm Backing for Toomey and Sestak 70% of likely voters in Pennsylvania strongly support their choice of candidate. 21% somewhat support him while 6% might vote differently on Election Day. 3% are unsure. Toomey and Sestak receive similar levels of support among their backers. 71% of likely voters pulling for Toomey firmly back him. 68% of likely voters who support Sestak say the same. Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate Candidates' Strength of Support Would you say that you strongly support <U.S. Senate candidate> somewhat support him, or do you think that you might vote differently on election day? Strongly support Voting For Candidate or Against His Opponent? Somewhat support Might vote differently Unsure Row % Row % Row % Row % Pennsylvania Likely Voters 70% 21% 6% 3% Support for Joe Sestak 68% 23% 7% 3% Senate Pat Toomey 71% 21% 4% 3% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Likely Voters N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. More than six in ten likely voters in Pennsylvania -- 64% -- report they have chosen their candidate because they are for him. 29%, however, are voting for their choice of candidate because they are against his opponent. 7% are unsure. 69% of likely voters who back Sestak are voting for him while 63% of likely voters who support Toomey are casting their ballot for their candidate. Pennsylvania: Voting for U.S. Senate Candidate or Against Opponent Did you choose him because you are for him or because you are against the other candidate? For choice Against other candidate Unsure Row % Row % Row % Pennsylvania Likely Voters 64% 29% 7% Support for Joe Sestak 69% 25% 6% Senate Pat Toomey 63% 32% 5% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Likely Voters N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. Page 2 of 5
High Level of Enthusiasm Expressed by 38% of Registered Voters Nearly four in ten registered voters -- 38% -- report they are very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day. A greater proportion of Republican voters -- 51% -- than Democratic voters -- 36% -- express a high degree of enthusiasm about casting their ballot in November. 20% of independents share this level of enthusiasm. Registered voters in Pennsylvania are slightly more enthusiastic than are registered voters nationally. 33% of U.S. registered voters express a high level of enthusiasm. Pennsylvania: Enthusiasm to Vote 2010 Overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections in November? Very enthusiastic Enthusiastic Not very enthusiastic Not enthusiastic at all Row % Row % Row % Row % Pennsylvania Registered Voters 38% 40% 15% 7% Party ID Democrat 36% 44% 15% 5% Republican 51% 36% 10% 4% Independent 20% 42% 23% 15% Pennsylvania Likely Voters 57% 34% 7% 2% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters N=817 MOE +/- 3.5%. Pennsylvania Likely Voters N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%.Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. Page 3 of 5
Sestak with 46% Favorability Rating Toomey Favorability at 43% Among registered voters, 46% view Sestak favorably while about one-third -- 33% -- do not. 21% are unsure. Looking at Toomey s favorability, 43% of voters think well of him while 33% have a negative perception of him. 24% are unsure. Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate Candidates' Favorability In general, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of <U.S. Senate candidate>? Pennsylvania Registered Voters Pennsylvania Likely Voters Unsure- Favorable Unfavorable Never Heard Row % Row % Row % Joe Sestak 46% 33% 21% Pat Toomey 43% 33% 24% Joe Sestak 46% 39% 15% Pat Toomey 48% 34% 18% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters N=817 MOE +/- 3.5%. Pennsylvania Likely Voters N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%.Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. Registered Voters Divide About Obama Job Performance 48% of registered voters in Pennsylvania approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 46% disapprove. 6% are unsure. Page 4 of 5
The Future of the U.S. Economy: Pennsylvania Voters Divide 48% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say, when thinking about the U.S. economy, that the worst is behind us. However, 45% believe the worst is yet to come. 7% are unsure. Voters in Pennsylvania are more optimistic than are registered voters nationally. When asked the same question, 43% report the worst is over while 53% of voters nationwide say there is more bad news ahead for the U.S. economy. 4% are unsure. Pennsylvania: View of U.S. Economy When thinking about the U.S. economy, which statement comes closer to your view: The worst is yet to come The worst is behind us Unsure Row % Row % Row % Pennsylvania Registered Voters 45% 48% 7% Support for U.S. Joe Sestak 25% 71% 5% Senate Pat Toomey 62% 30% 8% Party Democrat 30% 64% 6% Registration Republican 62% 32% 7% Non-enrolled 45% 45% 10% Pennsylvania Likely Voters 46% 46% 8% October 4, 2010 Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters N=817 MOE +/- 3.5%. Pennsylvania Likely Voters N=468 MOE +/- 4.5%.Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. Page 5 of 5
Nature of the Sample: 817 Pennsylvania Registered Voters This survey of 817 Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted on September 26 th through September 28 th. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter turnout in statewide elections in each county. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. There are 468 likely voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.5 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
Marist Poll October 4, 2010 Pennsylvania Survey Tables