Modern Stateless Warfare

Modern Stateless Warfare

Also by Paul Brooker THE FACES OF FRATERNALISM Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan DEFIANT DICTATORSHIPS Communist and Middle-Eastern Dictatorships in a Democratic Age LEADERSHIP IN DEMOCRACY From Adaptive Response to Entrepreneurial Initiative NON-DEMOCRATIC REGIMES Theory, Government and Politics TWENTIETH-CENTURY DICTATORSHIPS The Ideological One-Party States

Modern Stateless Warfare Paul Brooker

Paul Brooker 2010 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-21142-1 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2010 PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN 978-1-349-30318-2 ISBN 978-0-230-27476-1 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9780230274761 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10

Contents List of Tables vii Introduction 1 Part I Insurgent Stateless Warfare 9 Chapter 1 Historical Background 11 Becoming modern guerrilla warfare 12 The second, maoist phase of modernisation 18 The third-phase modernisation of insurgent stateless warfare 26 Chapter 2 The Types and Modes of Insurgency 34 The expeller, revolutionary and separatist types of insurgency 34 The guerrilla and terrorist modes of insurgency 37 Distinguishing insurgency from other non-state warfare 43 Chapter 3 Insurgent Strategies 50 Preparing for battle the maoist model 51 An outdated strategy 62 Pressuring politically through military hurt 67 The political calculus of the pressure strategy 71 Chapter 4 Terroristic Warfare and Strategies 77 Total war and attacking the civilian home front 78 Similarities with the terrorist mode of insurgency 82 Propaganda and provocation typically terrorist strategies 88 Chapter 5 Comparisons with Criminality 100 Comparisons with bandits and gangsters 101 Hybrid bands 114 The forensic calculus 117 Part II The Calculus of Insurgency: Motive, 125 Means and Opportunity Chapter 6 The Motives of Insurgency 127 The problems of motive 128 Collective-action problems 132 The variety and mixture of motives 136 v

vi Contents Chapter 7 The Means of Insurgency 143 Motivation as capability 144 Insurgents military capability 146 Leadership awareness and adaptability 152 Chapter 8 Opportunity and Environments 156 The physical environment rural and urban 158 The political and military environments 164 Operational zones 171 Support bases 175 Chapter 9 The Social-Political Environment 180 Rebels with a cause 182 Ethnic/sectarian support 194 Urban and insurrectionary support 198 Conclusion 202 Summing up 202 The shape of things to come 205 What is likely to be done? 210 Notes 213 Bibliography 238 Index 248

List of Tables 1.1 Modernising Insurgent Stateless Warfare 17 1.2 Analysing Insurgent Stateless Warfare 27 2.1 Insurgency: Types, Versions and Bands 37 2.2 Targets of Guerrilla and Terrorist Modes of Operation 39 2.3 Types of War 45 5.1 The Insurgency Calculus 122 6.1 Motivation 131 7.1 Insurgent Leaders Situational Awareness Three Types 153 of Assessment 8.1 Insurgents Four Operational Zones: O1 to O4 173 8.2 The Social Support Base 178 9.1 Converting Potential into Actual Political Support 184 vii