2010/SOM1/HRDWG/045rev1 Agenda Item: Plenary 4-3 Asia Pacific Mega Trends Purpose: Information Submitted by: United States 32 nd Human Resources Development Working Group Meeting Hiroshima, Japan 24-28 February 2010
Asia-Pacific Mega Trends Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center Connecting Dots: Three Mega-Disasters December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead 1
Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia Kashmir EURASIA PLATE Kathmandu Chengdu INDIA PLATE Aceh Human Change in 40 Years 2
Certainties/Uncertainties Near Certainties: The rise of Asia Demographic changes Pressures on resources and the environment New health challenges Uncertainties: Sustainable development? Social and political evolution International relations Asia-Pacific role in addressing global issues The Rise/Re-rise of Asia Share of Gross World Product (PPP) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other US Other Other US Europe US Asia Europe Asia Europe Asia Other Other Other US Europe Asia US Europe Asia US Europe Asia 1820 1870 1913 1970 1990 2006 From World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D., by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia 3
Labor Productivity Growth 1993-2003 WORLD: 10.9 percent Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent International Labor Organization Growth of Tertiary Enrollment (Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2005) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 India Source: World Bank Indonesia China Malaysia Philippines Thailand Japan Korea USA 4
Education: Percent by Gender of Tertiary Age Population in Tertiary Institutions, 2004 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 India Indonesia China Philippines Hong Kong Thailand Japan Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics Female Male Demographic Tectonics 5
China s s Population in Comparative Perspective 7 6 Fertility Decline Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female 5 4 3 2 1 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 0 East Asia Southeast Asia South & Central Asia East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10. 6
Flight from Marriage: (Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39) 39) 14 25 12 10 8 6 20 15 10 4 2 0 1970 1990 2000 Indonesia S. Korea Thailand Japan 5 0 1970 1990 2000 Jakarta Seoul Hong Kong Bangkok Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The Flight from Marriage in South-East and East Asia Asia Population 3000 People (millions) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 East Asia S.E. Asia South and Central Asia 0 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Year East-West Center, Future of Population E 7
Composition of Population (Japan) Growth of Elderly Percent of Population Over Age 75 India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand China 2000 2050 S. Korea Singapore Japan 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002 8
Percent of Total Population Urban 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Chile Aus NZ Jp Indo China VN 2005 2015 Source: World Bank East Asian Urban Areas (Mega- cities) over 10 million 1950 Tokyo, 11.3 million 1975 Tokyo, 26.3 million Osaka, 14.0 million Seoul, 12.0 million Shanghai, 11.4 million 2008 estimate Tokyo, 34.4 million Jakarta, 21.8 million Seoul, 20.0 million Manila, 19.6 million Osaka, 17.3 million Shanghai, 14.5 million Beijing, 12.8 million Guangzhou, 11.8 million Shenzhen, 11.7 million Bangkok, 10.8 million Wikipedia Sources, figures vary 9
Comparative GDP, 2008 (PPP estimates) Tokyo, $1,479 billion South Korea, $1,342 billion Canada, $1,303 billion Australia, $795 billion Seoul, $291 billion Vietnam, $240 billion Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers, Countries, IMF Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega- cities Shanghai Beijing Seoul Osaka Tokyo yo Kolkata Manila Jakarta Source: Pacific Disaster Pacific Disaster Center Center 10
Coastal Flooding Resource Pressures 11
Regional Petroleum Deficits Millions of Barrels per day 30 25 20 15 10 Europe N. America Asia-Pacific 5 0 1973 2001 2020 Congressional Research Service Growth in Energy Use with Income 1980 to 2002 12
China s s Share of... World Population: 20.1 percent Coal Reserves: 12.6 percent Oil Reserves: 1.3 percent Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3 percent Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007 Global Carbon Emissions Map from The Guardian Datablog 13
Lost of Tropical Forests William F. Laurence, Forest Destruction in Tropical Asia Annual Renewable Fresh Water Supply Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, One World, One Well 14
Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006 Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption China, 1980-2007 60 50 40 30 20 10 20 kg 54 kg 0 1980 2007 Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008 Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg 15
Health Tectonics Traditional Health Risks (down) New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required) Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up) Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault Line? Spanish Flu Pneumonia: 1919 Asian Flu: 1967 Bird Flu (Hong Kong): 1997 SARS: 2003 Avian Flu: 2004-16
Poultry Density Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series 11-Year Year-Old Children s s Fitness Japan 9.4 9.2 Seconds to Run 50 Meters Boys Girls 35 Average Soft-Ball Throw (Meters) 9 8.8 8.6 30 25 8.4 8.2 1987 2006 20 15 1987 2006 Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007 17
Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030 2030 80 70 60 151% increase 148% increase Millions people 50 40 30 104% 2000 2030 20 10 0 India China Other Asia Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%. The Uncertainties Sustainable development - Economic models - Resource impacts Domestic evolution - Social disparities - Political dynamics International relations Asia-Pacific in global leadership 18
Some Implications Specialized education and training in skills relating to the clear-cut cut trends Broader education for publics about critical issues and implications Cross-cultural and leadership skills 19