5 China and Taiwan Does China s growing economic and military strength pose a threat to the U.S.? What can Americans do about human-rights abuses in China? How should Washington respond to rising tensions between China and Taiwan? China Population: 1.3 billion Basic Facts Gross Domestic Product: $4.4 trillion. GDP per capita: $3,600 U.S. balance of trade with China: $68.7 billion trade deficit Taiwan Population: 22 million Gross Domestic Product: $362 billion. GDP per capita: $16,500 61
David Lada KAZAKHSTAN KYRG. TAJIKISTAN PAKISTAN INDIA NEPAL BHUTAN BANGLADESH MYANMAR MONGOLIA CHINA VIETNAM LAOS RUSSIA Beijing N. KOREA Sea of Japan S. KOREA JAPAN Yellow Sea Shanghai East China Sea Taipei Taiwan Pacific Ocean Hong Kong South China Sea 0 Miles 500 62 China and Taiwan
Background It is just over half a century since the People s Liberation Army under Mao Zedong marched into Shanghai on the heels of Chiang Kai-shek s fleeing Nationalist troops. The Communist victory in October 1949 ended decades of strife brought on by battling warlords, Japanese invaders and an intermittent civil war that had bedeviled the country since its last emperor was deposed in 1911. Now, with their ideological enemies holed up on the island of Taiwan or crammed into the tiny British colony of Hong Kong, the Communists were free to govern as they saw fit. Under Chairman Mao, the country embarked on the Great Leap Forward, a massive effort to alter the ancient agrarian way of life that was the lot of most Chinese. The Communists collectivized farms and brought industry under state ownership. Food production plunged, leading to famines that killed 20 million people. This, in turn, brought on the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s, Mao s effort to root out the capitalist roaders whom he accused of undermining communism and betraying the goals of the revolution. Among those purged was Deng Xiaoping, the party general secretary, who escaped execution but was shunted to the sidelines along with other leaders who believed that Mao s efforts were too radical. During most of Mao s reign, China isolated itself from much of the world. But by the time of his death in 1976, China had begun, cautiously, to look outward again. In 1972, President Richard M. Nixon visited China, opening the way to renewing the diplomatic relations that had been cut when the Communists took power. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter rescinded Washington s formal recognition of the Republic of China on Taiwan as China s legal government and formally recognized the People s Republic of China, over the angry objections of the Chinese Nationalists and conservatives in the U.S. Although Washington main- China and Taiwan 63
tained ties with Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, opponents of the move charged that America was betraying an ally to pursue an unlikely peace with a bitter ideological foe. In 1977, Deng came to power. In an effort to develop a market-based economy, he allowed many farmers to work their own land, loosened state controls on industry and encouraged foreign investment. Economic liberalization, however, was not accompanied by corresponding political freedom. In April 1989, rising pressure for political reform and greater democracy fueled student demonstrations in Beijing s Tiananmen Square. As the protests spread to other cities, the government declared martial law. On June 3 and 4, troops opened fired on the Tiananmen demonstrators, killing hundreds. A nationwide crackdown followed. The U.S. and other nations responded with trade sanctions and other measures. During the 1990s China s relations with the U.S. gradually improved as Deng pressed his efforts to integrate China into the world economy, seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), the international trade group that was formed in 1995 as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Deng died in 1997 and was succeeded by China s current president, Jiang Zemin, who came to power amid a new crackdown on dissent. He has renewed China s push for entry into the WTO, which Beijing sees as essential to attracting the foreign capital that China needs to modernize its industry and expand its economy. Today, China is Communist in name only. Under Jiang, the push to sell off unprofitable state industries and encourage market reforms has accelerated. America s trade deficit with China is expected to exceed $60 billion this year. Direct foreign investment in China has soared. It reached $45 billion in 1998, dipped to $40 billion in 1999 in the trough of the Asian financial crises and currently appears to be rising again. Now, with 64 China and Taiwan
China s entry into the WTO all but assured, foreign investment is likely to rise further, and some experts predict that by the end of the decade, China will outstrip Japan to become the world s second-largest economy, after the U.S. For now, though, there are still problems. In some parts of the country, unemployment is as high as 30%, and in the last two years the government has had to spend billions to prop up the economy. While many have profited handsomely from the economic reforms, many others have been left behind, fleeing from the countryside to the city in search of work. Meanwhile, political repression continues. Public criticism of the Communist party is not permitted. Political dissidents are jailed. Nor will Beijing tolerate seemingly nonpolitical movements, such as the Falun Gong, a cult that has gained widespread popularity for its emphasis on physical exercise as a means to mental and spiritual health. China s constitution affirms religious tolerance, but only officially recognized religious organizations are actually allowed to hold observances, and such groups are limited. Roman Catholics, for example, are not permitted to practice their faith unless they join the Patriotic Catholic Church, which is not recognized by the Vatican. China s heavy-handed rule in Tibet and its repression of the Uygar Muslim minority in the northwest have been condemned by international human-rights groups. So have Beijing s efforts to limit population growth through the goal of allowing only one child per family, which has led to forced abortions a policy the government officially opposes, attributing such cases to overzealous local officials striving to reach population targets. Taiwan and China Taiwan, a province of imperial China, was occupied by Japan in 1895 following China s defeat in the Sino- Japanese war. It reverted to Chinese rule at the end of World War II and came under the control of Chiang Kaishek after some 2 million Nationalist troops, officials and China and Taiwan 65
their families fled to the island in the wake of the Communist victory. For the next 35 years, Chiang Kai-shek and then his son, Chiang Ching-kuo, held firm control of the island, through the Nationalist party, or Kuomintang. During the long years of the cold war, Taiwan grew prosperous under land-reform programs and foreign investment from the U.S., Japan and other nations. In 1987, a process of political liberalization began as Chiang Ching-kuo ended martial law. When he died in January 1988, Lee Teng-hui, a native Taiwanese, became president and began increasing informal economic ties with the mainland. In 1996, Lee became the first Taiwanese leader to be popularly elected. Four years later, in May 2000, Taiwan saw the peaceful transfer of government as Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic-Progressive party was inaugurated as president, ending 50 years of Nationalist party rule. This was, according to some experts, probably the first peaceful transition of power from one political party to another in all of Chinese history. Beijing considers Taiwan to be a province of China territory stolen from the motherland during the years when China was ravaged by colonial powers. China views Taiwan in much the same way that it saw Hong Kong, a former British colony that reverted to Chinese rule in 1997, and so regards the eventual reincorporation of Taiwan under Chinese rule as an issue of national pride. In practice, Taiwan is a sovereign state, but in many respects it is not quite treated as one. It has the world s 14th-largest economy and holds one of the world s largest foreign-exchange reserves more than $100 billion in 1999 but it does not have a seat in the UN. Although the U.S. is Taiwan s largest trading partner two-way trade in 1998 totaled $51 billion senior American officials do not visit Taipei in order to avoid offending Beijing. Only 28 nations formally recognize Taiwan, and at Chen s inauguration in May, only four heads of state were listed as attending the ceremony, 66 China and Taiwan
according to The New York Times. Beijing has warned Taipei that any attempt to declare independence would be cause for war. During the 1996 election campaign, as Taiwanese politicians stepped up calls for nationhood, China conducted missile tests and military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. Washington responded by sending two aircraft-carrier battle groups to the area to show support for Taipei. Since then, Beijing has built up short-range missile batteries along the coast. In the past year China has purchased a guided-missile destroyer and four submarines from Russia to beef up its naval forces. Tensions rose this winter when China issued a policy paper announcing that it could not wait indefinitely for Taiwan to reunite with the mainland and would consider military action if the issue was not resolved. The campaign by and election of Chen, a longtime independence advocate, seemed to fan the flames, heightening fears in Taiwan and elsewhere of an eventual military showdown. Chen and his advisers, however, have been more Schwadron/Cartoonists & Writers Syndicate/cartoonweb.com China and Taiwan 67
sanguine and say they hope to engage China in a friendly dialogue. In his inauguration speech, Chen sought to cool tensions. He pledged that, as long as Beijing did not use military force against Taiwan, he would not declare independence. But he did not acquiesce to Beijing s demand that Taiwan accept that there is only one China, which the Communists insist is a prerequisite to any formal talks. Instead, Chen has emphasized a desire for improved trade ties. During his first days in office, he said he hoped to negotiate an end to the ban on direct trade, shipping and postal links all of which is now done through Hong Kong. Beijing has long sought to develop the three links as a means to bring Taiwan further into its orbit. For their part, Taiwanese businessmen have invested heavily in China and stand to gain from its opening markets. Taiwan question and the Chinese military The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act calls for the U.S. to provide the means for Taiwan to defend itself. Taiwan s armed forces number approximately 430,000 troops, and reserves total nearly 3.9 million, both largely equipped by the U.S. However, in recent years, Taiwan has sought arms from other Western nations. Earlier this year, the Clinton Administration proposed an arms-sales package to Taiwan that included an upgraded missile system, but did not include several destroyers equipped with Aegis radar systems to help deter a missile attack. The package was criticized by Republicans as insufficient. In May, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which would increase American training of Taiwanese forces and provide for more military coordination between the two allies. The bill is now awaiting action in the Senate. If the act passes, President Clinton, who has sought to downplay military tensions 68 China and Taiwan
in the region, has said he would veto it. Although China maintains one of the largest standing armies in the world, few dispute that it remains militarily second-rate. Nevertheless, in recent years it has worked steadily to modernize, upgrading its navy and air forces and turning itself into a regional power to be reckoned with. Some experts warn that by the end of the decade China could pose a grave potential threat to world peace and note that elements within Beijing s leadership have expansionist tendencies. As evidence, they point to the alleged theft of American nuclear secrets by Chinese agents in the U.S. and the sale of advanced weapons technology by China to Pakistan a move that doubtlessly helped Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons last year, fueling its arms race with India. Potentially, these experts say, China could pose the same threat to the U.S. that the Soviet Union did during the cold war. Others scoff at this view. Far from posing a Sovietlike threat, these experts say, China is more like India, a nuclear power that can barely feed itself, with a large population and an elementary economic market that has a long way to go before it can challenge the U.S. They cite military analysts who say that it will take years of training before China can handle sophisticated weapons in an actual conflict. In this view, even China s oft-cited threat to Taiwan is overstated. China, which has the capacity to move only about 20,000 troops at a time, has had little training or preparation for large-scale airborne and amphibious assaults. One U.S. naval officer said that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a million-man swim. Administration Policy In recent years, America s view of China has been characterized by a powerful conflict between a desire to increase trade ties and a revulsion at dealing with a state that abuses its own people. This conflict has created a political impasse in the U.S. between those who advo- China and Taiwan 69
cate what President George Bush called a policy of engagement and those who see China as a threat that must be contained. Advocates of engagement argue that working to increase trade and open China to the rest of the world will fuel the forces of freedom and democracy. Opponents say that engagement opens America to manipulation by a hostile and repressive state, gives Beijing no incentive to reform and makes the U.S. complicitous in the repression of hundreds of millions of people. Every year since 1979, the U.S. conflict over China relations has been thrown into sharp relief when Congress met to consider extending most-favored-nation (MFN) trade status to China for another year. The term MFN was in itself misleading. It simply allowed China the same privileges that the U.S. grants to roughly 160 other nations including many with human-rights records as poor as China s. Nevertheless, the annual vote became a backdrop for debating Washington s policy toward the largest nation in the world. During the 1992 election campaign, the Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton, attacked Bush for supporting MFN and promoting greater business ties with China, criticizing his opponent for doing business as usual with those who murdered freedom in Tiananmen Square. For his part, Clinton pledged to make the annual approval of MFN dependent upon improvements in Beijing s human-rights record. But as President, Clinton reversed his position. He stepped up diplomacy with President Jiang and pushed for China s entry into the WTO. By the last year of his second term, Clinton had come to regard the opening of China as perhaps his greatest foreign policy achievement and saw approval of a measure to grant China permanent normal trade relations with the U.S. as a key means to that goal. The debate over China s trade status pitted business against labor unions, set Clinton at odds with many in his own party, and made for strange political bedfel- 70 China and Taiwan
lows. Nevertheless, on May 24, the House approved normal trade relations by a 237 to 197 vote, with three quarters of the Republicans and one third of the Democrats voting in favor. The margin was higher than expected, with support for the bill boosted by amendments that would create a panel to monitor human rights in China and provisions that would guard against a surge of Chinese imports. The measure is widely expected to become law. On May 19, 2000, China gained the support of the European Community for its entry into the trade organization. The congressional vote to normalize trade is expected to further China s drive toward WTO membership. Policy Options 1. Constructive engagement p a. Given China s huge population and booming economy, the U.S. has no choice but to expand trade with China and to support its membership in the World Trade Organization. or p b. Despite reforms, China still uses slave labor and flaunts environmental and workplace health and safety standards. Because of this, opening trade with China will only hurt workers in the U.S. and other countries with better-paid and better-protected labor forces. 2. Human rights p a. The best way to improve the lot of the Chinese is for the rest of the world to expand its economic and political relations with China. Any sanctions are likely to be counterproductive, as the Chinese are very resistant to any kind of foreign interference in their affairs. or p b. Despite economic reforms, China is still a brutal China and Taiwan 71
dictatorship. The only way the rest of the world can try to get Beijing to change its ways is to withhold the world trade that China so desperately needs. 3. U.S. support for Taiwan p p a. The U.S. should provide improved military equipment, including missile defense, and if need be, military support to Taiwan to ensure that China does not try to force the island into reunification. or b. The Chinese have little to gain by actually going to war over Taiwan. The U.S. should recognize this and engage in mature diplomacy rather than making threats and giving Taiwan more and more advanced military equipment. Select Bibliography China. Current History, Sept. 1999. Entire issue dedicated to China, examining the road from communism to capitalism. Copper, John Franklin, Taiwan: Nation-State or Province? Boulder, CO, Westview Press, 1999. 272 pp. A thorough introduction to Taiwan, examining its unique role in global politics and prospects for the future. Goldstein, Steven M., China and the U.S.: What Priorities in a Changing Relationship? Great Decisions 1998, pp. 21 30. New York, Foreign Policy Association, 1998. Discusses the Sino-U.S. relationship and the implications for U.S. policy of the potentially next superpower. Gong, Gerrit W., ed., Taiwan Strait Dilemmas: China- Taiwan-U.S. Policies in the New Century. Washington, DC, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2000. 174 pp. An examination of the political, social, economic and military problems in the volatile Taiwan Strait region and the sensitive relationship of the three nations. 72 China and Taiwan
Survey: China. The Economist, Apr. 8, 2000. Special Survey section focuses on the future prospects for China. Tyler, Patrick, The (Ab)normalization of U.S.-China Relations. Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 1999, pp. 93 122. An examination of U.S.-China relations. Select Resources THE ASIA FOUNDATION, 465 California St., 14th fl., San Francisco, CA 94104; (415) 982-4640; Fax (415) 392-8863. A private, nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that seeks to advance the mutual interests of the U.S. and the Asia-Pacific region. www.asiafoundation.org ASIASOURCE, 725 Park Ave., New York, NY 10021; (212) 288-6400; Fax (212) 517-8315. Important online information service from the Asia Society. Includes links to top news stories and latest commentary by topic, keyword, individual and country. www.asiasource.org THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS, 71 West 23rd St., Suite 1901, New York, NY 10010; (212) 645-9677; Fax (212) 645-1695. A public, nonprofit organization that encourages understanding of China and the U.S. among the citizens of both countries. Involved in exchange, educational and policy activities dealing with a wide range of issues concerning the People s Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. www.ncuscr.org China and Taiwan 73