Low fertility in Europe: Regional contrasts and policy responses Tomáš Sobotka Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Panel discussion on UNFPA's State of World Population Report 2018 (18 October 2018)
Background: new challenges of low fertility Low fertility perceived with mixed feelings + Reflection of efficient control over reproduction + Women s empowerment + Parental resources invested into health, wellbeing, skills and education of the (fewer) children - Worries about the consequences for societies and individuals: depopulation, accelerated aging, threat to national identity? - Loneliness and limited care later in life? Debates about the causes of low fertility: structural conditions, economic & labour market factors vs cultural / ideational changes, gender inequalities Policy reactions: the rise of pronatalism
Background: the diversity of low fertility Global scale: The disappearing distinction in fertility and fertility preferences between the middle income and the rich countries Countries & broader regions: Europe and the developed world The diversity of low fertility: The Great divergence in fertility (Billari 2018)? The instability of period fertility: rapid and unexpected changes in fertility levels in many countries after 2010 The continuity of a two-child family norm The long-term shift to a late parenthood and diverse family forms Diverse policy responses
The new fertility divide? A broad stabilisation in cohort fertility and childlessness in most countries (Myrskylä et al. 2013) Regional differentiation: Very low fertility in East Asia, Southern, Central and Eastern Europe McDonald (2006): cultural/regional divide in fertility between countries; the role of policies and gender inequalities
Period TFR (2010-15) and completed cohort fertility; women born 1974 Fertility rate (children per woman) 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 1.37 Total fertility rate (2010-15) Completed cohort fertility (women born 1974) 1.64 1.57 1.50 1.53 1.61 1.58 1.42 1.49 1.44 1.95 1.91 1.91 1.85 1.85 2.17 1.91 2.02
Period fertility rates: the end of the Great divide? 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 Southern Europe Western Europe Germany, Austria, Switzerland Nordic countries Central-Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Period TFR, European regions, US and Korea, 1980-2016 or 2017 1.50 Eastern Europe EU-28 1.25 1.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 United States Republic of Korea Source: UNFPA SWOP 2018; European Demographic Datasheet 2018
Contrasting period fertility trends in selected countries,1980-2017 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 Belgium Norway Finland Iceland Sweden EU UK Ireland 1.00 Source: Human Fertility Database, Council of Europe 2006, Eurostat, national statistical offices
Contrasting period fertility trends in selected countries,1980-2017 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 Belgium Norway Finland Iceland Sweden EU UK Ireland 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 Russia Czechia Hungary EU Germany Austria 1.00 1.00 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Human Fertility Database, Council of Europe 2006, Eurostat, national statistical offices
Instability in period fertility trends Modern contraception allows couples to react to changing period conditions, economic and labour market trends, family policies, expanding education and other factors Planned or intended births can be to some extent flexibly postponed, advanced or given up Cohort fertility shows much more stability
What explains the unexpected fertility declines? Was the decline in TFR driven mainly by the shift in fertility timing? A renewed postponement of childbearing: continuing trend postrecession Fertility declines especially strong among young women below age 25 Fertility decline also among migrant women Later onset of dating and sexual activity? (Twenge 2017 for the US)
The continuing postponement of first births Mean age at first birth 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 United States Netherlands Austria Russia Spain Czechia Mean age at first birth, selected European countries, South Korea and the US, 1970-2016 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Republic of Korea Source: UNFPA SWOP 2018; European Demographic Datasheet 2018
Early childbearing out of fashion 60 50 40 30 20 10 17 6 49 25 25 26 14 10 20 8 49 26 27 16 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-2005 2010 2015 Births per 1,000 women aged 15-19, 1980-2015 0 Source: UNFPA SWOP 2018; European Demographic Datasheet 2018
Stability in fertility ideals and preferences Ideal family size in Europe: mean % distribution across analysed countries Source: Sobotka, T. and E. Beaujouan. 2014. Two Is best? The persistence of a two child family ideal in Europe. Population and Development Review, 40(3), pp.391-419.
Source: State of the World Population 2018, Figure 32 Family size distribution, women born 1974 (in %)
Shifting childbearing away from marriage: contrasting trends 60 50 40 European Union United States Russia Percentage of births outside marriage 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Japan France Spain Sweden Source: UNFPA SWOP 2018;
Policy concerns: the global rise of pronatalism Number of countries that aim to increase their fertility rate, out of 50 developed low-fertility countries globally 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 UN World Population Policies Database, 1976-2015
Key family policy trends Better paid and more flexible parental leave (Czechia, Austria, Germany, Estonia) Provision of paternal leave (short) and bonus daddy months during parental leave (Austria) Expansion of public childcare (Germany) Financial incentives, especially for larger families (maternal capital in Russia, Poland, Hungary) Tax deductions Support to part-time work and flexible working conditions (Netherlands, Germany) Widening provision of assisted reproduction
Diversity in family policy support and spending (public spending in % of GDP) 4.50 4.00 Cash Services Tax breaks 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 France Netherlands United Kingdom Sweden Germany Spain Czechia United States OECD Family Policy Database
Family policy checklist A need for comprehensive, compatible, and stable policies Range of support for parents important: Allowing different options to combine work, leisure, childbearing Respect for reproductive rights (non-coercive policies) and reflecting diversity in individual preferences Reflecting diversity in family forms Broader concept of reproductive rights includes policies supporting men and women in their decision to have kids Wider context matters: role of economic uncertainty, labour market stability, gender inequality, housing and resources