Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagleton.rutgers.edu eagleton@rci.rutgers.edu 732-932-9384 Fax: 732-932-6778 WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2013 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Professor David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134, 732-932-9384, ext. 285, or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Visit http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the on Twitter @EagletonPoll or Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll. MOST NEW JERSEYANS SUPPORT CHRISTIE S APPEARANCE IN STORM ADS BUT THINK COMMERCIALS CREATORS CHOSEN FOR POLITICAL REASONS NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. While state Sen. Barbara Buono continues to criticize Gov. Chris Christie s involvement with New Jersey s Stronger than the Storm ad campaign, 54 percent of registered voters side with the incumbent, according to a new. The majority say Christie s appearance in the commercials was focused on promoting confidence in the shore s recovery, while 34 percent say the appearances were mostly about gaining publicity for his re-election campaign. Another 11 percent are unsure. Views are more mixed over the appropriateness of the choice of MWW, the company the state used to create the ad campaign. Democrats criticized the firm in recent months for its supposed close ties to Christie, and a price tag reportedly $2 million higher than its competitors. By a 2 to 1 margin, voters believe MWW was chosen primarily for political reasons. A noteworthy 37 percent are uncertain about where why the firm was chosen. While voters see Christie s appearance as part of his job to promote the state s recovery, many are cynical about why MWW was chosen, said David Redlawsk, director of the and professor of political science at Rutgers University. We specifically tested Senator Buono s criticism to see if it resonates, finding that many view the award of the project as political. But that perspective does not change the positive view of the governor s role in the ad campaign. The Stronger than the Storm campaign generated high levels of awareness, as 80 percent of voters saw or heard the ads promoting Jersey shore tourism this summer. Results are from a poll of 925 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Sept 3-9. The subsample of 814 registered voters reported on here has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Partisanship for sure at the shore While a majority of respondents approve of Christie s role in the ads, the level of support varies, with those typically in Christie s corner more favorable. More than 70 percent of those planning to vote for Christie support his appearance in the ads. Just over a quarter of Buono voters feel the same. Republicans are the strongest backers on the issue, at 73 percent compared to 56 percent of 1
independents. Democrats are evenly split 44 percent support Christie s appearance, but 43 percent think it is about personal publicity. Thirty-three percent of independents and 17 percent of Republicans view the campaign as mostly about publicity for the governor. Personal experience with Hurricane Sandy and awareness of the ads also affect opinion about Christie s starring role. Those personally affected by the super storm are slightly more likely to say Christie was promoting recovery, 58 percent versus 53 percent of those not affected. Respondents from the hardest hit parts of the state agree more strongly than others that Christie s appearance was nonpolitical more than 70 percent from the shore and 59 percent from northwestern exurban counties. Those who actually have seen or heard the commercials support Christie s role as the shore recovery spokesperson by a nearly 2 to 1 margin 60 percent to the 33 percent who think he appeared primarily for re-election publicity. Those who have not seen the ads are much more split: 35 percent side with Christie, 39 percent side with Buono s criticism and 26 percent are uncertain. Seeing the ads clearly made voters think of Christie as promoting recovery, something that we all expect a governor to do, said Redlawsk. For those who did not see the ads, there is a much more willingness to simply see this as just another part of Christie s re-election campaign. Voters assume politics in choice of campaign s creators Voters are more likely to side with Democrats when it comes to the controversy about MWW s selection. Even Christie voters are divided, with 34 percent saying the company was the best choice for the job, 27 percent believing the choice as political and another 39 percent are unsure. Those voting for Buono are more united in their belief that politics was at play: 66 percent call the choice of MWW politics, and 28 percent are unsure. Only 6 percent believe the company was the best choice. Aside from Christie voters, the partisan divide is strong. But Republicans are more likely to express uncertainty than to support MWW. Thirty percent say the pick was for political reasons, while another 34 percent support the choice, and 37 percent are unsure. A plurality of Democrats and independents feels political motives were behind the selection, though over a third of each group remains uncertain. Just 14 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of independents support the choice as fair and square. Even those who have seen or heard the ads are most likely to feel that the selection was political 42 percent of viewers compared to 22 percent who support MWW. Thirty-six percent are uncertain. Those personally affected by Sandy are just as likely as those not affected to believe the company was chosen based on politics instead of who was best for the job. Of course, voters have relatively little information on this issue, noted Redlawsk. Thus, for the most part, the responses of those opposed to Christie are not surprising. What is surprising is that the governor s supporters are more divided, suggesting that cynicism about the decisions politicians make exists even when the decision is made by your own team. 2
Stronger than the storm widely viewed Eighty percent of New Jersey voters saw or heard the state s Stronger than the Storm advertising campaign and only 18 percent have not. Shore residents (85 percent) and exurbanites (88 percent) are especially familiar with it, though about three-quarters of voters in every other region encountered the ads as well. ### QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3
Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of September 25, 2013 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters unless otherwise indicated; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. On another topic, did you see or hear any of the Stronger than the Storm ads promoting Jersey shore tourism this past summer season? Yes 80% No 18% Don't know 3% Unwgt N= 811 Yes 77% 81% 82% 80% 81% 79% 78% 81% 85% 67% 77% 84% 73% No 20% 17% 15% 18% 17% 17% 19% 16% 12% 31% 22% 14% 22% Don't know 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 5% Unwgt N= 307 310 173 210 401 180 361 450 604 183 119 416 276 Yes 68% 83% 79% 95% 70% 73% 86% 88% No 27% 16% 20% 5% 24% 23% 13% 11% Don't know 5% 1% 1% 0% 6% 4% 1% 1% Unwgt N= 169 241 116 98 163 207 237 197 Yes 73% 78% 88% 75% 85% No 23% 20% 11% 21% 11% Don't know 4% 2% 1% 4% 4% Unwgt N= 102 253 156 165 135 Q. Some debate has arisen over Governor Christie s appearance in the "Stronger than the Storm" ads. Some say Christie s appearance was about promoting confidence in the shore s recovery. Others say it was more about giving Christie publicity for his election campaign. What do you think? Was Governor Christie s appearance more about promoting recovery, or was it more about gaining publicity? Christie Favorability Christie v Buono See/Hear Ads Affected by Sandy Fav Unfav Christie Buono Yes No Yes No Promoting recovery 54% 70% 27% 74% 26% 60% 35% 58% 53% Gaining publicity 34% 19% 63% 16% 62% 33% 39% 35% 34% Don't know 11% 11% 10% 10% 12% 7% 26% 8% 13% Unwgt N= 802 483 258 428 256 647 129 351 443 4
Promoting recovery 44% 56% 73% 40% 59% 66% 56% 53% 58% 50% 54% 58% 48% Gaining publicity 43% 32% 17% 51% 28% 26% 35% 33% 33% 36% 28% 34% 41% Don't know 13% 11% 10% 9% 13% 9% 9% 13% 9% 15% 18% 8% 11% Unwgt N= 304 307 171 209 396 180 354 448 598 180 117 412 273 Promoting recovery 52% 48% 59% 49% 72% Gaining publicity 35% 37% 33% 40% 20% Don't know 13% 15% 7% 11% 8% Unwgt N= 100 252 155 161 134 Q. The ad s cost and choice of companies to produce it are also controversial. Some say the company that made the ads was chosen because of close ties to Christie. It charged $2 million more than another company planned to charge. Others say the chosen company had a better proposal and could quickly produce the ad. What do you think? Was the selection of the ad company done primarily for political reasons, or was it simply the best choice to do the ad? Christie Favorability Christie v Buono See/Hear Ads Affected by Sandy Fav Unfav Christie Buono Yes No Yes No Political reasons 42% 28% 65% 27% 66% 42% 41% 41% 43% Best choice 21% 31% 6% 34% 6% 22% 18% 22% 20% Don't know 37% 41% 29% 39% 28% 36% 40% 37% 37% Unwgt N= 798 482 257 429 254 642 130 347 443 Promoting recovery 50% 56% 53% 68% 54% 53% 59% 50% Gaining publicity 36% 32% 37% 28% 33% 34% 29% 43% Don't know 14% 12% 9% 4% 14% 14% 11% 7% Unwgt N= 166 240 114 98 160 205 234 196 Political reasons 48% 40% 30% 53% 39% 33% 43% 40% 40% 45% 38% 42% 44% Best choice 14% 23% 34% 15% 22% 30% 22% 20% 23% 17% 22% 22% 20% Don't know 38% 37% 37% 32% 39% 36% 34% 40% 37% 37% 40% 36% 36% Unwgt N= 302 305 172 206 395 178 351 447 595 180 118 411 269 5
Political reasons 45% 43% 38% 45% 35% Best choice 21% 18% 21% 21% 28% Don't know 34% 39% 41% 34% 37% Unwgt N= 101 247 155 162 133 Q. Were you, yourself, personally affected by Superstorm Sandy? Yes 44% No 56% Unwgt N= 804 Political reasons 49% 40% 36% 43% 38% 48% 32% 48% Best choice 19% 20% 26% 26% 27% 16% 26% 16% Don't know 32% 40% 38% 32% 35% 36% 41% 36% Unwgt N= 168 238 114 98 162 205 232 192 Yes 38% 48% 45% 48% 42% 44% 47% 41% 45% 41% 44% 48% 37% No 62% 52% 55% 52% 58% 56% 53% 59% 55% 59% 56% 52% 63% Unwgt N= 302 309 172 209 399 178 359 445 602 182 117 413 274 Yes 33% 39% 50% 59% 35% 39% 46% 53% No 67% 61% 50% 41% 65% 61% 54% 47% Unwgt N= 169 241 116 98 161 206 236 197 Yes 45% 50% 53% 17% 56% No 55% 50% 47% 83% 44% Unwgt N= 101 249 156 163 135 6
September 3-9, 2013 The was conducted by telephone September 3-9, 2013 with a scientifically selected random sample of 925 New Jersey adults. Of these, 814 were registered voters. Data are weighted to represent known parameters in the New Jersey registered voter population, using gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity matching to US Census Bureau data. All results are reported with these weighted data. This telephone poll included 782 landline and 143 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for 814 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.6 and 53.4 percent (50 +/-3.4) if all New Jersey registered voters were interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded by Braun Research Incorporated and the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 814 New Jersey Registered Voters 41% Democrat 47% Male 13% 18-29 68% White 38% Independent 53% Female 32% 30-49 14% Black 21% Republican 30% 50-64 8% Hispanic 25% 65+ 10% Asian/Other/Multi 7