POSC 263 Seminar on Conflict and Peace

POSC 263 Seminar on Conflict and Peace Ebru Erdem Office: 2223 Watkins Office Hours: W 2:30-3:30 pm eerdem@ucr.edu UC Riverside Winter 07-08 T u 1:10-4pm Watkins 2145 About the Course This course surveys the major theoretical and empirical studies on conflict and peace. Politics is contentious by nature; however, at certain points, contention turns violent and conflicts arise. We will study violence and conflict at different levels, and then look into ways to build and sustain post-conflict peace. Why do states fight? What is the effect of regime type on propensity to go into a war? What are the dynamics of violence, civil wars, ethnic and communal conflicts, how are they similar and/or different from each other? How can post conflict peace be maintained and sustained, what kind of institutional arrangements are better for peace and political order? These are some of the questions we will address throughout the quarter. One important thing we need to keep in mind is the fact that we observe more peaceful politics than conflict at any level. In other words, conflicts we are studying in this course are exceptions ; however, their dire costs make the efforts to understand them worthy and significant. While we analyze why conflicts arise, we will inevitably inquire the counterfactual why they do not arise in other cases. We will study conflict at the interstate/international level, but the main focus of the course will be on domestic conflicts. Among the varieties of domestic conflicts, we will emphasize ethnic and communal conflicts. In the light of recent developments in the US and in the international arena, it has become imperative that we understand a specific means of political violence, namely terrorism; and we will cover the motivations of terrorism at the domestic or international levels. Requirements You are expected to come to class having read the reading assignments. The weekly reading list below has the required reading as well as recommended readings you can look into if you have further interest in the topic. I have kept the weekly readings at a minimum, as I prefer a deep discussion of the issues raised to covering many papers/chapters superficially. I would like you to come to the seminar ready to give a 5 minute summary of each reading and discuss various arguments raised and evidence given in the readings. Your grade will be based on your in class participation and two pieces of written work. Case report: In this report, you will apply the theories we have studied to a case of conflict (or non-conflict). You will find that the reading selection is not case study oriented, most of the readings are either theoretical or use cross-national data for empirical evidence. The case report 1

is aimed to have you think about the issues raised each week in the context of a case and also to encourage a case specialization. The case selection is up to you; however, you should confirm it with me before going forward with the report. This report is due in class on May 12 th. The final paper: The final paper will be a complete theoretical and empirical analysis, where you choose an empirical puzzle related to conflict and/or peace, explain it, and support your explanation with evidence. You may prefer to write on a puzzle related to the case you study in your case report, which is ok; except you have to have your own theory/explanation and the evidence you provide should be more than a qualitative case study. The method you use will be dictated by your puzzle (and certain data constraints), but you can use the comparative method at the very least. You are encouraged to exploit any quantitative data relevant and available. Due at noon on June 5 th, Friday. The composition of the final grade will be: Participation: 30%, Case report: 30%, Final paper: 40%. Required Books: Charles Tilly. 2003. The Politics of Collective Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge UP. Donald L. Horowitz. 2001. The Deadly Ethnic Riot. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. Stathis Kalyvas. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. New York: Cambridge UP Most of the other readings are available online through UC subscriptions, they are also on the ilearn/blackboards course site. There are a few exceptions (marked by *), I will make them available to you in advance. Weekly Schedule: Week 1: Introduction No readings assigned Week 2: International Conflicts and War *Hobbes, Thomas. The Leviathan. Chs. 13, 14 and 15. James Fearon. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War, International Organization 49(3): 379-414. Erik Gartzke. 1999. War is in the Error Term. International Organization 53(3): 567-587. Robert Jervis. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics 30, no. 2 (1978): 167 John A. Vasquez. 1987. The Steps to War: Toward a Scientific Explanation of Correlates of War Findings, World Politics, 40(1): 108-145. Hein Goemans. 2000. Fighting for Survival. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44(5): 555-79. Jack Levy. 1989. The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence, In Tetlock, Philip E., Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, and Charles Tilly, eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War. 2

New York: Oxford University Press. Jack S. Levy, "Contending Theories of International Conflict: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach," Managing Global Conflict, eds. Crocker, et al. Turpin & Kurtz, "Introduction: Violence - The Micro/Macro Link," The Web of Violence. Stephen Van Evera. 1998. "Hypotheses on Nationalism and War, In Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace, Cambridge: The MIT Press. David Lake and Donald Rothchild. 1998. "Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict," In Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace, Cambridge: The MIT Press. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven: Yale University Press. Geoffrey Blainey. 1988. The Causes of War. New York: Free Press. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson, and James Morrow. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Robert Powell. 1996. Uncertainty, Shifting Power, and Appeasement. American Political Science Review 90: 749-64. Robert Powell. 2004. The Inefficient Use of Power: Costly Conflict with Complete Information. American Political Science Review 98(2): 231-42. Week 3: The Democratic Peace Theory John R. Oneal, Francis H. Oneal, Zeev Maoz, and Bruce Russett. 1996. "The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-85." Journal of Peace Research 33(1): 624-38 Bruce Russet, John R. Oneal, and David R. Davis. 1998. The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod for Peace: International Organizations and Militarized Disputes, 1950-85. International Organization 52(3): 441-67. Edward D. Mansfield, and Jack Snyder. 1995. Democratization and the Dangers of War. International Security 20(1): 5-38. Henry S. Farber and Joanne Gowa. 1995. Polities and Peace. International Security 20(2):123-146. James Fearon. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88(3): 577-92. Kenneth Schultz. 1999. Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform?: Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War. International Organization 53(2): 233-66. Zeev Maoz, and Bruce Russett. 1993. Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace, 1946-1986. American Political Science Review 87(3): 624-638. Oneal, John R., and Bruce Russett. 1999. The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992. World Politics 52(1): 1-37. David Lake. 1992. Powerful Pacificists: Democratic States and War. American Political Science Review 86(1): 24-37. Lars-Erik Cederman. 2001. Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process. American Political Science Review 95(1): 15-31. Michael Doyle. 1986. Liberalism and World Politics, American Political Science Review 80(4): 1151-69. Erik Gartzke. 1998. Kant We All Just Get Along?: Motive, Opportunity, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace. American Journal of Political Science 42(1): 1-27. 3

John R. Oneal, and Bruce Russett. 1997. The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950-1985. International Studies Quarterly 41(2): 267-294. Bruce Russett, and John R. Oneal. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: W.W. Norton. Week 4: Domestic Conflicts I: Political Violence Charles Tilly. 2003. The Politics of Collective Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge UP. Chapters 1, 2 and 3. Stathis Kalyvas, The Ontology of Political Violence, Perspectives on Politics 1:3 (2003), pp. 475-494. Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein. 2006. Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War. APSR 100(3):429-447. Robert Bates, Avner Greif, and Smita Singh, Organizing Violence, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46:5 (2002), pp. 599-628. Youssef Cohen, Brian Brown, and A.F.K. Organski, The Paradoxical Nature of State Making: The Violent Creation of Order, American Political Science Review 75:4 (1981), pp. 901-910. Richard Snyder, and Ravi Bhavnani. 2005. Diamonds, Blood, and Taxes: A Revenue-Centered Framework for Explaining Political Order Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4):563-597. Joshua Epstein. 2002. Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach, Proceedings from the National Academy of Sciences 9(3):7243-50. Stathis Kalyvas. 1999. Wanton and Senseless? The Logic of Massacres in Algeria, Rationality and Society 11(3):243-285. Mart Bax. 2000. Warlords, Priests and the Politics of Ethnic Cleansing: A Case Study from Rural Bosnia Hercegovina, Ethnic & Racial Studies 23(1): 16-36 Michael Mann. 1999. The Dark Side of Democracy, New Left Review 235: 18-45. Jack Snyder. 2000. From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton and Co. Week 5: Domestic Conflicts: Civil War Nicholas Sambanis. 2004. What Is a Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48: 814-58. Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars. New York: Cambridge UP. Introduction and Chs. 1, 4-7, and 10. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56:563-595. Barbara F Walter. 2004. Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 371 388. James D. Fearon. 2002. Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others? Nicholas Sambanis. 2002. A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War Defense and Peace Economics 13(3):215-143. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. On Economic Causes of Civil War. http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/conflict/topic/13188/library/doc?id=13204 Nicholas Sambanis. 2004. Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War, Perspectives on Politics 2(2): pp. 259-279. 4

Paul Azam and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. Violence against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror? Journal of Peace Research 39(4): 461-485. Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2001. 'New' and 'Old' Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction? World Politics, 54(October):99-118. Michael Ross. 2004. How Does Natural Resource Wealth Influence Civil War? International Organization 58: 35-67. Philip Keefer. 2007. Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4185. Scott Gates. 2002. Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1): 1 1 1-130 Stathis Kalyvas. 2004. The Urban Bias in Research On Civil Wars Security Studies 13(3):160-190. Week 6: Domestic Conflicts: Ethnic Insurgency Ted Robert Gurr. 1993. Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization and Conflict since 1945, International Political Science Review, 14(2):161-201. *Robert Bates. 1974. Ethnic Competition and Modernization in Contemporary Africa. Comparative Political Studies 6(4):457-477 *Donald Horowitz. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. Chapters 1, 2, 3 and 6. James Fearon, and David Laitin. 2000. Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnicity, International Organization 54(4): 845-887. Nicholas Sambanis. 2001. Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(3): 259-282. James Fearon and David Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, American Political Science Review 97(1):75-90. Ted Robert Gurr, A Causal Model of Civil Strife: Comparative Analyses Using New Indices, American Political Science Review 62:4 (1968), pp. 1104-1124 Ted Robert Gurr, "Minorities, Nationalists, and Ethnopolitical Conflict," Managing Global Chaos, eds., Crocker, et al., 53-78 John Mueller, The Banality of Ethnic War, International Security 25:1 (200), pp. 42-70 Rogers Brubaker, and David Laitin. 1998. Ethnic and Nationalist Violence, Annual Review of Sociology 24: 423-52 Fred W. Riggs. 1997. "Turmoil Among Nations," Injustice Studies 1(November):1 Barbara Harff. 2003. No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1945, American Political Science Review 97(1):57-73. Barry Posen. 1993. The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict, Survival 35(1): 27-47. Roger Petersen. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth Century Eastern Europe, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Week 7: Communal conflict, riots, and gang violence in the urban fringe Donald L. Horowitz. 2001. The Deadly Ethnic Riot. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. Chapters 1-8. *Steven I. Wilkinson. 2004. Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge UP. Chs. 1 and 7. Clark McPhail. 1994. Presidential Address- The Dark Side of Purpose: Individual and 5

Collective Violence in Riots Sociological Quarterly, 35(1): 1-32. Scott H. Decker. 1996. Collective and Normative Features of Gang Violence Justice Quarterly, 13(2): 243-264. Paul R. Brass. 1997. Theft of an Idol: Text and Context in the Representation of Collective Violence. Princeton: Princeton University press. Chapter 3: Theft of an Idol. Tarja Väyrynen, "Securitised Ethnic Identities and Communal Conflicts," Peace and Conflict Studies, 5:1 (June 1998) http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/burton.htm Human Rights Watch. 1995. Slaughter Among Neighbors, The Political Origins of Communal Violence. New Haven: Yale University Press. Jeffrey D. Morenoff, Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raudenbush. 2001. Neighborhood Inequality, Collective Efficacy, and the Spatial Dynamics of Urban Violence Criminology 39 (3): 517 558. ***Case Study Report due in class on May 12 th *** Week 8: Terrorism, Domestic and International Scott Atran. 2006. The Moral Logic and Growth of Suicide Terrorism The Washington Quarterly, 29(2): 127-147. Rui J.P. de Figueiredo, Jr.and Barry Weingast. 2001. Vicious Cycles; Endogenous Political Extremism and Political Violence. Institute of Governmental Studies Working Paper 2001-9. Alan B. Krueger, and Jitka Maleckova. 2002. Education, Poverty, Political Violence, and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4): 119-144. Ethan Bueno de Mesqutia. 2005. The Quality of Terror. American Journal of Political Science, 49(3): 515-530. *Thomas C. Schelling. 1991., "What Purposes Can 'International Terrorism' Serve?" in Violence, Terrorism, and Justice, edited by R. G. Frey and Christopher W. Morris, New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 18-32. Walter Enders, and Todd Sandler. 1993. The Effectiveness of Anti-Terrorism Policies: Vector- Autoregression-Intervention Analysis. American Political Science Review 87(4):829-844. Ayaz R. Shaikh, "A Theoretical Approach to Transnational Terrorism," Georgetown Law Journal 80, no. 6 (August 1992): 2131-2174. Ethan Bueno de Mesquita. 2003. Conciliation, Counter-Terrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence: A Comparative Study of Four Cases. Week 9: Conflict resolution, reconciliation, peacemaking and peacekeeping William J. Dixon. 1994. Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 88(1):1-17. Chaim Kaufmann. 1996. Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars. International Security 20(4):136-175. Nicholas Sambanis. 2000. Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature. World Politics, 52(July):437-83. Andrew Kydd and Barbara F. Walter. 2002. Sabotaging Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence. International Organization 56(2):263-296. Roy Licklider. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993. 6

American Political Science Review 89(3). Roy Licklider. 1993. Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, New York: New York UP. Mason and Fett. 1996. How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(4):546-568 Anthony Baird. 1999. "An Atmosphere of Reconciliation: A Theory of Resolving Ethnic Conflicts Based on the Transcaucasian Conflicts," Online Journal of Peace and Conflict Resolution (August 1999). http://www.trinstitute.org/ojpcr/2_4baird.htm Radha Kumar. 1997. The Troubled History of Partition. Foreign Affairs 76(1):22-34. Fortna, Virginia Page. Inside and Out: Peacekeeping and the Duration of Peace after Civil and Interstate Wars. Michael Gilligan and Stephen John Stedman. Where do the Peacekeepers Go?. Pierre M. Atlas and Roy Licklider. Conflict Among Former Allies After Civil War Settlement: Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, and Lebanon. Journal of Peace Research 36(1):35-54. Steven R. David. 1997. Internal War: Causes and Cures. World Politics 49(4):552-76. Week 10: Political Order, Institutions, and Democracy Douglass C.North, William Summerhill, and Barry R. Weingast. 2000. Order, Disorder, and Economic Change: Latin America Versus North America. In Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and Hilton L. Root, eds., Governing for Prosperity, New Haven and London: Yale U.P. *Margaret Levi. 1998. Of Rule and Revenue, Los Angeles: University of California Press. Ch. 3: Creating Compliance James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin. 1996. Explaining Interethnic Cooperation. American Political Science Review 90(4):715-735 James D. Fearon. 1995. Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem Unpublished MS. Ashutosh Varshney. 2001. Ethnic Conflict and Civil Society: India and Beyond World Politics 53(3): 362-398. ***Final Paper due at noon on June 5 th in my office*** 7