Kyrgyzstan National Opinion Poll May, 00 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization Agency SIAR-Bishkek United States Agency for International Development
INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national representative survey was carried out on May -, 00 by SIAR-Bishkek for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI). The sample consisted of,00 Kyrgyz residents older than the age of 8 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions. Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population (rural and urban areas). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (- surveys). Sampling points within each region were selected by the Probability Proportional to Size Sampling. Respondents were selected by the random route method, using a Kish table to select a respondent from within a household. Data is collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. Fifty-four interviewers worked on the survey. Interviews were conducted in Kyrgyz, Russian and Uzbek languages. The response rate for the survey was percent. The margin of error does not exceed +three percent. The study was designed, coordinated, and analyzed by IRI and Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization (Dr. R. Alisauskiene). Due to rounding, some charts may not add to 00 percent.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
Generally speaking, is Kyrgyzstan developing in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer May 00 8 0 May 009 9 8 October 008 8 0 November 00 8 May 00 8 October 00 0 8 March 00 9 April 00 8 8 0 0 0 0 80 00
Generally speaking, is Kyrgyzstan developing in the right direction or the wrong direction? (by region) 00 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer 80 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 8 0 0 0 8 8 Bishkek Chui Issyk-kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken
Generally speaking, is Kyrgyzstan developing in the right direction or the wrong direction? (by age) Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/no answer 00 90 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 8 8-9 years old 0-9 years old 0+ years old
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Kyrgyzstan? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/no answer May 00 9 8 May 009 0 October 008 8 8 November 00 9 8 8 8 May 00 8 0 October 00 8 8 8 0 March 00 0 8 April 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 90 00
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Kyrgyzstan? (by region) Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don t know/no answer South 9 North 9 0 Urban 9 0 Rural 0 8 Bishkek 8 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 8
What is democracy for you? (three answers accepted) Freedom 0 Human rights 9 Free and fair elections Stability Equality before the law Development, high level of living Absence of corruption Supremacy of law Protection of private property Other 0. 0. 0 8 Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue first Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue Don't know/no answer 9
In your opinion, does democracy exist in Kyrgyzstan? Yes, it exists It most likely exists It most likely does not exist No, it doesn't exist Difficult to reply Don't know/no answer May 00 0 9 May 009 9 0 0 0 0 80 00 0
In your opinion, does democracy exist in Kyrgyzstan? (by region) Yes, it exists It most likely exists It most likely does not exist No, it doesn't exist Difficult to reply Don't know/no answer Bishkek 8 9 9 Rural 0 9 0 Urban 0 North 0 0 0 South 8 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
Over the last months, has the financial situation of your household improved, worsened or stayed the same? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot May 00 8 May 009 8 8 8 October 008 November 00 May 00 October 00 9 March 00 April 00 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 90 00
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I feel more secure this year than I did last year? Fully agree Agree Disagree Fully disagree Don't know/no answer May 00 0 May 009 9 0 0 0 0 80 00
ISSUES
In your opinion, what are the most important issues Kyrgyzstan is facing at the present time? (two answers accepted) Unemployment Security, absence of war Economic development Political crisis Corruption Agricultural development Crime Development of social services Lack of governance Increase of minimum wage Border issues Legal chaos Instability and disorder Payment of pensions Creation of jobs for youth Issue of nationality Industry, productivity Other 8 8 Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue first Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue
In your opinion, what are the most important issues Kyrgyzstan is facing at the present time? (two answers accepted) 8 9 0 9 0 April 00 March 00 October 00 May 00 November 00 October 008 May 009 Unemployment Economic development Corruption Security, absence of war Political crisis May 00
In your opinion, what are the most important issues households are facing at the present time? (two answers allowed) Jobs Improving the standard of living Housing problems Education costs Problems with water Low benefits and pensions Expensive utilities Shortage of agricultural and petrolium products High healthcare costs Health problems Education problems Lack of calm in the country, disorder Other No problems No answer 0 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue first Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue
In your opinion, what are the most important issues households are facing at the present time? (two answers allowed; percent of all respondents mentioning this issue) 9 0 9 8 9 8 0 0 April 00 March 00 October 00 May 00 November 00 October 008 May 009 May 00 Jobs Improvement of standard of living Housing problems 8
POLITICS 9
What have been the most important achievements of the interim government? (two answers accepted) Reducing tariffs on electricity, mobile communications Attempts to stabilize situation in the country 8 Overthrow of Bakiev's clan Reducing prices Return of sold state enterprises back to state Aid for familes of victims of April -8 It is too early to speak about achievements Improvement of international relations Cooperation with population Timely payment of pensions, salaries, benefits Governing the country by themselves Struggle against injustice Other No achievements Don't know/no answer 0
What have been the most important achievements of the government over the last months? May 009 (two answers accepted) Construction of hydroelectric station, Kambar Ata Increase of wages, benefits and pensions Construction of new schools, buildings Repair of roads, infrastructure Strengthening the relationships with Russia Removal of the Ganci airbase Providing social aid to victims, dependents and pensioners Timely payment of wages, benefits and pensions Development of economy Lowering prices for food Strengthening relationships with other countries Free meals, books, training and repairs at schools Fighting corruption No achievements Other 0 Don't know/no answer
What have been the most important achievements of the interim government? (Percentage of respondents mentioning the overthrow of Bakiev s clan; N=9) 8 0 0 Bishkek Chui Issyk-Kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken
What have been the most important achievements of the interim government? (Percentage of respondents mentioning no achievements; N=) 9 8 9 0 0 Bishkek Chui Issyk-Kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken
What have been the biggest mistakes of the interim government? (two answers allowed) Bloodshed and loss of life 8 Letting Bakiev go Instability in the country Other Disorder, lack of control No consent between members of government Struggle for power Illeagal capture of power Personnel problems Increasing crime Problems with the borders Have not used strong measures to control provocateurs Indecision Other No failures Don't know/no answer 9
What have been the biggest mistakes of the government over the last months? May 009 (two answers allowed) Limiting the electricity supply Increased crime rate Corruption Tax increases Weak authorities Economic crisis High prices for public utilities High food prices Sale of water, electricity Political and social instability Expensive education Unemployment Sale of land to foreigners No attention to agriculture Struggle for power Poverty Wrong personnel policy, tribal relations No mistakes Other Don't know/no answer 8
Do you support the interim government? Don't know/no answer % Definitely support % Still undecided % Probably support % Definitely do not support % Probably do not support 8%
Do you support the interim government? (by region) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 Bishkek Chui Issyk-Kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken Definitely support Probably support Probably do not support Definitely do not support Still undecided Don't know/no answer
What were the most important achievements under President Bakiev s governance? (three answers accepted) Increase of pensions and grants Construction of hydroelectric power station, Kambar Ata 0 Construction of new schools, hospitals, buildings Free meals, books, training and repairs at schools 9 Repair of roads, infrastructure Building of roads Development of manufacture, industry Increasing the salary of state employees Timely payment of wages, benefits and pensions Development of economy Stability in the country Providing social aid to pensioners, handicaps, etc. Other 9 No achievements Don't know/no answer 9 8
What were the most important achievements under President Bakiev s governance? (Respondents mentioning construction of schools, hospitals and buildings; N=) (by region) 9 0 Bishkek Chui Issyk-Kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken 9
What were the most important achievements under President Bakiev s governance? (Respondents mentioning no achievement; N=8) (by region) 8 Bishkek Chui Issyk-Kul Naryn Talas Osh Jalal-abad Batken 0
What were the biggest mistakes under President Bakiev s governance? (three answers allowed) Family rule, has brought relatives to power Increased tariffs for electricity Growth of corruption Stealing government money, stealing from people Bloodshed, execution of peaceful people Selling state property and land Increased prices for general goods and services Appointment of son to supervisory position High prices for public utilities Poverty, low standard of living Instability, disorder in the country Economic crisis Crime Not fulfilling promises Privatization of state property Did not listen to peoples' opinion Fled the country Deception of the population Tax increase Other Don't know/no answer 9 9 8 9
What were the biggest mistakes under President Bakiev s governance? May 009 (three answers allowed) Limiting electricity availability Corruption Increased crime rate Expensive education Wrong personnel policy, tribal relations Unemployment High prices for public utilities High food prices Tax increases Economic crisis Increased migration Poverty Sale of land to foreigners Sale of water, electricity Political and social instability Problems with healthcare services Disagreements among politicians Ecology Decline of agriculture No mistakes Other Don't know/no answer 8 8
Thinking about the future of our country, what do you fear most of all? (three answers allowed) War, civil war, ethnic conflicts Economic crisis, decline of living standard Division of the country into south and north Instability, political crisis Natural disasters, ecology Crime, drug addiction Future of the country, children, youth Unemployment Corruption Dependence on another country Repetition of events of April -8 Meetings, revolutions Disappearance of Kyrgyz nation, language Repetition of failures of previous government, clan Law chaos Anarchy Diseases Other Don't know/no answer 9
Thinking about the future of our country, what do you fear most of all? May 009 (three answers allowed) War, civil war, ethnic conflicts Natural disasters, ecological problems Economic crisis, inflation Crime, drug addiction Unemployment Future of the country, children, youth Division of the country into South and North Instability, political crisis Diseases Disappearance of Kyrgyz nation Corruption God Migration Terrorism, religious extremism Energy crisis Other 8 9 9 9 Don't know/no answer 0 0 9
POLITICAL PARTIES
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It is healthy for Kyrgyzstan to have an active opposition? May 00 May 009 9 October 008 8 0 November 00 8 8 8 May 00 9 8 9 October 00 8 March 00 April 00 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 90 00 Fully agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Fully disagree Don t know/no answer
ELECTIONS
What are the most significant qualities the President of Kyrgyzstan should possess? (three answers allowed) Previous work experience Personal qualities Political program Moral qualities Education Financial standing Specific Ethnicity Age Authority Regional affiliation Care of the people Clan affiliation Other Don't know/no answer 0. 0. 0. 0. 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 Percentage of all respondents mentioning this quality first Percentage of all respondents mentioning this quality 8
Are you going to vote in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections? Undecided % Definitely will vote % Definitely will not vote % Probably will not vote % Probably will vote 8% 9
What are the three most important issues the newly-elected President should pay attention to first? (Percentage of all respondents. Up to three answers allowed) Economic development Stability in the country Unemployment Improve living standard of population Development of agriculture Inter-ethnic relations Security, secure peace Fight against corruption Care of the people, children Development of industry Social protection of population Ensure rule of law Ensure political stability Solve personnel problems Youth unemployment Honesty, clarity in everything Education problems Other Don't know/no answer 8 0 9 8.9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue first Percentage of all respondents mentioning this issue 0
In your opinion, the last presidential election in 009 was Free and fair % No answer % Somewhat free and fair % Somewhat not free and not fair 8% Not free and not fair %
In your opinion, the upcoming presidential election will be May 00 9 May 009 8 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 Free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and not fair Not free and not fair No answer
In your opinion, the last parliamentary elections in 00 were May 00 May 009 0 0 0 0 80 00 Free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and not fair Not free and not fair No answer
In your opinion, the upcoming parliamentary elections in 00 will be Free and fair 9% No answer % Somewhat free and fair % Not free and not fair % Somewhat not free and not fair %
Will you vote in the upcoming referendum on adopting the new constitution? (referendum took place on June, 00) Definitely will vote % Undecided % Definitely will not vote % Probably will not vote % Probably will vote %
Will you vote in the upcoming referendum on adopting the new constitution? (by region; referendum took place on June, 00) North 0 9 South 0 0 0 0 0 80 00 Definitely will vote Probably will vote Probably will not vote Definitely will not vote Undecided
If the referendum were held today, how would you vote for or against the adoption of the new constitution? (Will vote in June, 00 referendum; N=9) No answer % Definitely for % Have not decided yet % Definitely against % Probably against % Probably for 8%
If the referendum were held today, how would you vote for or against the adoption of the new constitution? (Will vote in June, 00 referendum; N=9) (by region) South North 0 0 0 0 80 00 Definitely for Probably for Probably against Definitely against Have not decided yet No answer 8
Why have you decided to vote against the constitution? (Respondents indicating that they will vote against adoption of new constitution; N=0) I don't have enough information about the draft constitution My vote will not change anything I do not believe that the referendum will be free and fair 0 I am not interested in politics I don't have time to vote 9 I don't like the draft constitution Other No answer 0 0 0 0 9
INSTITUTIONS 0
Please evaluate the work of these organizations and public institutions. Parliament 0 0 9 Judical system 9 Presidential administration 8 0 The government 0 9 Law enforcement bodies 9 0 Political parties Institutions of local governance 0 Educational system 9 Army Religious institutions 0 Media 9 0 Nongovernmental organizations 8 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 Bad Neutral Good Don't know/no answer
Please evaluate the work of these organizations and public institutions. (Mean score of evaluations, where one means very bad and 0 means excellent) Media Religious institutions Educational system Army Nongovernmental organizations Institutions of local governance...9...9 Law enforcement bodies The government Political parties..9. Judical system Presidential administration Parliament.9.8. 8 9 0 Very bad Excellent
Describe your level of trust in each of these organizations and public institutions. Judical system 8 Presidential administration 8 8 0 Parliament 0 9 9 Political parties 9 Law enforcement bodies The government Army 0 Institutions of local governance 0 Educational system 8 Media Religious institutions 0 0 Nongovernmental organizations 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 90 00 Distrust Neither trust nor distrust Trust Don t know/no answer
Describe your level of trust in each of these organizations and public institutions. (Mean score of evaluations where one means don t trust at all and 0 means fully trust) Religious institutions Media Educational system Army Nongovernmental organizations Institutions of local governance...9.0.. The government Law enforcement bodies Political parties Parliament Judical system Presidential administration...8.9.0. 8 9 0 Don t trust at all Fully trust
CORRUPTION
What is your perception of the current level of corruption in Kyrgyzstan? May 00 May 009 8 October 008 0 November 00 8 0 9 May 00 October 00 0 March 00 0 High Average Low Don t know/no answer
In your opinion, has the level of corruption in Kyrgyzstan over the last months under President Bakiev increased, decreased or remained the same? No Answer % Decreased % Increased % Remained the same %
In your opinion, has the level of corruption in Kyrgyzstan over the last months increased, decreased or remained the same? May 009 October 008 8 8 November 00 8 8 0 0 0 0 80 00 Increased Remained the same Decreased Don t know/no answer 8
In your opinion, has corruption in Kyrgyzstan after April -8 events increased, decreased or remained the same? Increased % No answer % Decreased 0% Remained the same % 9
VALUES 0
In your opinion, to what extent are the following forms of protest acceptable? Collecting signatures for a petition 8 Legal demonstrations 0 Legal strikes 0 8 Boycotts 8 0 Demonstrations without permission 0 8 Strikes without permission 8 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 8 Blocking of streets 9 0 0 0 0 0 80 00 Fully acceptable More acceptable than not More unacceptable than acceptable Not acceptable at all Don t know/no answer
INTERNET USAGE
When was the last time you used the Internet? Last hours Last week Last month Last three months Last six months Last year 9 Never used it 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80
When was the last time you used the Internet? (by settlement) Last hours 8 0 Last week 8 0 Last month Last three months Rural Urban Bishkek Last six months Last year 8 0 Never used it 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 90 00
For what purposes do you use the Internet? (Internet users; N=) To check e-mail For news For education For work For chatting For fun 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE
Family Abroad Do you have any family members who have left Kyrgyzstan in order to work and/or live abroad for a longer time? If yes, how many? (N= 0) 00% 00% 90% 80% 9 90% 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yes No 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 Three or More Two One 0% 0% 0% May 00 0% May 00
What are your family s basic sources of living? The salary or income of family members 0 My salary or income from an enterprise or farm Social benefits Use of products from a part-time farm Sale of products from a part-time farm The help of relatives, friends in form of money or food and goods 8 0 9 0 0 May 00 May 009 October 008 November 00 8
Please evaluate the financial position of your household. We can afford most things - a car, a summer residence, travel 0. 0. abroad May 00 Income suffices for durable goods, but not for very expensive items 9 May 009 October 008 Income suffices for food and clothing, but not for purchase of expensive things 8 8 Money suffices for food, but not for purchase of clothes 9 Money suffices only for food, but not for utility bills Money does not suffice even for food 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS 0
Regions Batken 8% Jalal-Abad % Bishkek 8% Osh % Chui % Issyk-Kul 8% Talas % Naryn % North: Bishkek, Chui, Issyk-Kul, Naryn, Talas South: Osh, Jalal-Abad, Batken Size of settlement Towns (urban) % Bishkek (urban) 8% Rural areas %