Filip Tanay EMPL Refugee Task Force and Thematic Analysis Unit European Commission Measuring Refugee Integration using the Labour Force Survey 26 April 2017 *The content of this presentation is the opinion of the author and does not necessarily represent the official position of the European Commission.
Developments in migration situation Quite a few arrivals many of whom are likely to be granted refugee status Source: Eurostat
Situation of those that arrived prior to 2014 Age:15-64 age group Year: 2014 EU-25 (without DK, IE and NL)
LFS as a data source Ad hoc module is a cost efficient way of trying out new variables before adding them to the core questionnaire but in the meantime not many data points on migrants by reason for migration i.e. that enables us to identify refugees
Share of refugees Migrants in the EU by main reason for migrating to the country (15-64) Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Share of refugees and this differs across EU Member States Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Social situation
Social outcomes Refugees are less likely to be fluent in the hostcountry language but more likely to naturalise Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Social outcomes But varies a lot by country Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
LFS as a data source Some but not much data on social outcomes in the LFS
Labour market outcomes
Labour market outcomes Refugees have a difficult situation on the labour market Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Labour market outcomes And even lower for women, especially for refugees Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Labour market outcomes but varies greatly with education Employment rates by education level and gender Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
LFS as a data source Breakdowns show a lot of what is happening behind the scenes Further breakdowns are not statistically significant so oversampling would be more than welcome
What works Employment outcomes of refugees catch up with time, but it takes up to 20 years Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
LFS as a data source Lack of panel data but quite a good proxy
How can integration programmes help? What works?
What works Education helps a lot Employment rates of refugees and other non-eu born by education level in the European Union, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
What works Education helps a lot - yet return could be higher Employment rates of refugees and other non-eu born by education level in the European Union, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
What works Having intermediate language skills gives a big boost to employment chances Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
What works but important to make sure it is to a sufficient level Refugees with an intermediate or advanced knowledge of the language by language course attendance, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module Highest level of language training provided to refugees (A1-C2) AT B2 BE C1 DE C1 FR A2 SE B1 UK B1
What works Many obstacles (but not easy to measure) Main obstacles to get a job, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
LFS as a data source Wealth of existing variables (including on policy provision!) but with their own limitations and not so much on social indicators
EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE 2016
Thank you for your attention For more info: filip.tanay@ec. europa.eu
Additional slides for discussion
Motivation
Highly motivated Refugees are highly motivated Share of those with a beginner or less knowledge of the host country language
Activity rate (%) Highly motivated Refugees are highly motivated Activity rate 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Employment or study Family Refugees Native born 0% <05 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20+ Years of residence
Developments in migration situation Substantial inflows of refugees since 2014 1st time asylum applications, EU-28 Source: Eurostat
Size of the youth wave with rising issue of unaccompanied minors Unaccompanied minors in asylum applications, 2015 Source: Eurostat
Size of the current wave Historical precedent(?) Asylum applications all citizenships (1985-2007) and 1st time asylum applications TCN (2008-2015) 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Germany 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Eurostat
Size of the current wave Historical presedan (?) Asylum applications all citizenships (1985-2007) and 1st time asylum applications TCN (2008-2015) Source: Eurostat
Size of the current wave Most affected countries Distribution of asylum seekers across Member States (1st time asylum applications), 2015 Source: Eurostat
Size of the current wave Most affected countries (?) Distribution of asylum seekers across Member States (1st time asylum applications & 1st instance decisions), 2015 Source: Eurostat
Size of the current wave showing a clear need for EU level response 1st time asylum applications and 1st instance asylum decisions as a % of total population, 2015 Source: Eurostat
So perhaps not quite a tsunami
Size of the wave New wave is young and sizeable 1st time asylum applications by age Source: Eurostat
Policies in place to help
Where 80% of all refugees reside in just four countries Refugees by main host countries in selected European countries, 15-64, 2014, thousands Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Social situation
Social outcomes Refugees are less likely to speak the host-country language Share of refugees and other non-eu born who report having at least advanced knowledge of the host-country language, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Social outcomes but tend to be more likely to naturalise Share of nationals among non-native born who have been in the country for at least 10 years, by category, 15-64, 2014 Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Labour market outcomes but differs significantly between countries Source: Own calculations based on 2014 EU LFS ad hoc module
Eurostat analysis challenges persist with second generation Employment rates of persons aged 25-54 in the EU*, by migration status and origin, 2014 Source: Eurostat