Famine and Hunger: Past and Present Cormac Ó Gráda University College Dublin [cormac.ograda@ucd.ie]
Mahony s Images of the Famine in Illustrated London News
In the village of Drimcaggy... These are true facts Pop. 1841: 149 Pop. 1851: 57
c20: Mainly Human Agency through War (WW1 and WW2) and Poor Governance (USSR, China, N Korea, Ethiopia) 1972-75: 2m. died (Sahel, Bangladesh); then Cambodia 1980s: Ethiopia, Sudan => 1m 1990s: far fewer: Bahr El Ghazal [southern Sudan] in 1998 and Ogaden [Ethiopia] in 1999 2000
Moldova 1946-47: Mortality: 0.2 million/ 2.5 million Zima (1999): product of excessive grain procurements by Moscow Wheatcroft (2009): critical food supply situation in USSR and elsewhere
In the spring of 1920, a severe drought gripped the lower part of the North China Plain This long drought extended into the spring of 1921. As a result several million farmers perished in what came to be known as the North China Famine of 1921. Ralph Thaxton (2008) Between 1958 and 1962, China descended into hell. Mao Zedong threw his country into a frenzy with the Great Leap Forward, an attempt to catch up to and overtake Britain in less than 15 years. The experiment ended in the greatest catastrophe the country had ever known, destroying tens of millions of lives. Frank Dikötter (2010)
3 very recent famines : Malawi (2002) [ small ] Niger (2005) [ disette /dearth/famine] Somalia (2011) [war]
Niger 2005 News broken by Hilary Andersson (BBC) and Jan Egeland (UN) Focus of much international attention, controversy Sultbløffen (Norwegian TV, 2008)
SOMALIA (2011-12): No official census since 1975. UN famine benchmark of 4 deaths per 10,000 per diem for children<5 years => ADR of 146 per 1,000. But in Somalia in non-crisis conditions ADR of <5s is 137 per 1,000 (UNICEF). UN criterion for declaring famine is 20%+ of population on <2,100 kcals daily. But in Somalia per capita food consumption in estimated at 1,734 kcals in 2001.
SOMALIA (2011-12): Death toll of 260,000 widely cited Evidential basis slender, though carefully argued Contradicted by qualitative evidence [comparison with 1991; famine narratives] If true, then => humanitarian relief powerless
Baidoa is one of the 3 or 4 experiences I ve had that have made me say, famine reveals itself. It was crazy! It was really hell! Rony Brauman, MSF, on 1992 A lot of MSF people were traumatized Working conditions were extremely bad People would call me after 3 days and say, well thank you but I m going home. Jules Pieters, MSF Holland, on 1992
2011/2: Displaced woman from Bay region: We moved by foot from Ufurow to Dollo. We lost three children on the way between the eleven families moving together We spent 15 days on the way. We used donkey carts to carry the weak children, water, and food. Displaced man from Bakool: We spent 6 days on the way... No, we didn t lose anybody on the way but we lost a child at Yubow, the screening and transit point
2011/2: Bay-Bakool: We left [the area] with some cattle still alive but not able to move. One of my children died on the way to Baidoa... Lower Juba: I have 8 children so it was really tough Normally there are about 350 families living in my village... More than 150 families from this village went to the refugee camps in Kenya, many are now back. In this village more than 20 children, most of them <5 years, died.
Comparing 1991/92 and 2011/12 Nutrition GAM: 40-70% GAM: 20-45% CDR: 7.3 to 23.4/10,000 per day CDR: 2.15 to 5.93/10,000 per day Agriculture 50-70% livestock death in Central/South Cereal crop (sorghum belt) down 63% Other factors Below baseline livestock herds, all species Significant decline in cereal production: LS 37% down in Gu 2011 No money transfer systems available $1,250 m. in humanitarian relief Source: Somalia IGAD Strategic Plan 2013
THE CRISIS OF 2007-08 Prices rose dramatically Much unrest Increase in malnutrition rates BUT: no famine!
[a] 1985-99 2000-14 [b] Population growth and GDP per capita growth across sub-saharan Africa
Famine Hunger A crisis A steady state In abeyance Still with us Disaster relief Development Distinction is important
THE PRESENT AS HISTORY? Devereux et al. after 2011-12: we are now in a set of circumstances under which the threat of famine is more pronounced than at any time in the past several decades. increasing climate and price variability highly polarized political situation, in which prevention of humanitarian disasters unfortunately not very high among competing priorities
RECORD Year 1970 1990 2017 Beef 34.3 50.5 61.3 Pork 25.5 65.1 111.0 Chicken 7.5 27.7 90.4 PROJECTIONS A B Year 2006 2030 2015 2026 Capture 64.5 58.2 92.6 92 Farm 47.2 93.6 76.6 102 Total 111.7 151.8 169.2 194 Source: FAO [all data in million tons]
THE PRESENT AS HISTORY: Oil is everything As the oil disappears, our entire industrial society will go with it. There will be no means of supporting the billions of people who now live on this planet. Above all, there will be insufficient food, and the result will be terrible famine (Peter Goodchild, The Coming Chaos, 2011). 1980s: Paul Ehrlich versus Julian Simon Today: economics as the complacent science?