Challenge and Change

Challenge and Change

Norma C. Noonan Vidya Nadkarni Editors Challenge and Change Global Threats and the State in Twenty-first Century International Politics

Editors Norma C. Noonan Augsburg College Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA Vidya Nadkarni University of San Diego San Diego, California, USA ISBN 978-1-137-49264-7 ISBN 978-1-137-48479-6 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-48479-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016952803 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Cover illustration: Paul Robinson / Getty Images Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Nature America Inc. New York

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CONTENTS 1 Introduction: A Century of Challenges 1 Norma C. Noonan and Vidya Nadkarni Part I The Global Context 11 2 The End of the Western Age? The Twenty-First- Century Challenges for the West 13 Norma C. Noonan 3 A Russian Perspective on Twenty-First-Century Challenges 35 Tatiana Shakleina 4 Challenges to Interstate Security: China and India in the Twenty-First Century 71 Vidya Nadkarni Part II Issues and Challenges 105 5 The Economic Dimensions of Globalization 107 David Bartlett vii

viii CONTENTS 6 Global Challenges in a Hyper Connected World 143 Milda K. Hedblom 7 Technology and International Security 165 Andrew Smith 8 Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges and Policy Conundrum 195 Dipak K. Gupta 9 International Norms in the New Common Spaces: A New Challenge in the Twenty- First Century 225 Alexey Fenenko 10 A Final Word 247 Norma C. Noonan and Vidya Nadkarni Glossary of Terms and Acronyms 253 Bibliography 265 Index 283

NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS AND EDITORS Norma C. Noonan the co-editor of this project, is Professor Emerita of Political Science and Leadership Studies at Augsburg College. With her background in both political science and leadership studies, she brings a distinctive perspective to the study of the USA as an aging superpower. As professor emerita, she continues to teach in a leadership studies graduate program and do research and lecture on various topics involving leadership, foreign policy, and women in society. She has been the co-editor and major contributor to three major monographs: Russian Women in Politics and Society (1996); Russian Women s Movements (2001); and Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective (2013). She has written numerous articles in scholarly journals and reference works over the years. She has also served as a reviewer for scholarly journals and publishers. Vidya Nadkarni the co-editor of this project, is Professor and Chair of Political Science at the University of San Diego. Nadkarni s research interests are in the area of international relations and foreign policy, specifically on the foreign policies of resurgent (Russia) and aspiring (China and India) global powers. She is the author of Strategic Partnerships in Asia: Balancing without Alliances (2010), co-editor of Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective: The Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries (2013), and co-author of The Foreign Policy of Russia: Changing Systems, Enduring Interests (Fifth Edition, 2014). David Bartlett is Executive in Residence and Director of the Full-Time MBA Program at the Kogod School of Business, American University in Washington, DC. He previously held faculty positions at the University of Minnesota and Vanderbilt University and visiting professorships in Armenia and Uzbekistan. Bartlett s research, teaching, and consulting focus on international corporate strategy with special attention to emerging markets and emerging technologies. He has written widely on these and related topics in both scholarly journals and ix

x NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS AND EDITORS international business venues while leading interdisciplinary research projects on the global economy. His book The Political Economy of Dual Transformations: Market Reform and Democratization in Hungary won the AAASS/SSRC s Hewett Prize for Political Economy. He has a PhD and a BA from the University of California and an MA from the University of Chicago. Alexey Fenenko is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Lomonosov Moscow State University. Fenenko is well known in Russia and an active scholar in national and international forums. He was a Project Coordinator in the Academic Educational Forum on International Relations (2004 2011) and a Leading Research Fellow in the Institute of International Security Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences (2004 2013). Dipak K. Gupta is Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Department of Political Science at San Diego State University. He served as the Founding Director of undergraduate program in International Security and Conflict Resolution (ISCOR). His primary research interest involves the causes of terrorism, ethnic conflict, and the impact of political instability on national economic development. Gupta is the author of nine books and over 150 articles and chapters in scholarly journals, research monographs, edited volumes, and newspapers. He is frequently interviewed on foreign policy and terrorism matters by the media locally, nationally, and internationally. Milda K. Hedblom is a professor, lawyer, and consultant on matters of Internet law, governance and regulation, infrastructure and network development, global communications, and cyber surveillance. She is Professor of Politics and Communications at Augsburg College, Minneapolis, and has held positions elsewhere including the Office of Plans and Policy of the FCC; as a Senior Fellow in International Telecommunications at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC; and as Executive Coordinator of the UN World Summit on Information project in Geneva. She is Director of the Telecommunications Policy and Information Society Policy Forum at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota. Her published work includes articles and chapters in professional, industry, and legal journals and in volumes on European Union US relations, on information and telecommunications policy, on national and international regulations, and on infrastructure and network development. She has a BA from Macalester College, St. Paul, Minnesota, and a PhD from the University of Minnesota including study at Oxford University, and a JD from the University of Minnesota. Tatiana A. Shakleina is Professor of Political Science and Head of Department of Applied Research of International Problems, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MGIMO University). She received her degrees (PhD and

NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS AND EDITORS xi Doctor of Political Science) at the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, where she worked as Head of the Department of Foreign Policy Studies till 2007. She has the Russian Academy of Sciences Academician E. Tarle Award in History (2006) and Special Award (Honorary Decoration) by the Security Council of the Russian Federation (2011). Shakleina is the author of numerous books and articles and the editor of monographs and text-books. Among recent ones are the following: T. Shakleina. Russia and the United States in World Politics. Moscow: ASPEKT PRESS, 2012 (special award (Diploma) of the Russian Political Science Association, 2012); Megatrends. World Order Evolution in the 21st Century. Ed. by T. Shakleina and A. Baykov. Text- Book. M.: ASPEKT PRESS, 2013 (special award (Diploma) of the Russian Political Science Association, 2013); Introduction to Applied Research of International Problems. Ed. by T. Shakleina. Text-book. M.: ASPEKT PRESS, 2014. T. Shakleina has had long- standing cooperation with American specialists in international relations, is a member of the International Studies Association, and is a participant of its annual conventions since 1992. Andrew Smith is a defense, national, and international policy specialist from Australia. He served more than 30 years in the Australian Army, retiring as a Brigadier with deep experience in multinational operations, military futures and technology, force development, and homeland defense. His doctoral research was on Australian government decision-making on homeland security. He has written numerous papers and articles on terrorism, weapons law, military support to domestic security, and institutional change within national defense establishments and taught courses in US national security strategy, terrorism, and the Asia-Pacific security environment at the United States Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth. He currently works as a senior adviser to security sector transition projects in the Middle East.

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Fig. 5.1 Fig. 5.2 Fig. 5.3 Fig. 5.4 Fig. 5.5 Fig. 5.6 Fig. 5.7 Shifts in the global economy. GDP by Economic Group, 2008 2019 (Purchasing Power Parity, USD billion). Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2014 109 Leading merchandise trading countries. Top merchandise exporters and importers (USD billion). Source : World Trade Organization, Statistical Database, 2014 111 Foreign direct investment. Top 25 destinations, inbound FDI stock, 2008 and 2013 (USD million). Source : UNCTADStat, 2014 114 Foreign direct investment. Top 25 sources, outbound FDI stock, 2008 and 2013 (USD million). Source : UNCTADStat, 2014 115 Sovereign Wealth Funds. Largest SWFs by assets (USD billion). Source : SWFI, Sovereign Wealth Fund Rankings, 2014 119 International trade disputes. Distribution of WTO-adjudicated disputes by country, 1995 2014 (number of disputes). Source : World Trade Organization, Chronological List of Dispute Cases, 2014 125 Regional Trade Agreements. WTO-notified RTAs by type of agreement, 1947 2014 (number of agreements). Source : World Trade Organization, Regional Trade Agreements Information System, 2014 126 xiii

xiv LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Fig. 5.8 Fig. 8.1 International Investment Agreements. IIAs signed and terminated, 1990 2014 (number of agreements). Source : UNCTAD, International Investment Agreements Navigator, 2014 132 Global distribution of income: Percentage of world income held by the percentage of people. Source : Data from Dikhanov, Y. (2005). Trends in global income distribution, 1970 2000, and scenarios for 2015. New York, NY: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 211 Table 3.1 Great power players in Small Eurasia 51 Table 3.2 Positions of six important actors in world and regional politics 58