Harper numerically surpasses Trudeau in preferred PM on Nanos tracking for first time in four months (Released 11/12/2014)

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking (period ending November 7 th, 2014) released November 12 th, 2014

Harper numerically surpasses Trudeau in preferred PM on Nanos tracking for first time in four months (Released 11/12/2014) The federal Conservatives continue to positively trend in the weekly Nanos Party Power Index. In the national index tracking which has scores out of 100 the Liberals are at 56 points, the Conservatives at 54 points, the NDP are at 51 points, the Green Party at 31 points and the BQ are at 28 points out of 100 (QC only) respectively. The Tories have hit a new 12 month high in the Nanos weekly tracking. Also of note, for the first time in a year, the Tories have surpassed the Liberals in the index in the vote rich province of Ontario. On the preferred PM front, Harper has numerically surpassed Trudeau for the first time in four months. In the latest weekly tracking 32 per cent of Canadians say Harper is their preferred choice for PM followed by Trudeau at 30 per cent, Mulcair at 20 per cent and May at four percent (14 per cent were unsure). Even with the emerging trends on the leadership and index fronts, the proportion of accessible voters for all of the parties remains near their 12 month average. Asked a series of independent questions, 52 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, 41 per cent would consider voting NDP, 41 per cent would consider voting Conservative and 28 percent would consider voting for the Green Party of Canada. www.nanosresearch.com 2

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. Canada Party Power Index This Week Last Week Data Summary 4 Weeks Ago 3 Months Ago 1 Year Ago (Nov 2013) 12 Month High 12 Month Low 12 Month Average Liberal.8 57.0 59.2.9 56.3 60.7 53.6 56.6 Conservative 53.5 52.3 51.7 48.6 50.8 53.5 48.4 50.4 NDP 50.7 51.4 49.0 51.3 48.1 52.2 47.4 49.4 Green 31.1 31.4 31.6 34.8 31.8 35.2 30.2 32.7 Bloc 28.3 26.4 25.1 27.5 25.2 29.2 24.4 26.7 Party Consider Liberal 52.4% 53.4% 58.1% 53.9% 49.7% 59.7% 47.2% 52.6% NDP 41.4% 43.6% 45.8% 42.9% 39.8% 45.9% 37.9% 42.3% Conservative 40.7% 40.4% 42.2% 37.6% 41.5% 44.1% 36.1% 39.7% Bloc 32.5% 29.6% 28.7% 28.4% 32.4% 35.6% 22.4% 31.1% Green 27.6% 26.7% 25.8% 29.7% 26.5% 33.1% 22.7% 27.6% Preferred Prime Minister Harper 32.1% 29.3% 30.0% 26.4% 29.4% 32.4% 25.2% 28.5% Trudeau 29.5% 32.2% 35.2% 30.6% 30.5% 35.8% 25.8% 30.1% Mulcair 19.5% 19.8% 17.4% 18.6% 16.7% 20.5% 13.7% 18.2% May 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 6.5% 3.8% 6.7% 3.1% 5.2% Beaulieu 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 0.5% 1.5% Unsure 13.9% 13.6% 13.1% 16.0% 17.2% 20.2% 11.7% 16.3% www.nanosresearch.com 3

Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference. The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions include: a ballot question that captures the 1 st and 2 nd vote preferences; a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party; the 1 st and 2 nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and, whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another. www.nanosresearch.com 4

Party Power Index Tracking by Region www.nanosresearch.com 6

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Atlantic is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 75 70 65 62 60 50 45 Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=100) 49 47 68 54 40 35 30 25 32 29 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 7

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebec is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 65 60 50 Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=248) 58 59 57 54 45 40 39 44 35 30 25 32 31 28 28 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 8

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 65 60 58 50 45 Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=300) 57 59 56 45 40 43 35 30 33 32 25 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 9

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Prairies is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 70 65 60 54 50 45 40 Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=200) 62 63 38 51 43 35 33 30 30 25 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 10

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples. 70 65 60 60 50 50 45 British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=152) 49 57 49 40 35 38 37 30 Liberal Conservative NDP Green www.nanosresearch.com 11

Party Power Index Tracking by Age www.nanosresearch.com 12

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to 29 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 70 65 18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=205) 60 56 52 50 45 49 40 35 30 38 33 38 35 25 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 13

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 30 to 39 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 30 to 39 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=169) 60 58 60 51 50 46 45 40 37 35 30 30 51 31 25 20 24 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 14

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to 49 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for PM, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 60 60 50 40 to 49 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=208) 52 56 53 51 45 40 43 35 34 30 31 25 26 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 15

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 50 to 59 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 65 59 60 50 45 40 50 to 59 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=178) 50 49 57 53 49 35 30 25 32 30 31 27 20 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 16

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plus age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=239) 60 50 45 40 54 49 54 52 50 35 30 25 30 29 27 26 20 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 17

Party Power Index Tracking by Gender www.nanosresearch.com 18

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. 65 60 50 Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=465) 57 56 47 57 54 50 45 40 35 31 30 25 29 29 26 20 15 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 19

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. 65 60 50 Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=534) 58 49 57 51 51 45 40 47 35 30 35 33 32 30 25 20 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc www.nanosresearch.com 20

National Vote Considerations Tracking www.nanosresearch.com 24

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 6% 11% 12% 8% 10% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 7% 10% 80% 52% 50% 51% 51% 47% 54% 52% % 51% 50% 50% 50% 51% 53% 49% 53% 51% 50% 60% 40% 42% 41% 42% 39% 38% 37% 39% 37% 38% 39% 41% 42% 41% 39% 41% 43% 41% 39% 20% 0% 06 09-07 10-12 11-16 12-21 01-25 02-28 04-04 05-09 06-13 07-18 08-22 09-26 Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure 10-31 www.nanosresearch.com 25

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 12% 11% 12% 10% 13% 12% 12% 10% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 14% 11% 9% 12% 90% 80% 30% 48% 45% 48% 44% 49% 47% 49% 48% 49% 43% 46% 48% 48% 43% 45% 47% 47% 70% 60% 50% 58% 40% 30% 41% 43% 42% 43% 40% 41% 41% 39% 40% 46% 43% 43% 44% 44% 45% 44% 41% 20% 10% 0% 06 09-07 10-12 11-16 12-21 01-25 02-28 04-04 05-09 06-13 07-18 08-22 Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure 09-26 10-31 www.nanosresearch.com 26

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party 100% 12% 10% 11% 10% 12% 10% 13% 11% 13% 12% 9% 10% 10% 7% 10% 8% 8% 11% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 26% 40% 38% 39% 41% 38% 38% 42% 36% 39% 36% 37% 35% 40% 33% 33% 34% 37% 70% 60% 50% 40% 62% 50% 52% 50% 47% 53% 50% 47% 51% 50% % 53% % 54% 57% 59% 59% 52% 30% 20% 10% 0% 06 09-07 10-12 11-16 12-21 01-25 02-28 04-04 05-09 06-13 07-18 08-22 Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure 09-26 10-31 www.nanosresearch.com 27

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois 100% 13% 9% 6% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 12% 10% 7% 8% 10% 6% 6% 90% 80% Quebec only Weekly Tracking Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=248) 52% 51% 59% 60% 59% 59% 56% 58% 64% 56% 62% 59% 65% 4% 7% 10% 63% 62% 67% 68% 58% 70% 60% 50% 40% 40% 30% 35% 35% 30% 33% 32% 36% 35% 34% 31% 33% 25% 31% 32% 30% 25% 33% 20% 24% 10% 0% 06 09-07 10-12 11-16 12-21 01-25 02-28 04-04 05-09 06-13 07-18 08-22 Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure 09-26 10-31 www.nanosresearch.com 28

Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Green Party 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 16% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 8% 8% 11% 9% 8% 9% 61% 62% 66% 61% 63% 63% 62% 64% 62% 63% 62% 59% 61% 63% 65% 65% 63% 46% 70% 60% 50% 40% 38% 30% 33% 31% 20% 27% 26% 24% 30% 27% 26% 28% 24% 27% 28% 27% 26% 26% 27% 28% 10% 0% 06 09-07 10-12 11-16 12-21 01-25 02-28 04-04 05-09 06-13 07-18 08-22 Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure 09-26 10-31 www.nanosresearch.com 29

National Leadership Tracking www.nanosresearch.com 30

Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] 40% 35% 30% 25% National Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 30% 29% 20% 17% 32% 30% 20% 15% 14% 10% 6% 4% 5% 1% 1% 0% Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP) Beaulieu (Bloc) Elizabeth May (Green) Unsure www.nanosresearch.com 31

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen Harper National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% 9% 7% 9% 7% 8% 90% 38% 42% 39% 36% 41% 39% 43% 42% 40% 37% 35% 36% 37% 44% 37% 38% 33% 80% 70% 60% 50% % 50% % 54% 50% 53% 49% 50% 52% 53% 56% % 54% 49% 54% % 59% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 08-10 09-14 10-19 11-23 12-28 02-01 03-07 04-11 05-16 06-20 07-25 08-29 10-03 Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 11-07 www.nanosresearch.com 32

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas Mulcair National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 25% 27% 29% 26% 21% 25% 25% 23% 24% 23% 22% 26% 24% 24% 24% 23% 25% 90% 80% 28% 30% 31% 26% 29% 28% 29% 27% 28% 27% 26% 25% 27% 26% 23% 70% 28% 28% 60% 50% 40% 45% 44% 43% 43% 51% 49% 46% 49% 48% 50% 51% 47% 51% 52% 49% 52% 52% 30% 20% 10% 0% 08-10 09-14 10-19 11-23 12-28 02-01 03-07 04-11 05-16 06-20 07-25 08-29 Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 10-03 11-07 www.nanosresearch.com 33

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin Trudeau National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 16% 17% 18% 14% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 16% 13% 11% 12% 13% 90% 29% 32% 29% 32% 31% 31% 33% 32% 34% 34% 32% 34% 31% 25% 33% 80% 33% 24% 70% 60% 50% % 54% 58% 54% 52% 53% % 54% 53% 52% 53% 54% 52% 53% 58% 62% 54% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 08-10 09-14 10-19 11-23 12-28 02-01 03-07 04-11 05-16 06-20 07-25 08-29 10-03 Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 11-07 www.nanosresearch.com 34

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Mario Beaulieu Quebec only Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=248) 100% 37% 29% 38% 29% 28% 33% 31% 28% 30% 33% 28% 33% 37% 27% 31% 28% 32% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 46% 48% 50% 52% 49% 49% 48% 50% 45% 48% 49% 46% 50% 53% 53% 49% 40% 30% 20% 23% 25% 10% 15% 21% 21% 18% 20% 23% 21% 22% 24% 19% 17% 23% 16% 19% 19% 0% 08-10 09-14 10-19 11-23 12-28 02-01 03-07 04-11 05-16 06-20 07-25 08-29 10-03 Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 11-07 www.nanosresearch.com 35

Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 7 th, 2014, n=1,000) 100% 26% 29% 29% 28% 26% 30% 28% 27% 28% 27% 25% 28% 28% 27% 27% 30% 31% 90% 80% 70% 43% 60% 50% 41% 40% 44% 40% 40% 41% 43% 46% 39% 40% 38% 38% 38% 41% 40% 39% 40% 30% 34% 35% 34% 34% 35% 32% 30% 30% 20% 31% 30% 31% 28% 33% 30% 32% 30% 26% 10% 0% 08-10 09-14 10-19 11-23 12-28 02-01 03-07 04-11 05-16 06-20 07-25 08-29 10-03 Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 11-07 www.nanosresearch.com 36

Methodology www.nanosresearch.com 37

Survey Methodology The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending November 7 th, 2014. A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. www.nanosresearch.com 38

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