Politics: big yellow flag

March 23, 2010 Politics: big yellow flag March 23, 2010 Page 1

March 23, 2010 Page 2 About the survey This presentation is based primarily on a national survey conducted by Democracy Corps in conjunction with the Center for American Progress. The survey was of 1,016 2008 voters (171 landline, 8 cell phone weighted; 881 landline, 135 cell phone unweighted) and conducted March 15-18, 2010. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points. All data shown reflects results from 850 likely 2010 voters (871 unweighted; margin of error of 3.4 percentage points) unless otherwise noted. This presentation also features data from a national survey conducted by Democracy Corps in conjunction with Center for American Progress. The survey was of 1,001 2008 voters (8 landline, 154 cell phone weighted; 881 landline, 120 cell phone unweighted) and conducted January 7-11, 2010. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points.

March 23, 2010 Page 3 Wrong track remains stable; right direction sees small decline Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 2006 55 Right dire ction 2006 Iraq surge Wrong track 2008 Financial Crisis 2009 2008 Election 63 67 64 66 66 66 71 70 72 68 73 75 78 8085 Election 62 63 69 63 58 61 50 50 Health Care Address 55 2010 58 58 62 62 37 30 25 31 34 25 23 25 23 22 23 22 23 21 17 15 14 39 37 35 36 31 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 10 Net -18-33--36-31-35-24- - --- -35--50 - -52-58 -63-66-75-33 -11-3 -9-18 Difference -23-22-31-34 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years. Data reflects likely voters.

March 23, 2010 Page 4 Obama approval slips slowly over five months Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove 57 53 39 39 19 19 Inauguration 58 55 55 37 57 58 58 57 55 39 38 38 37 36 27 34 35 35 32 33 20 27 26 27 27 53 50 34 36 37 33 32 34 37 33 36 37 27 49 39 21 14 13 15 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys since the 2008 election. Before inauguration, question read: Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president-elect? Data represents likely 2010 voters.

March 23, 2010 Page 5 Obama remains favorable; the parties do not Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Therm. Mean Warm - Cool Barack Obama 49.1 +8 Democratic Party 35.7 Democratic Congress 50 32 40.1-11 -18 Republican Party 31.6-17 Republicans in Congress 30 40.9-18 Democratic member (named) 26 53.6 +15 Republican member (named) 32 35 49.7 +3 60 40 20 0 20 40 60

March 23, 2010 Page 6 Democratic House incumbents see mild uptick in favorability Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorability Mean Total Warm Very Warm Inauguration 62 60 59 49 49 62 59 58 58 40 61 60 60 57 57 56 54 54 53 54 40 39 39 30 26 26 27 23 26 20 25 25 27 22 21 23 24 22 23 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election..

March 23, 2010 Page 7 Republican members (named) see sudden drop in standing Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorability M ean Total Warm Very Warm Inauguration 57 58 54 57 60 60 59 58 57 59 58 56 58 55 55 57 39 40 40 37 50 35 25 23 24 20 25 22 29 20 21 20 21 22 21 20 23 22 19 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted since the 2008 election.

March 23, 2010 Page 8 Obama and Democrats hold stable, Republicans show drop Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. [Data represent MEAN ratings, likely 2010 voters] Inauguration 68 2008 65 Election 63 63 62 63 62 62 61 60 59 56 53 52 52 50 53 52 50 52 50 52 49 49 49 56 55 57 49 54 Barack Obam a Dem ocratic Party Dem ocratic Congress Republican Party Republicans in Congress 53 40 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10

March 23, 2010 Page 9 Democrats take small lead in generic ballot in public polls I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? *Note: Lines show average trends from national polls collected by pollster.com as of March 19, 2010. Most polls ask the vote in the generic. Note that this set has been filtered to exclude internet and Rasmussen polls, which have shown to be outliers.

March 23, 2010 Page 10 Congressional election tied but Republican vote drops 4 points I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Dem ocratic Candidate Republican Candidate 50 40 40 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Net Difference +5 +10 +2 +11-1 +4 +4 +2-1 -3 +1 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification with the generic the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were generic.

March 23, 2010 Page 11 Democrats lag in 2008 electorate and among likely voters I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Dem. +8 Dem. +2 Dem. +1 53 40 38 39 39 Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2008 Actual Results Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2010 Vote Among 2008 Voters Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2010 Vote Among Likely Voters *Note: Show full sample of 2008 voters includes those who voted in 2008 but who are not likely to vote in 2010. Actual results based on secretary of state reports.

March 23, 2010 Page 12 With lower turnout, Republican take lead I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Rep. +4 38 Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Core Voters *Note: Core voters are those with the highest likelihood of voting in 2010 by responding that they are almost certain to vote.

March 23, 2010 Page 13 www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +1 202 8 8300 Fax: +1 202 8 8301 Ph: + (0) 207 499 5204 Page Fax: 13 + Greenberg (0) 207 499 Quinlan 54Rosner