Canadian Views on NAFTA/USCMA Negotiations, Wave 4: Perceptions, Approval, & Preferences December 2018
Methodology Methodology/Sample: Online survey of randomly-selected sample of N=2,206 adult (18+) Canadians Field Window: December 17-21, 2018 o Previous studies were conducted October 19-24, 2018 (Wave 3) among N=1,009... July 18-25, 2018 (Wave 2) among N=1,227... and December 11-18, 2017 (Wave 1) among N=1,207. Reliability: As a guideline*, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ±2.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is larger for sub-segments. Although demographic and regional quotas were employed to ensure reliable and comparable sub-segment analysis, the data was weighted by the most current gender, age, & region Census data, to ensure the sample reflects actual population of adult Canadians. Discrepancies in totals are due to rounding. Region Number of interviews Margin of error* Atlantic Canada 103 ± 9.7% Quebec 510 ±4.3% Ontario 813 ± 3.4% Manitoba/ Saskatchewan 146 ± 8.1% Alberta 255 ±6.1% British Columbia 323 ± 5.4% Canada 2,206 ± 2.1% 2
Executive Summary After GM announced the closing of their Oshawa plant, many pundits assumed that public approval for USMCA would plummet. However, our latest survey on this issue finds that approval ratings for USMCA and the Trudeau Government s handling of the negotiations have declined slightly since October 2018 with uncertainty about the deal increasing more than disapproval. Canadians who hold an opinion on the matter* are split as about half approve of the USMCA deal (48%) and the Trudeau Government s handling of the negotiations (50%). Compared to October, a slightly slimmer plurality (35%; -4) of Canadians 45% of those with an opinion* feel that the Trudeau Government got the best possible deal, but the proportion who feel they should have continued negotiating for a better deal (31%) remains unchanged. Instead, there are slight increases in the proportions who are opposed to any free trade agreement (12%; +2) or express uncertainty in their opinion on the matter (22%; +2). *Reflecting the public s lower level of engagement/comfort on this subject matter, about 20- of the public tends to respond with an answer of Don t Know/Unsure in all surveys about free trade and foreign policy matters. 3
Approval of USMCA falls (35%; -7), but disapproval does not increase uncertainty does (28%; +6). Notably, about half (48%) of those with an opinion approve of the deal Majority or plurality approval, though lower than Oct 2018, continues in Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba/Saskatchewan, while Alberta and Atlantic Canada switch sides. Quebec residents continue to disapprove although notably less so than in October. Approval Ratings: New Free Trade Agreement: USMCA Dec 2018 Oct 2018 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Total 28% 12% 29% 5% 35% 37% 42% 36% BC 32% 6% 26% 29% 7% 36% 31% 46% 29% AB 28% 12% 26% 27% 7% 34% 38% 44% 32% MB/SK 31% 7% 33% 4% 37% 32% 42% 35% ON 10% 33% 7% 40% 35% 51% 28% QUE 28% 19% 26% 3% 28% 44% 24% 56% ATL 34% 24% 3% 24% 42% 35% 33% DON T KNOW STRONGLY DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE STRONGLY APPROVE A1. As you may know, during the last Presidential election in the U.S., President Donald Trump promised to negotiate a new version of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or cancel it entirely if the U.S. cannot get a deal that he felt was better than the existing agreement. As a consequence, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico spent more than a year negotiating in order to create a new, updated version of NAFTA. A couple of months ago, they announced that they had agreed on a deal a revised version of NAFTA that will replace NAFTA and be given a new name. It will likely be called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). They recently had a signing ceremony at the G8 meeting in Mexico. Based on what you know about it overall, do you approve or disapprove of this new free trade agreement? (Base N=2206) 4
Expectations of USMCA impact hold largely steady since October, with similar positive results and slightly higher negative results Since October 2018, there are no changes in expectations of USCMA s positive impact upon Canada or the provinces. However, there is a slight increase in those feeling USMCA is bad for Canada (38%; +4), and bad for their province (41%; +5). Residents of Ontario and BC are slightly more likely to feel that USMCA will be good for Canada and their province. In Quebec, Alberta and Atlantic Canada, clear pluralities expect it to be bad for the country and their province. The proportion of Canadians who feel USMCA is good for the U.S. falls 8 points from 69% to 61%. Good/Bad Will USMCA Be Good/Bad For? Good/Bad Oct 18 BC Alb MB/SK Ont Que Atl 30% 33% 27% 30% 32% 27% 22% Canada 17% 38% 5% 11% 30% 34% 31% 42% 32% 37% 40% 46% 27% 29% 23% 27% 30% 22% 17% Your Province 41% 6% 8% 26% 36% 31% 49% 34% 39% 47% 45% 69% 60% 65% 61% 61% 63% 54% The US 17% 12% 5% 5% 61% 5% 13% 8% 12% 13% 11% 19% 35% Mexico 29% 4% 8% 34% 28% 36% 34% 39% 31% 27% 22% 31% 30% 26% 28% 29% 36% DON T KNOW A2. And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for? (Base N=2206) BAD NEITHER GOOD NOR BAD BOTH GOOD AND BAD GOOD 5
Four-in-ten (43%; -4) 50% of those with an opinion approve of Trudeau Government s job performance in NAFTA/USMCA negotiations. Similar proportion (42%; +3) disapprove Approval for the job done by the Trudeau government drops 4 points since October (43%; -4), such that opinions are divided equally between approval and disapproval (42%; +3). A plurality of residents in BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada still approve of the Government s job performance on this file. Although approval ratings have declined across the provinces, the exception is Quebec where approval has increased by 8 points, although a plurality still disapproves. Approval Ratings: Trudeau Government s Job Performance in NAFTA/USMCA Negotiations Approve Dec 18 Oct 18 Jul 18 Dec 17 Total 15% 24% 34% 9% 43% 47% 56% 45% BC 13% 22% 37% 10% 47% 61% 52% 42% AB 16% 32% 23% 8% 31% 38% 45% 33% MB/ SK 15% 28% 30% 9% 39% 46% 45% 39% ON 14% 15% 24% 36% 10% 46% 53% 58% 47% QUE 17% 27% 33% 6% 39% 31% 64% 50% ATL 14% 13% 24% 38% 11% 49% 50% 64% 50% DON T KNOW STRONGLY DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE STRONGLY APPROVE A3. And, based on what you know... overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the federal Liberal Government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did in these negotiations? (Base N=2206) In Wave 1 & 2, this question referred to ongoing NAFTA negotiations. In Wave 3 and 4, it referred to the completed negotiations, with the new free trade agreement being tentatively named USMCA. 6
A plurality (35%; -4) 45% of those with opinion feel Trudeau Government got best possible deal, whereas 31% want better deal and 12% (+2) are opposed to any free trade agreement Although lower than in October 2018, clear pluralities in Ontario and BC continue to feel that the Trudeau Government got the best possible deal. A plurality in Quebec still feel the government should have continued negotiating for a better deal, but more now feel they should have walked away (17%; +8). Opinions are split in Alberta and Atlantic Canada. However, in Atlantic Canada, there is a notable rise among those feeling the government should have continued negotiations (38%; +13) since the last wave conducted in Oct 2018. View Closest to Own (Dec 2018) View closest to own Oct 2018 Walked Away Continued negotiation Got best possible deal Total 22% 12% 31% 35% 10% 31% 39% BC 27% 6% 30% 37% 11% 24% 43% AB 20% 16% 31% 33% 12% 33% 40% MB/SK 22% 9% 31% 38% 10% 32% 35% ON 11% 29% 39% 8% 28% 44% QUE 17% 34% 29% 9% 41% 30% ATL 4% 38% 37% 12% 41% DON'T KNOW/ UNSURE SHOULD HAVE WALKED AWAY FROM THESE NEGOTIATIONS AND LET NAFTA BE CANCELLED WITHOUT JOINING ANY NEW OR REVISED FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. AND MEXICO SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED NEGOTIATING FOR A BETTER DEAL FOR CANADA, EVEN IF IT RISKED NOT HAVING ANY FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. AND MEXICO, AND THE U.S. PUTTING TARIFFS ON THE CANADIAN AUTO SECTOR A4. And, based on what you know... overall, do you feel that the Justin Trudeau Liberal Government... (Base N=2206) GOT THE BEST POSSIBLE DEAL FOR CANADA, UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES 7
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