Leadership: Investing in the Past or the Future? Keith Grint Warwick University

Leadership: Investing in the Past or the Future? Keith Grint Warwick University

21 st Century: a time of unprecedented change therefore it s time to invest in the future? But when was there ever a time of either precedented change or stability? 1780-1850: the chaos of the Industrial Revolution, Urbanization, American & French Revolutions 1850s the chaos of European Revolutions, The American Civil War 1860 1910: the chaos of Colonial Empires 1914-1918: The chaos of the First World War 1919-1940: The Great Depression and Revolutions 1940-1945: The Second World War and Revolutions 1950s-the Korean War and the Consumer Revolution 1960s: Decolonization, the Cold War, student rebellion, Vietnam 1970s: Vietnam, collapse of social democracy & the rise of Reaganism and Thatcherism 1980s: The chaos of neo-liberalism 1990s; The collapse of Communism; First Iraq War (Gulf War) 2000s: The Second Iraq War; Afghanistan & the age of Terror 2010: Blackpool promoted to Premiership 2011: Blackpool demoted to the Championship and the Age of Austerity follows thereafter

So, if the 21 st Century is not a time of unprecedented change is there a pattern that might help us determine what to expect?

1. Kondratiev thought so;

2. Barley & Kunda (1992) Design & Devotion, ASQ 37(3) Economic Longwaves S 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Industrial Betterment Scientific Management Human Relations Systems Rationalization Organizational Culture Waves of Theorizing Expansion/Rational Surge Contraction/Normative Surge

TIME 3: Increasingly Rational Leadership over Time 2000+ Distributed Leadership Followership Identity & Authentic Leadership 1990s New Public Management BPR Traits & Competencies Benchmarking Targets, Psychometrics 1950s 60s Contingency Theory, Systems Analysis Self-Actualization: Maslow & McGregor 1930-40s Hawthorne/Human Relations = Mass + leadership traits + charismatics 1970s-80s Corporate Culture Quality Circles TQM Delayering Transformational Leadership 1910-20s Taylorism & Fordism Scientific Management 1900s Rule of thumb Great Man RATIONALITY

TIME SCIENCE 4 Binary Model B Linguistic Structuralism: Science V Culture 1990s BPR, Psychometrics Competencies, EQ, Benchmarking Targets New Public Management 1950s 1960s Contingency Theory, Systems Analysis Self-Actualization: Maslow & McGregor Distributed Leadership Followership Identity Authentic Leadership 1980s Corporate Culture Transformational Leadership Quality Circles TQM Delayering 2000+ 1930-40s Hawthorne/Human Relations Mass + leadership traits + charismatics CULTURE 1910-20s Taylorism & Fordism Scientific Management 1900s Rule of thumb Great Man

5: Zeitgeist Political Events Political.. Zeitgeist Leadership Model TIME Terrorism, Uncertainty, Fundamentalism 2000 + Distributed or Centralized Leadership? Followership, Identity, Authentic Leadership Rise of Bush & Blair 1990-2000 New Public Management, BPR, Competencies, Benchmarking Targets, Psychometrics Globalization & Rise of Japan, post Cold War, Thatcherism US domination & Cold War Depression, Communism, Fascism 1980-90s 1950-70s 1930-40s Transformational Leadership, Corporate Culture, Quality Circles, Tough Love, TQM, Delayering Contingency Theory, Systems Analysis, Self-Actualization: Maslow & McGregor Hawthorne/Human Relations, Mass + traits + charismatics Global Competition, 1WW 1910-20s Scientific Management, Taylorism & Fordism Industrialization - 1900s 1900s: Rule of thumb, Great Man

5: Zeitgeist Political Events Political.. Zeitgeist Leadership Model TIME Terrorism, Uncertainty, Fundamentalism 2000 + Distributed or Centralized Leadership? Followership, Identity, Mission-Command Rise of Bush & Blair 1990-2000 New Public Management, BPR, Competencies, Benchmarking Targets, Psychometrics Globalization & Rise of Japan, post Cold War, Thatcherism US domination & Cold War Depression, Communism, Fascism 1980-90s 1950-70s 1930-40s Transformational Leadership, Corporate Culture, Quality Circles, Tough Love, TQM, Delayering Contingency Theory, Systems Analysis, Self-Actualization: Maslow & McGregor Hawthorne/Human Relations, Mass + traits + charismatics Global Competition, 1WW 1910-20s Scientific Management, Taylorism & Fordism Industrialization - 1900s 1900s: Rule of thumb, Great Man

Scientific Management, Taylorism & Fordism

5: Zeitgeist Political Events Political.. Zeitgeist Leadership Model TIME Terrorism, Uncertainty, Fundamentalism 2000 + Distributed or Centralized Leadership? Followership, Identity, Mission-Command Rise of Bush & Blair 1990-2000 New Public Management, BPR, Competencies, Benchmarking Targets, Psychometrics Globalization & Rise of Japan, post Cold War, Thatcherism US domination & Cold War Depression, Communism, Fascism 1980-90s 1950-70s 1930-40s Transformational Leadership, Corporate Culture, Quality Circles, Tough Love, TQM, Delayering Contingency Theory, Systems Analysis, Self-Actualization: Maslow & McGregor Hawthorne/Human Relations, Mass + traits + charismatics Global Competition, 1WW 1910-20s Scientific Management, Taylorism & Fordism Industrialization - 1900s 1900s: Rule of thumb, Great Man

Hawthorne/Human Relations, Mass + traits + charismatics

Hawthorne/Human Relations, Mass + traits + charismatics The experiments highlighted the human factor and how important this is for work effort and therefore efficiency and productivity The human factor indicate that people are motivated by social or cultural factors as well as (or sometimes more than) economic incentives They have social needs and interests (e.g. needs of affiliation, being safe and looked after) which need to be considered by managers Latent energy and non-logical sentiments of employees could be tapped by (logical) management if employees treated properly

Even if there is a pattern does the context DETERMINE the leadership required?

Ideologues & Machiavellians: the role of leaders in history Mitchell s Agents of Atrocity Machiavellians aim: POWER: Obtain/Retain Power - Cesare Borgia, Cromwell Ideologues aim: DOGMA: defined by internal logic of belief system Destroy all non-believers, infidels, counter-revolutionaries, the other Grand Inquisitor of Spanish Inquisition, Lenin, Osama bin Laden, Hitler Civil Wars invariably bloody but not all are barbaric why? Mitchell: motives of leaders not the situation

More Violence Mitchell s Agents of Atrocity Inquisitor/Ideologue Tolerator More threats to power

7: Maybe there is no pattern; it s just chaos: one damned thing after another If this is the case: if there really is no pattern to the past then planning for the future becomes much more difficult: Can you imagine a world where we could not predict the weather, the economy, war, outbreaks of disease etc.? Could we cope with that anxiety? Wouldn t we need to pretend to ourselves that someone was responsible? Wouldn t we need leaders to take that on board? And wouldn t they need scapegoats to explain their inability to control events?

SACRIFICE & SCAPEGOATS Abraham Lindow Man AKA Pete Moss Aztecs Who else can we blame? Women The Jews The Devil Witches Catholics, Protestants, Muslims Romanians & Bulgarians Them Anybody but us Greek: Pharmakoi

Isn t the wisdom that we need not the latest objective competency framework or personality test or measure of authenticity or charisma etc., but a recognition that: 1. We cannot control or predict everything & often the most important things are beyond us 2. This anxiety generates a dangerous desire for leadership i.e., solutions/responsibility 3. In turn, generates a requirement for a sin eater of some kind, and as the Milgram Experiments showed over 50 years ago: most of us are capable of terrible things 4. Thus the dangers of leadership require us to be constantly vigilant about it 5. Ultimately the most dangerous role for leaders is not to find a scapegoat but to reflect the responsibility for our most difficult or Wicked Problems back where it belongs with us. Or as Heifetz captures so well: the role of leadership is to disappoint their followers at a a rate they can manage 6. If the future is unpredictable then perhaps we need to worry more about the past

George Santayana once said: Those who cannot learn from the past are doomed to repeat it It s a good quote about the nature of time, but not the best; indeed there are two better ones: From Marx (Groucho not the other one): I intend to live forever...

and from Woody Allen: I don t want to achieve immortality through my works,