AFGHANISTAN Humanitarian Crises Analysis - 2015 January 2015 Each year, Sida conducts a humanitarian allocation exercise in which a large part of its humanitarian budget is allocated to emergencies worldwide. This allocation takes place in the beginning of the year as to ensure predictability for humanitarian organisations and to allow for best possible operational planning. In an effort to truly adhere to the humanitarian principles Sida bases its allocation decisions on a number of objective indicators of which the most important are related to the number of affected people, vulnerability of affected people and level of funding in previous years. One of the indicators is also related to forgotten crises in order to ensure sufficient funding also to low profile crises. Besides this initial allocation, another part of the humanitarian budget is set aside as an emergency reserve for sudden onset emergencies and deteriorating humanitarian situations. This reserve allows Sida to quickly allocate funding to any humanitarian situation throughout the year, including additional funding to Afghanistan. 1. CRISIS OVERVIEW Afghanistan has been subject to a protracted and complex crisis for over 35 years with great humanitarian distress as a direct consequence. Almost all aspects of society are severely affected, with the country scoring very low in almost all key human development categories, such as health, access to water and sanitation, literacy and human rights. In 2014, there was a rise in violence and civilian casualties due the uncertain political situation marked by a disputed presidential election and difficulties in forming a government, but also due to drawdown of international military forces and its economic impact. The number of civilian casualties recorded by UNAMA in the first eight months of 2014 (6,800) was 15 percent higher than in the same period in 2013. Furthermore, the records show an 18 percent increase in the number of women and a 24 percent increase in the number of children killed or injured compared to the same period last year. The acute needs of the conflict affected communities are heightened due to disruptions in basic health and other services. Such constraints contribute to the low immunisation coverage as well as the increased morbidity and mortality risk, especially for children and pregnant women. This is a country where on average only one health care provider serves 10,000 people, substantially below the minimum standard of 22 health care workers per 10,000. Women s access to health care is particularly poor as there is only one health care professional per 30,000 Afghan women. The protracted conflict in Afghanistan has resulted in one of the largest refugee crisis in the world. Following decades of war millions of Afghans have fled their homes to seek refuge mainly in the neighbouring countries of Pakistan and Iran, or countries outside the region. Afghanistan is also a recipient country for refugees and in 2014 there was a new caseload of Pakistani refugees settling in Khost and Paktika provinces following the military operation (15 June) in North Waziristan. As of 27 September, a total of 33,026 families (25,123 families in Khost; 7,903 families in Paktika) had been registered by United Nations Agency for Refugees (UNHCR). The security situation deteriorated further in 2014 comparing to previous years. Large scale offensives on district administrative centres and security checkpoints, and an increased use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) resulted in considerable civilian casualties. The humanitarian community predicts a steady increase in humanitarian needs in 2015, reiterating the need for continued humanitarian interventions. Afghanistan is also prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes, droughts, floods, storms, landslides, avalanches and extreme cold. In 2014 the humanitarian community assisted over 120,000 people following the heavy rains in April and May. At least 30,000 people still remain without shelter across 8 provinces. The country annually anticipates an estimated burden of approximately 250,000 natural disaster affected victims based on the number exposed to floods and landslides. The first rains of the year starts as early as mid-february and can continue (with breaks) until mid-july with additional rains in September. This is the time when there is heightened risk of flash floods and landslides. The impact of flash floods usually does not attract much attention and can easily get forgotten since many of these floods occur in rural valleys spread across the country. Certain villages can be subject to floods more than once in the same year. Agriculture infrastructures, irrigational methods and canals are usually very basic making the communities more vulnerable to natural hazards. In certain parts of the country over-grazing and the removal of wild shrub (to use as fuel or to prepare land for rain-fed cultivation), deforestation, and unplanned expansion of residential areas leave communities at risk of recurrent natural disasters. Casualties due to natural disasters are reported yearly in in Afghanistan. Large proportions of land are rain-fed or left uncultivated because communities lack resources to redirect or lift water up from lower altitudes despite close proximity to running rivers and streams; consequently, loss of agricultural livelihood due to drought is common. Certain parts of the country experience drought or mild dryness 1
every few years. Extreme temperatures and heavy snowfall leave many vulnerable communities in isolation for lengthy periods of time and in life threatening situations. 1.1 Geographical areas and affected population Extreme poverty and vulnerability is widespread and the so called heat map in the Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) demonstrates this very well. Although conflicts and natural hazards affect the entire country the North and North Eastern provinces are generally more prone to natural disasters whilst the Southern and eastern provinces are more affected by conflict. Provinces in the West, Central highlands and North West are usually affected by drought or dryness. Larger cities are hubs for IDPs, refugee returnees and those displaced as a result of general poverty. Examples are Kabul, Jalalabad and Herat cities. Among the ten provinces with highest humanitarian needs; five (Kunar, Nangarhar, Laghman, Paktika, Nuristan) are in east while the rest are in the south, west and central parts of the country. People living in conflict zones, people under threat from seasonal natural hazards mainly floods and landslides, CI IDPs (Conflict Induced Internally Displaced Persons), people with food insecurity, malnourished people or in risk of becoming malnourished, returnees and refugees are usually the most vulnerable groups of population. IDPs There are 688,000 CIIDPs recorded out of which 75,000 were displaced in 2014. Due to insecurity, humanitarian agencies cannot reach and record the full extent of internal displacement. The actual numbers may likely be much higher. Women, children, the elderly, the disabled and chronically ill are the most vulnerable groups of displaced populations. IDPs are also exposed to mines and explosive remnants of war (ERWs). The improbability of returning and the very limited opportunities for local integration are an overarching challenge to displaced Afghanis. The country s first IDP policy was endorsed by the Afghan government in November 2013. Its implementation remains to be seen and will largely depend on political will and allocation of resources. Children at risk (malnutrition) According to the 2013 National Nutrition Survey approximately 1.2 million children under five-years of age require treatment for acute malnutrition annually. Of these children, approximately 500 000 will require treatment for Sever Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 700 000 will need treatment for moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Around 10 percent of the total number of SAM cases suffers from medical complications requiring specialized inpatient care. According to Nutrition Cluster, there is a close association between insecurity and high prevalence of malnutrition. There is similar correlation between inadequate hygiene, sanitation and clean water as well as rates of female illiteracy and lack of female education, and prevalence of malnutrition. Returnees The number of returnees is at an all-time low since the beginning of the voluntary repatriation programme in 2002. From January to July 2014, a total of 10 055 Afghan refugees were voluntarily repatriated to Afghanistan. In comparison, during the same period in 2013, 28 800 Afghans returned. Areas with the highest number of returns include the eastern border provinces (Nangarhar and Laghman), central region provinces and major urban centres, Kabul City primarily. There have been indications of a plan to deport undocumented Afghans living in Pakistan. Undocumented Afghans living in Pakistan are usually amongst the most vulnerable, and large scale deportation or pressure to move back to Afghanistan will pose serious challenges to them and humanitarian agencies. Refugees - There are 1.6 million registered Afghan refugees and an estimated 1.5 million undocumented Afghanis in Pakistan, and over 824 000 Afghan refugees in Iran. As a result of conflict and military operations in the North Waziristan, around 120 000 Pakistani refugees have been displaced into Afghanistan in 2014. The majority of them are staying in Afghan host communities with very limited resources. Highlights 7.4 million people are in need of humanitarian aid. 3.8 million people to be reached out to through the SRP. 1.3 Risks and threats There are constant changes and uncertainties related to security, political stability, financing of government expenditures and general economic growth. The operating environment remains complex and unpredictable. A realistic but not alarmist outlook for 2015 includes a steady increase in humanitarian needs arising from widespread but low-intense conflict, government resources for the delivery of its planned development goals are likely to decrease and humanitarian space is likely to continue to shrink. The Afghanistan Humanitarian Risk Register (Annex to HNO) identifies and ranks all risks from medium to low including: an increase in conflict, increase in attacks on humanitarian agencies, drastic deterioration in economic food access, disease outbreaks and natural disasters. 2
All humanitarian actors are cautious and usually plan for different scenarios for which they need certain flexibility from donors. In the first three quarters of 2014, a total of 174 attacks against humanitarian personnel, assets and facilities were reported. Another risk in 2015 is that the levels of funding will decrease even further. A generic risk in all countries with humanitarian needs is the risk of corruption. With general challenges in all societal pillars including law, order, stability and justice - the area of checks and balances also becomes fragile. Afghanistan ranks on number 172 on Transparency Internationals Index for 2014. 1.3 Strategic objectives identified in the Strategic Response Plan (SRP) The strategic objectives of the SRP are the following: 1. Excess morbidity and mortality reduced 2. Conflict related deaths and impairment reduced 3. Timely response to affected populations Geographic areas of priority are identified in the Humanitarian Needs Overview and ranked using the Overall Need and Vulnerability Index (the so called Heat Map). Priority areas are those most affected by conflict, natural disasters, displacement, and malnutrition. They are largely, though not exclusively in the South, Southeast, North, Northeast, and central regions. The sectors prioritized are Food Security and Agricultural Cluster (FSAC), Nutrition, ES & NFIs (emergency shelter and non-food items), Protection, Health, WASH (water and sanitation) and multi-sectorial support to refugees and returnees. According to the humanitarian community there are 7.4 million people in need of humanitarian aid whilst the SRP targets 3.8 million for live saving interventions. It is challenging for humanitarian actors to be present in areas most in need of humanitarian assistance due to access and security constraints. Some of the provinces that ranked high on the heat map do not have enough humanitarian actors present. 2. IN COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CAPACITIES 2.1 National and local capacities and constraints Government capacity to respond to emergencies remains weak with ANDMA (Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority) being one of the weakest branches of government. However, the capacity at provincial ANDMA and PDMCs (Provincial Disaster Management Committees) can vary from province to province. The government has many different and contesting priorities with dwindling financial resources. National NGOs have greater access to remote and insecure areas. However, overall NGO capacity remains limited. 2.2 International operational capacities and constraints Humanitarian coordination is led by the Humanitarian Coordinator (HC) with the support of UN OCHA and the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT). The HCT consist of UN agencies, international and national NGOs, and donors. Coordination is facilitated through technical clusters (ES&NFI, FSAC, Health, Nutrition, Protection, and WASH) and sectorial working groups on Aviation, Multi-Sector and Cash Voucher. OCHA has continuously improved its performance since 2012 both in terms of coordination and collection of needs-based humanitarian data. The CHAP process has been more transparent and inclusive with regular discussions in various fora. The CHAP for 2015 has been further improved with visual presentation of indicators for mortality, morbidity and vulnerability. According to FTS, major humanitarian donors in 2014 were United States, Japan, European Commission, United Kingdom, Canada and Sweden. As indicated earlier in this document, Afghanistan is a difficult working environment with a complex and protracted humanitarian crisis. The country is unique in that many traditional donors are also involved militarily in the country. Despite improvements in the quality of lives of many Afghans in some areas, most notably in access to health and education, water and reduction of maternal mortality, millions of people still remain in vulnerable, life-threatening situations. In this situation it is of great importance that development actors design programs and projects that focus on the most vulnerable, deprived and marginalized to enhance and sustain their coping mechanisms, this to curb devastating impact of shocks both natural and conflict related. The funding of development aid and the number of actors are most likely to decrease in the future and given this is of even greater importance to address the challenge of finding synergies between humanitarian and development interventions. UNOCHA and HCT and other actors have come a long way in distinguishing and prioritizing real live-threatening needs from general humanitarian distress and needs caused by wider poverty. The CHAP 2015 further streamlines the response to only include life-saving activities; otherwise the identified needs would be much higher and require a much higher appeal. Similarly, the Common Humanitarian Fund (CHF) have proved to focus only on life-saving needs having to make the difficult decisions of prioritization with limited resources and an increase in needs. 3
As resources dwindle, it is important to strengthen the operational effectiveness which the donor community has become increasingly aware of. One concrete way of doing when it comes to malnutrition is for humanitarians to concentrate on responding to pockets of acute malnutrition above emergency level and not the root causes which are better addressed by development actors issue (including major issues of stunting). Within the framework of a nutrition project funded by the CHF the issue of the effectiveness of national health service delivery project (Basic Package of Health Services) was raised and that BPHS includes components of nutrition that needs to be further strengthen. In 2010, the World Bank reported that only 38 percent of BPHS facilities were providing complete services. Sida s partners also informed us about lack of capacity and knowledge of nutrition at all levels of the society including at the government. 3. SIDA s HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN 3.1. Sida s role In 2014, Sida engaged in a multi-sectorial support covering mainly sectors such as food security, WASH, protection, nutrition, health and coordination. Sweden got a long tradition of funding humanitarian projects in Afghanistan and it continues to be a key donor in the country; in 2014 Sweden was the 7 th largest donor to Afghanistan according to the financial tracking system (FTS), it got humanitarian staff deployed at the Embassy and it is an appreciated humanitarian actor in the country. Sweden is also a major contributor to the Common Humanitarian Fund (CHF) to which it allocated 80 M SEK in 2014, making Sweden one of the largest donors to the fund. Sida is in addition a member of the Advisory Board to the CHF and one of the main donors to the fund besides DFID. 3.2. Response Priorities 2015 Sida will focus on the needs identified in CHAP 2015 i.e. those affected by conflict, malnourished children, foodinsecure people, needs of the Pakistani refugees, Afghan returnees and children affected by preventable diseases. Sida is in a good position to do so through its existing partnerships in Afghanistan. Sida s geographical priorities will be guided by the heat map in the HNO. Sida will advocate to all of its partners to focus on (and try to establish) presence in the provinces with highest needs and vulnerabilities. It is not easy to establish presence in new areas; nevertheless partners will be encouraged to be flexible in the planning to enable them to quickly move into areas with greater needs as the conflict pattern changes. Gender equality remains a huge challenge in Afghanistan despite some recent progress in promoting the issue. All partners will be required to prioritize women, children, the elderly, disabled and other marginalized groups in their activities. Project proposals should be explicit on how they deal with these vulnerable groups, especially women. It is a minimum requirement that partners make use of the gender marker in their proposals. Baseline surveys should include disaggregated data focusing on marginalized and most vulnerable groups/category of populations. The recurrent floods cause damage not only to live and livelihoods but also to development infrastructure (including schools and hospitals) every year. Reducing the impact of floods will highly reduce the need for humanitarian assistance and would make the operations more cost-efficient. All Sida development interventions related to rural development, especially investments in the field of improving local economies, irrigation, and agriculture can be linked to resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). 3.3. Partners OCHA: Given the increasing humanitarian operational challenges and management of CHF, it is recommended to maintain a funding level of app. 2m MSEK. ACF: Sida has long partnership with ACF and the organization is seen as a respected and leading actor in the field of nutrition and food security. The contribution will target nutrition and food security crisis in Ghor and Samangan provinces. It is recommended to maintain a funding level of 8m MSEK. NRC: The contribution will target vulnerable refugee returnees and IDPs with shelter, WASH, ER and Information, counselling and legal assistance (ICLA). It is recommended to maintain a funding level of app. 8m MSEK. DACAAR: In the sector of WASH, Sida sees the Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees (DACAAR) as an efficient partner with a strong field presence in many parts of the country. Through its contribution in 2015, Sida intend to phase-out its support to DACAAR. It is recommended to maintain a funding level of app. 5m MSEK. ICRC: The issue of civilian casualties and increased conflict has been mentioned in previous sections as well as its impact on humanitarian activities and actors. It remains important to support the unique role of ICRC/ARCS in 2015. It is recommended to maintain a funding level of app. 20m MSEK. 4
SRC/ARCS: Lack of access to health has been mentioned earlier. SRC will focus on supporting ARCS to deliver their community based health program. Capacity building of ARCS to deliver humanitarian support is another component. It is recommended to maintain a funding level of app. 10m MSEK. CHF 2014 was the first year CHF was tested in Afghanistan. Projects are still being implemented. There had been two standard and two reserve allocations during the year. Funding was allocated towards life-saving health and nutrition activities in conflict-affected and under-served areas; food assistance and emergency shelter for refugees in the South East together with demining activities; cash for fuel in support of flood affected families during the winter months; as well as improved information management and assessments, and humanitarian air services. CHF proved to be key funding instrument enabling the HCT to respond to live saving activities that would otherwise most likely be left unaddressed. The fund is well-managed by the OCHA country office and the allocation process is perceived as transparent. OCHA has updated the Accountability Framework and allocation guidelines. All allocations had been well informed by technical and practical information from relevant clusters. Due to limited size of the fund, difficult decisions had to be made during the year regarding both sector and geographic coverage; however the fund did manage to focus on life-saving objective in all of its allocations. Considering all the security-influenced objectives of different actors, it remains important for the fund to continue in 2015 to allow HCT collectively to focus on life-saving allocations in according to humanitarian principles only. It is recommended to maintain a high funding level and thus it is recommended to allocate 70 MSEK. Recommended partner for Sida support Sector/focus of work (incl. integrated or multi sectorial programming ) Proposed amount NRC Shelter / Emergency Response 8 000 000 SRC/ARCS Health, capacity building 10 000 000 ACF Nutrition 8 000 000 ICRC Protection 20 000 000 DACAAR Wash 5 000 000 OCHA Coordination 2 000 000 CHF Multi-sector 70 000 000 TOTAL 123 000 000 SOURCES Global Appeal 2015, International Committee for the Red Cross Humanitarian Needs Overview for Afghanistan 2015, UN/OCHA Afghanistan Strategic Response Plan 2015, UN/OCHA Humanitarian Implementation Plan 2015 for Afghanistan, ECHO 5