Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 1 of 10 EXHIBIT 10
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 2 of 10 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR MARYLAND ----------------------------------------------------------x O. JOHN BENISEK, et al., Plaintiffs, v. Civil Case No. 13-3233 LINDA H. LAMONE, et al.,, Defendants. ----------------------------------------------------------x SUPPLEMENTAL DECLARATION OF WILLIAM S. COOPER WILLIAM S. COOPER, acting in accordance with 28 U.S.C. 1746, Federal Rules of Civil Procedure 26(a)(2)(B) and 26(e), and Federal Rules of Evidence 702 and 703, does hereby declare and say 1. My name is William S. Cooper. As a private consultant, I serve as a demographic and redistricting expert for the Defendants. I previously submitted a declaration for the Defendants in this case dated May 6, 2017. I was deposed by the attorneys for the Plaintiffs on May 23, 2017. 2. I submit this supplemental declaration in response to two concerns raised by the Defendants attorneys at my May 23 deposition (1) the hypothetical 8-0 Plan described in my May 6 Declaration is not a zero deviation plan and (2) the
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 3 of 10 hypothetical 8-0 Plan does not account for duplicate vote counts found in the dataset I relied upon from the Harvard Election Data Archive. 3. With respect to the zero deviation concern, I explained in my May 6 Declaration and at my May 23 deposition that given the hypothetical nature of the 8-0 Plan there is no point in zeroing out the district deviations. This is because the necessary population changes are so small that there would be no meaningful partisan effect.1 4. With respect to the precinct-level 2008 Presidential vote count discrepancy found in the Harvard Election dataset, I was unaware of the issue until I received the reply report filed on the evening of May 22 by Dr. Michael McDonald. Because I was en route to my May 23 deposition, I did not have an opportunity to make adjustments to correct the errors prior to the deposition. 5. The attached Zero Deviation 8-0 Plan removes duplicate vote counts in 11 consolidated Montgomery County precincts. (See maps in Exhibits A-1, A-2, and summary district statistics in Exhibit A-3.) These corrections are identical to the precincts identified by Dr. McDonald in his April 7 report 2 except that consolidated Montgomery Precinct 5-009 merges 5-022 and 5-009. Precinct 5-005, which Dr. McDonald consolidates with 5-022, does not change according to the 1 See Cooper May 6 Declaration, 16. 2 See McDonald, April 7, 2017 Report p. 27. 2
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 4 of 10 official Maryland 2010 precinct boundary file I used. 3 6. The corrections I made to account for the duplicate vote count in the 11 consolidated precincts have a very minor downward impact on the 2008 Democratic vote percentages in CD 6 (-0.7%) and hypothetical Districts 2 (-0.2%) and District 8 (-.04%) of the Zero Deviation 8-0 Plan. 4 Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. 1746, I declare under penalty of perjury of the laws of the United States that the foregoing is true and correct according to the best of my knowledge, information and belief. Executed on June_1_, 2017 WILLIAM S. COOPER 3 The 2010 Maryland precinct shapefile, which I used as an overlay in preparing the 8-0 Plan, is available for download at http//planning.maryland.gov/redistricting/2010/precinct.shtml 4 Compare attached Exhibit A-3 with Cooper May 6, 2017 Declaration, Exhibit B-3. 3
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 5 of 10 Exhibit A-1
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 6 of 10 ALLEGANY WASHINGTON FREDERICK BALTIMORE CARROLL 02 GARRETT 08 06 HOWARD MONTGOMERY BALTIMORE CITY 03 CECIL HARFORD 01 KENT 07 QUEEN ANNE'S ANNE ARUNDEL CAROLINE PRINCE GEORGE'S TALBOT CALVERT Maryland U.S. House Map Layers 05 CHARLES 04 Water Area County DORCHESTER WICOMICO ST. MARY'S 2011 Incumbents WORCESTER District 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 10 SOMERSET 20 30 Miles 8-0 Plan -- Zero Deviation
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 7 of 10 Exhibit A-2
NEW WINDSOR 31 OUNT AIRY 70 27 26 CARROLL 97 91 ELDERSBURG SYKESVILLE 32 140 HOWARD Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 8 of 10 30 REISTERSTOWN OWINGS MILLS RANDALLSTOWN ELLICOTT CITY 29 MILFORD MILL 40 795 WOODLAWN PIKESVILLE COCKEYSVILLE BALTIMORE TOWSON 02 LUTHERVILLE-TIMONIUM HAMPTON 1 695 83 147 144 139 BALTIMORE 395 145 DUNDALK FALLSTON PERRY HALL ROSSVILLE BEL AIR NORTH KINGSVILLE WHITE MARSH MIDDLE RIVER BEL AIR SOUTH EDGEWOOD ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND ARBUTUS EDGEMERE 100 195 BROOKLYN PARK CHESTERTOWN AYTONSVILLE COLUMBIA ELKRIDGE LINTHICUM Maryland U.S. 20 House KINGSTOW FERNDALE Map Layers Y VILLAGE BROOKEVILLE 03 108 295 Water Area 06 07 170 10 Highway OLNEY SAVAGE-GUILFORD 173 County REDLAND NORTH LAUREL SEVERN GREEN HAVEN ROCK HALL 2011 Incumbents 97 BURTONSVILLE 97 WEST LAUREL FORT MEADE 2 District 1 01 LAKE SHORE ASPEN HILL 650 SEVERNA PARK FAIRLAND 198 177 02 355 03 08 SOUTH LAUREL WHEATON-GLENMONT ODENTON 95 32 04 05 NORTH BETHESDAKEMP MILL BELTSVILLE ARNOLD 06 CENTREVILLE FOREST GLEN CROWNSVILLE 197 3 301 07 270495 08 SILVER SPRING CROFTON 0 2 4 6 GREENBELT BETHESDA TAKOMA PARK GLENN DALE PAROLE QUEENSTOWN BIN JOHN 450 ANNAPOLIS STEVENSVILLE CHILLUM LANHAM-SEABROOK 70 Miles 05 424 595 8-0 Plan-- Zero Deviation 213 BROOKMONT 50 29 04 410 BOWIE GRASONVILLE 542 895 146 155 95 150 ESSEX BEL AIR PLEASANT HILLS 40 152 24 BOWLEYS QUARTERS 543 7 22 95 ABERDEEN HAVRE DE GRACE 715 01 BETTERTON KENT QUEEN AN
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 9 of 10 Exhibit A-3
Case 113-cv-03233-JKB Document 186-10 Filed 06/30/17 Page 10 of 10 Population Summary Report Maryland U.S. House, 8-0 Plan -- April 17, 2017 Zero Deviation District Adjusted Population Deviation % Deviation Adjusted Single- Race Black % Adjusted Single- Race Black Adjusted 18+ Population Adjusted 18+ Black % Adjusted 18+ Black % Unadjusted 18+ Hispanic % Unadjusted 18+ NH White 2008 Presidential (Democratic percentage) 01 721529 0 0.00% 153554 21.28% 570231 111727 19.6% 4.7% 70.6% 54.9% 02 721529 0 0.00% 166841 23.12% 548144 122444 22.4% 8.6% 62.2% 52.3% 03 721529 0 0.00% 187995 26.06% 547820 137462 25.1% 6.2% 57.3% 61.7% 04 721529 0 0.00% 406602 56.35% 542763 302995 55.8% 9.7% 29.9% 79.0% 05 721529 0 0.00% 226295 31.36% 557370 167997 30.1% 4.0% 62.5% 57.1% 06 721529 0 0.00% 87435 12.12% 545070 61486 11.3% 10.1% 66.4% 55.5% 07 721528-1 0.00% 388601 53.86% 552738 288527 52.2% 3.3% 41.2% 72.1% 08 721529 0 0.00% 82036 11.37% 555131 62475 11.3% 11.9% 66.7% 62.1% Total 5772231 0.00% 1699359 29.44% 4419267 1255113 28.40% 7.3% 57.22% Note 2008 vote by precinct reported by Harvard Election Data Archive Stephen Ansolabehere; Jonathan Rodden, 2011, "Maryland Data Files", <a href"http//hdl.handle.net/1902.1/15549">hdl1902.1/15549</a> V3 [Version] Duplicate vote counts in 11 Montgomery County consolidated precincts have been removed from the Harvard dataset