Political Snapshot: Year End 2013 The Way Forward The year 2013 will be remembered historically as the foundation for democratic transition. In May 2013 the first democratically elected government, in Pakistan s 67 years of existence, completed her 5 year tenure - a triumphant achievement for a country where the military has ruled for more than thirty years collectively.
Contents Democratic Transition... 3 US/ Drones/ Afghanistan... 3 India... 4 Iran and the IPP... 4 Turkey... 5 Way Forward... 5
Democratic Transition The year 2013 will be remembered historically as the foundation for democratic transition. In May 2013 the first democratically elected government, in Pakistan s 67 years of existence, completed her 5 year tenure - a triumphant achievement for a country where the military has ruled for more than thirty years collectively. As the PPP closed the chapter of governance and shifted to Sindh, the PTI and PML-N emerged as the stronger political parties compared to their previous performance. With the PTI securing provincial government in KPK, and the PML-N in Punjab and the Center, the three main political parties, the roles of all three national parties have been defined clearly. US/ Drones/ Afghanistan The newly elected Prime Minister also met President Barack Obama end October 2013, a meeting that boiled down to claims of better cooperation, emphasis on Pakistan s importance in the region amidst Afghanistan Endgame, and the US decision to approve previously cancelled aid to Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif s emphasis on the need to shift from an aid based to a trade based economy should be the priority. However, only a week after the heads of state shook hands and, the US decided to drone the much anticipated Talks with the Taliban. The Sharif government with the consensus of national and international stakeholders was leading talks with the Taliban after months of efforts on the US and Afghanistan s part as well. 1 November 2013, a day after TTP voiced their willingness to negotiate, leader Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a drone strike. This was a severe blow to Pak-US ties as both felt betrayed. As the more vocal opposition in the Center, the PTI led by Imran Khan, raised the issue of drones and even closed the NATO supply routes in protest. End November and early the party workers physically blocked the NATO trucks, demanding a ban on drones in Pakistan s tribal areas. Partial success however came at the cost of tarnishing relations with the US and Afghanistan, ghastly economic loss of $ 1 million per day ($1800 per truck; 600 trucks per day), and possibly reduction in aid. The drone issue has become a major highlight of 2013 politics. As the US justifies her right to resort to unmanned operations to counter terrorism, the legality has been questioned in the ICJ. However, come October 2013, the Washington Post claimed to have obtained CIA documents and Pakistani diplomatic memos which indicated officials were routinely given classified briefings. This latest finding has pushed Pakistan on the back foot, and closed
NATO routes as a means to put an end to impinged sovereignty may be a lost cause as alternatives are available. The coming year 2014 is crucial for Pakistan as the largest stakeholder in the Afghanistan Endgame. While Pakistan holds a strong bargaining chip, it is also most vulnerable to instability, terrorism, and spillover of refugees from the porous North West. Relations with the Karzai government therefore need to be solidified before Pakistan wakes up to a hostile government once NATO packs up and leaves. India Of the total 103 cross border clashes (with Afghanistan, Iran and India combined) 68 were with India alone. Although the newly elected Prime Minister has shown initiative with his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh has not been able to reciprocate as warmly owing to a hostile media and growing anti- Pakistan rhetoric in politically opposing circles. However, despite heated border clashes, the two met in New York after the United Nations General Assembly to discuss close economic ties in the future. Even though relations between the two with respect to Kashmir, LOC and stakes in Afghanistan have been bitter, the year ended on a good note as Indian and Pakistani DGMOs met on Wagah-Attari border, after 14 years. Iran and the IPP 24 November 2013 turned the tide for the controversial nuclear program as the Rouhani government was able to sign a much awaited nuclear deal. Pakistan s initial reluctance with the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline has been more than obvious over Iran s pariah. However 17, an Iranian firm has volunteered to finance and construct Pakistan s side of the pipeline. Tehran had earlier rejected a $500 million loan request, and now Pakistani officials are taking this alternative to relevant Iranian government counterparts as the projects is between two governments, not private entities. According to a report prepared by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, if furnace oil-based power generation is replaced with imported gas, it will lead to annual savings of $2.4 billion. Even though more expensive the project is termed financially feasible in the long run. IP gas would cause just 20% increase in the average gas basket price in the country if 750 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) is imported.
Turkey 23 November 2013: Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived on a 2 day visit during which Pakistan and Turkey signed three memorandums of understanding (MoUs) and pledged to boost trade cooperation and investment opportunities. PM Nawaz invited the visiting entrepreneurs to invest in infrastructure, textile, tourism, agriculture and milk industries; and assured them a one window facility for all queries, issues and implementation of their projects. As the only economy Erdogan s Turkey remains an economic success story as the only country during the global recession to maintain its economic growth. It remained at 9.2 percent in 2010, and stumbled down to 8.5 percent in 2011, and has the 17th largest GDP in the world. Turkey s expertise in agricultural machinery and a rapidly growing private sector make Turkey the ideal candidate to help agricultural Pakistan in pro-trade Sharif s tenure. The larger question remains: can Erdogan help Sharif implement his successful populist economic model? Whether or not, this alliance can only prove beneficial to Pakistan with stronger trade ties and hope for economic growth. A Preferential Trade Agreement is expected to be signed in the near future between the two. Way Forward 2014 is a crucial year for Pakistan. As the hotbed of conflict, the Afghanistan- Pakistan region remains vulnerable to a spillover. Developed countries in proximity like Australia and Canada have voiced their concerns as Pakistan may turn into a diving board for refugees who want to make their way towards better social and economic conditions. Therefore security situation in Pakistan s northern region, if aggravated, will have severe repercussions globally. Similarly, with a new government in Pakistan and Iran, and upcoming elections in India and Afghanistan in 2014, there is hope for a changed regional dynamic. There is hope for fresh starts. The Sharif government so far has proven to be good news for democratization. Taking the political opposition into confidence as far as local issues are concerned and building relations with regional players and beyond. However with porous border along war torn Afghanistan, and local security conditions worsening, it might take more than political will to reap the benefits of changing field. Pakistan must learn to be diplomatic and exhibit a state of national consensus on certain issues as paramount as the drones and talks with the Taliban.