Forum: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Student Officer: Sena Temelli Question of: The Situation in Ukraine Position: Deputy Chair Welcome Letter from the Student Officer Distinguished Participants of MUNB2018, It is my utmost pleasure to welcome you all to the first session of Model United Nations Conference of Besiktas Anatolian High School. I am Sena Temelli and studying in Kabatas Erkek High School and I will be serving you as the deputy chair of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Our committee will handle two of the most important issues that troubled the intercontinental agenda: The situation in Ukraine and combatting terrorism. I with the full belief, foresee that you will have productive debates while having fun in the committee. For any questions about the agenda item or the committee, please do not hesitate to contact me via caglasenatemelli@gmail.com I am looking forward to meeting you all in MUNB2018. Kindest Regards, Sena Temelli Vice President
Introduction Ukraine, due to its unfortunate location, has always been influenced by the ongoing problems of both Russia and Europe. But with the latest events, it got disturbed by its location more than ever before. The mass protests in Ukraine, which lead to an ousting and resulted with the annexation of Russia to the Ukrainian land, began with the suspension of the preparations for an association agreement known as Euromaidan. This agreement demanded closer relations between Ukraine and the European Union. However, Yanukovych, then-president of Ukraine, canceled the preparations for it. Taking advantage of the turmoil, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine and started to consider it as Russian territory. As the conflict goes on, Donetsk People s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People s Republic (LNR) declared their independence from Ukraine. The Ukrainian army moved to take the region back, however, the separatist forces got supported by the Russian Federation, which led to thousands of casualties and put up to one hundred thousand civilians in constant danger. After several months of conflict, the Minsk II Protocol was signed. It called for an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of all heavy weapons and the establishment of a security zone. However, the Protocol has been violated by both sides continuously, according to the reports of OSCE. And now, the so-called Security Zone is one of the most dangerous places in the world, risking thousands of lives every day. Definition of Key Terms Annexation: The action of adding to one's own territory by appropriation. Separatist: A person who supports the separation of a particular group of people from a larger body on the basis of ethnicity, religion, or gender. Nationalism: Identification with one's own nation and support for its interests, especially to the exclusion or detriment of the interests of other nations. Federal system: A system of government in which several states form a unity but remain independent in internal affairs.
Security zone: A security zone is a borderline in which the usage of weapons is strictly prohibited. It aims to ease a conflict between two sides by forming a disarmed area between them. General Overview Ukraine, located in the middle of Europe and Russia, has had several governments through the decades. Some were Pro-Russian, some were Pro-European and some wanted to be neutral. However, the country never managed to reach national unity. Citizens of eastern Ukraine tended to support any Russian influence, including the annexation of Crimea and the pressure to the government. On the other hand, citizens of western Ukraine mostly wished for more trade deals and closer relations with the EU and the US, as well as abandoning the trade deals with the Russian Federation. The Pro-Russian side was equally strong as the Pro- European side, therefore, there has always been tension between the sides. Ever since the Ukrainian parliament withdrew the NATO membership plans, the uprisings kept increasing. A conflict was ready to break out, waiting for the slightest aggressive move. The breaking point of the tension was when Yanukovych canceled the preparations for Euromaidan. Euromaidan was an association agreement, aiming to have easier trade and accessibility with the EU, which would have strengthened the ties between the European Union and Ukraine, however, it was highly against the Russian goals towards Ukraine. Russia, being Ukraine s biggest trade partner, put great pressure on the Ukrainian government to cancel the agreement. After the sudden decision of the president, massive protests, which requested for the ousting of the president, began.
The protests continued for months. More than a thousand people were injured and the country was on the edge of a civil war. Then, the Ukrainian Parliament voted upon ousting President Yanukovych. The results showed the situation well: 380 in favor, 0 against. The president had gotten impeached. The new Poroshenko government was Pro-European and the Russian Federation had to make a move. Russian nationalists always had claims on Crimea, some even considered Ukraine as Russian territory. Eastern Ukrainians mostly consisted of Russian-speaking citizens and many people sought for closer relations with Russia. However, when the uprisings have reached the maximum level, annexing Crimea seemed more possible to Russia than ever before. The coup was easy: The Crimeans consisted of Russian-speaking citizens and they had been wanting Crimea to be a Russian territory for a long time. The Russian Federation then held a referendum in the area. 90% voted in favor of Crimea being Russian territory. However, the results of the referendum were considered as invalid internationally by UN GA resolution 68/262 with claims that the data was unreliable. Besides the Russian Federation, there were other parties that took advantage of the turmoil in the country. The separatists located in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk declared themselves as independent republics. The so-called Donetsk People s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People s Republic (LNR) were established. Be that as it may, no countries recognized them. The government of Ukraine recognized them as terrorist organizations. The Ukrainian army confronted them, and they were about to take control of the region, but then the groups received Russian support. The tension rose day by day. Then, Russian Federation, OSCE and Ukraine signed the Minsk agreement. However, it got violated by Ukraine and the Russian Federation in a matter of days. The conflict went on the way it did before. On February 2015, a new agreement called Minsk II was signed by OSCE, Ukraine, Russian Federation, LNR and DNR. At first, it seemed to work: The intensity of the conflict decreased. However, all parties started violating the protocol after some time. The agreement is still officially considered as valid but violations occur daily. The situation hasn t changed significantly since 2015: Casualties are given almost every day. Millions of people have been displaced and more than twenty thousand people have been injured. Citizens are exhausted by the conflict but the governments don t give up on their goals and refuse to reach a common ground. Timeline of Key Events
June 2010: The Ukrainian Parliament votes upon withdrawing NATO membership plans. November 2013: Yanukovych abandoned the preparations for the association agreement with EU, seeking closer ties with Russia instead. Massive protests against the government began. February 2014: Yanukovych got charged with misconduct by the Ukranian Parliament, due to the misuse of his power. March 2014: The Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and held a referendum, asking if the Crimean citizens wanted to be a part of Russia. 90% voted for the Russian annexation. However, this referendum is not recognized by any countries except the Russian Federation. April 2014: Low-level fighting between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists began. July 2014: The Ukrainian government launched an offensive to push out the rebels once and for all. 30 July: The United States and the European Union declared new economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. October 2014: Pro-Western parties won the parliamentary elections in Ukraine. February 2015: Minsk II agreement was signed. 31 August 2018: The head of State and the Prime Minister of DPR, Alexander Zaharchenko was killed in an explosion, the death is believed to be an assassination. The Russian Federation claims that Ukraine should be held responsible for the assassination. Major Parties Involved Ukraine: Ukraine is a country that is being highly affected by both the east (mostly the Russian Federation) and the west. Ukrainian people couldn t resolve the identity crisis ever since they left the Soviet Union. The eastern and the western people disagree about so many things about the country, but mainly about if they should have closer ties with Russia or the European Union. The east, being geographically very close to Russia, is filled with Russianspeaking Ukrainians. Most of them believe that they shouldn t have any relations with the west, some even believe that Ukraine was never actually a separate country but a rightful
Russian territory. The west, on the other hand, believes that if Ukraine wishes to be independent in every way, it should get as far from Russia as possible. This fundamental disagreement impacts the crisis tremendously. For example, when Yanukovych abandoned the trade agreement with the EU, western Ukrainians considered that as disloyalty, while the Easterns were pleased with his decision. To sum up, it looks like the lack of national unity in Ukraine makes it significantly harder to resolve any problems occurring in the country. Currently, Ukraine is being governed by President Poroshenko, who seems to adopt closer ties with the west. Russian Federation: The Russian Federation can be considered as the party that affects the conflict the most. The Russian Federation has put pressure on several governments of Ukraine for several decades. And then, taking advantage of the turmoil, it annexed the Crimean Peninsula and called it a rightful Russian territory. Besides the annexation of Crimea, the Russian Federation has been supporting the separatists militarily. The military support coming from Russia is the only major support the separatists get. The Russian Federation has rejected those claims, however, it is internationally accepted. Therefore, the support of the Russian Federation to the separatist forces is considered as the main reason for the ongoing armed conflict. The Russian Federation centers on a demand to end the crisis: Ukraine should adopt a federal system. The reason is pretty clear, the current pro-western government is not trying to cooperate with Moscow at all. However, if Ukraine adopts a federal system, regional governments of eastern Ukraine will most probably cooperate with the Russian Federation easily, since they typically acquire a pro-russian policy. Most of the Russian people see Ukraine as a rightful part of Russia as well, since there is a significant number of Russian-speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine. It is unknown whether this view comes from the restricted pro-government media or not, but it is obvious that the currently rising Russian nationalism has influenced the view of the Russians to the Ukrainian crisis. Donetsk People s Republic (DNR): The Donetsk People s Republic (DNR) is a self-declared republic. It s formed by separatist forces formed in the city of Donetsk, Donbass. It is not internationally recognized, and it is considered a terrorist organization by the Ukrainian government. It is claimed to get military support from Russia. It consists mostly of Russianspeaking citizens from eastern Ukraine that are in favor of decentralization or complete
independence. As DNR is considered as a terrorist organization by Ukraine, Kiev refuses to trade with DNR. Therefore, the economy, as well as the existence of DNR relies on the Russian Federation. Luhansk People s Republic (LNR): Luhansk People s Republic has a similar policy with DNR, therefore these two self-declared republics are allies in facing Ukraine. United States of America: The United States does not recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea. The US has strong trade relations with Ukraine, and in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, it supports Ukraine in almost every way. European Union: The EU does not wish to worsen its relations with Moscow, however, they want Ukraine to improve its relations with them instead of Russia. Their policy is very similar to United States. OSCE: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), was one of the parties that signed the Minsk Protocol, other than the Russian Federation and Ukraine. After the Minsk Protocol was signed, OSCE sent the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine in order to oversee the implementation of the Protocol. It is also responsible for giving regular reports about the violations of the Protocol and monitoring the Security Zone. Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue There have been many attempts to resolve the Ukrainian Crisis, however, while failing to settle the conflict, some of the attempts even deteriorated the situation. a. UNSC The UN Security Council tried to pass several resolutions condemning the violent actions of the Russian Federation. However, as expected, UNSC failed to pass a resolution that could permanently resolve the issue, since the Russian Federation has the right of veto. b. Minsk I Protocol Minsk I Protocol was signed by the Russian Federation, the separatist forces and Ukraine. However, it didn t manage to ease the tension at all. c. Minsk II Protocol
A very significant attempt was the Minsk II Protocol. The agreement was signed by three parties: Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and OSCE. It demanded an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, however, there were numerous violations by both parties. Articles of the Minsk II Agreement, summarized 1. Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire 2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides 3. Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons 4. From day one of the withdrawal begin a dialogue on the holding of local elections 5. Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict 6. Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people 7. Unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to the needy, internationally supervised 8. Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas 9. Full Ukrainian government control will be restored over the state border, throughout the conflict zone 10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons, and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory 11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015 Possible Solutions The main priority of OSCE should be the declaration of an immediate and bilateral ceasefire, which was the main issue Minsk II failed to cover. Once both sides legitimately comply with the terms of the truce, diplomatic solutions could be considered.
There is a serious lack of humanitarian aid in the area. The providing and the delivery could be done by either OSCE itself or any other parties. However, it must be taken into account that both sides have concerns regarding the possible delivery of weaponry along with humanitarian aid. Whether or not DNR and LNR are going to be recognized as independent republics or terrorist groups could also be discussed. It must be borne in mind that the already-violated Minsk II agreement recognized them as independent republics. The validity of the previous referendum in Crimea is still controversial. A new referendum, or any solution ideas that could concretize the governance status of the territory are crucial. For a long-term solution, each side has a different idea. The Russian Federation wants Ukraine to adopt a federal system while Ukraine wants Russia to fully withdraw from the Crimean Peninsula. One side could convince the other, however, since both parties don t have positive approaches to each other s policies, creative solution ideas that could fulfill both sides requirements are highly encouraged. Further Reading Why Ukraine is trapped in endless conflict : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb9u1uoycoc Link to all of the reports given by OSCE regarding the Special Monitoring Mission: https://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports Bibliography https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s1879366515000305 https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/rr2200/rr2237/rand_rr2 237.pdf https://www.eurotopics.net/en/176694/russia-media-under-state-control