Brexit: recent developments and some reflections Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director, Centre for Brexit Studies
Outline What is the Centre for Brexit Studies? Some Scenarios The way forward?
What is the Centre for Brexit Studies? Interdisciplinary research and public engagement unit est. at BCU in January 2017 Provide a platform for research and debate on Brexit from both perspectives Strong focus on regional engagement Links with Chambers of Commerce, Local Authorities etc. Annual conference
What is the Centre for Brexit Studies? Current research projects Brexit and regional disparities: the need for new measures CBS Brexit Roadshow (series of public engagement/focus group research exploring current attitudes to Brexit) Sectoral impact analysis on Automotive and Aerospace The role of HEIs in regional development
The referendum result June 23 2016 Margin of some 4%, i.e., a majority of 51.9% to 48.1% Remain, 17,410,742 people voted Leave (around 37% of the total electorate). Regional variations Leave vote correlated with older voters, low income earners and those with lower educational background.
The referendum result Brexit means Brexit (Theresa May, July 2016) Brexit is what you make of it (Jeremy Corbyn, February 2018) Suggests a range of options are possible, but these ultimately depend on EU willingness..
Trade scenarios Continued European Economic Area (Single Market) membership and a close customs union (to be defined but likely to involve regulatory alignment similar to the single market in goods).
Trade scenarios The Kier Starmer Option ( close customs union and regulatory alignment but no EEA membership). Loose migration conditions. Swiss model (EFTA rather than EEA; some sectors covered, others not a Swiss cheese type approach).
Trade scenarios Turkey Plus : a looser customs union (some regulatory divergence but finessed to avoid a border in Ireland likely to involve alignment of phytosanitary regulations and some goods regulations). Moderate migration conditions.
Trade scenarios Free Trade Agreement (Canada/Canada Plus) but NO customs union and potential for regulatory divergence. Future migration as per non-eu. Trading on a WTO basis with tighter migration requirements.
The Impact of Brexit June 23 rd vote to leave the EU but not Europe UK Government has emphasised taking back control of our laws, our money and our borders But what does this mean? Theresa May no customs union, no single market
The Impact of Brexit Government s approach today seems to be of selective alignment with Single Market, i.e., Fully aligned sectors Sectors with equivalent regulations Sectors with divergent regulations Continuing problem of Northern Ireland border..
A reflection on Ireland: June 21 st 2016 If we were out of the European Union, with tariffs on exporting goods into the EU, there would have to be something to recognise that between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. And if you pulled out of the EU and came out of free movement then how could you have a situation where there was an open border with a country which was in the EU and had access to free movement? Theresa May. Source: Irish Times https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/may-to-lay-out-britain-s-three-track-approach-to-eu-regulations-1.3412007
Brexit regional impact scenarios Region Scenario potential impact on GDP (-ve % change on growth over next 15 years) ENGLAND Single Market Free Trade No Deal London 1.0 2.0 3.5 South East 1.5 4.5 7.5 South West 1.0 2.0 5.0 West Midlands 2.5 8.0 13.0 East Midlands 1.8 5.0 8.5 East Anglia 1.8 5.0 8.0 Yorkshire 1.5 5.0 7.0 North East 3.0 11.0 16.0 North West 2.5 8.0 12.0 Source: Buzzfeed, BBC
The way forward? Negotiations timetable requires agreement by September 2018 to allow member state ratification Still issues pertaining to Irish border, EU citizens rights and divorce settlement Impact of hung parliament and UK Government reliance on DUP..
Thank you. Any questions?