Canada s New Immigration Policies: Fixing the Problems or Creating New Ones? The Big Picture: Permanent Residents 6A Frontenac A Canadian Bar Association April 2009 Naomi Alboim
Overview of presentation Recent policy changes Context Options for intervention Challenges of new directions Recommendations 2
Recent policy changes Increased focus on short term labour market needs Facilitated entry of temporary workers to respond to labour shortages Introduction of Canadian Experience Class to allow international students and temporary workers to transition to permanent status Greater role of provinces, employers and educational institutions Increased Ministerial discretion to expedite processing of immigration applications All potentially positive implications if balanced approach 3
However Increased focus on short term labour market needs at expense of longer term demographic and economic needs Increased numbers of temporary workers, many vulnerable at low end, at expense of permanent residents (100% increase in stock since 2004) Ministerial Instructions limits skilled worker selection to 38 current demand occupations Introduction of Canadian Experience Class (two step immigration) within existing target numbers at expense of overseas applicants in inventory and only for high end Greater role of provinces, employers and educational institutions in selection and settlement without a national framework Increased Ministerial discretion with no constraints, removing transparency and predictability All potentially serious negative implications 4
The cumulative impact of the changes is a fundamental shift in Canadian immigration policy in the absence of evaluation or public debate. 5
Canadian context Immigration as means to end: one tool in kit Economic objectives paramount: short term/long term Population realities: net growth dependent on immigration Labour market realities: labour and skill shortages International competition for skilled workers Immigration to build nation, community and labour force Selecting citizens, not just workers Need to think beyond economic downturn 6
Who s coming? Number of permanent residents in 2008 below 2005 despite huge inventory and labour/demographic needs All categories (family, humanitarian) except economic declined Skilled workers used to represent 50% of all immigrants to Canada; in 2008 down to 42% Within economic class, Provincial Nominees and Live-in Caregivers had biggest increases Only 17.5% of immigrants assessed on skilled worker points system (Skilled Worker Principal Applicants) Ministerial discretion to determine priorities within and between economic and family classes 7
Who s coming? Almost 71% from Asia/Pacific and Africa/Middle East More educated than Canadian born (92% of SWPA have some Post Secondary Education) Largest group 25-44 years of age, but fewer 0-14, and increased numbers of 45-64 and 65+ 67% have some official language capacity (SWPA 89%) 8
How are recent immigrants (all classes) doing? Worse than previous cohorts, longer to catch up More unemployed than Canadian born, but most working More underemployed than Canadian born More in part time/part year employment than Canadian born More in low paying jobs than Canadian born More in low income than previous cohorts More than twice the incidence of low income relative to Canadian born 9
Possible causes Changing characteristics of immigrants (language, culture, education, country) Discounting of credentials and experience Increased competition with educated Canadian born and other new entrants Discrimination Business cycle scarring, economic restructuring Lack of alignment between selection criteria and labour market needs Different possible policy interventions for each 10
Preliminary research findings Some classes do better than others Skilled Worker Principal Applicants do better than other classes. Human capital matters * After SWPAs, refugees do better than other economic categories. Services matter * Family class members do better than other economic categories, particularly in their first year. Social capital matters * Language and communications matter most 11
Preliminary Research Findings Refugees and Family Class members stay in Canada more than Economic Class If low income avoided in first year, likelihood only 10% or less in subsequent years 34-41% exited low income after one year; approx one third still in low income after 3 years (two thirds not in low income) Services can shape economic integration: early interventions, language, social networks, Canadian top-ups (education and work experience) reverse discounting 12
Options for Intervention Focus on the immigrant Levels/mix/source countries Selection criteria (language, age, education, credentials, occupation) Focus on programs and services Bridge gap faced by immigrant before and after arrival Information, qualification assessment, language and bridge training, mentorships, work experience programs, loans 13
Focus on systems and attitudes of host society and institutions Regulatory bodies, employers, schools, universities, community colleges, community agencies Bridge gap faced by the institutions: awareness/recognition of skills, cross-cultural/antiracism training, supports, incentives, legislation, funding formulas Multi-stakeholder collaboration Inter and intra-governmental collaboration 14
Federal Government Response Invested in programs and some system changes Have not evaluated impact of programs Have just begun to evaluate skilled worker program under IRPA Have not reviewed SWPA selection criteria Introduced recent policy changes Focus almost exclusively on short term labour market needs (Ministerial instructions and temporary workers) Reduce skilled worker permanent admissions in favour of provincial nominees and temporary entrants Move towards two step immigration process (Canadian Experience Class) Devolve responsibilities to provinces, educational institutions, and employers 15
Challenges of New Directions
Ministerial Instructions 38 occupations identified, all others returned Puts onus on provinces to select others Some occupations already outdated: pre IRPA problems relived Some will not meet points system Some occupations will still face licensing barriers Raising immigrant expectations if on list, turning off future applicants if not Effectively shutting down new skilled worker selection 17
Temporary Foreign Workers (employers) Numbers increasing 193,061 entries in 2008 (increase of 71.2% since 2004) Newfoundland, Alberta, BC, and Territories received more TFWs than immigrants in 2007 and 2008 Employer driven No caps or targets tabled in Parliament Priority processing, new offices, reduced employer requirements to get approval, 2 year work permits Employers using TFWs to fill permanent vacancies more quickly than with Skilled Workers Increasing use of TFWs to fill low-skilled and unskilled jobs Many concerns re vulnerability, impact on domestic workers and skilled worker applicants, longer term implications 18
Provincial Nominee Programs (provinces) Federal-Provincial Agreements in absence of national framework Patchwork of criteria, costs, processes, devolving costs to provinces Complexity reduces transparency, adds confusion to immigrants and visa officers No FSW point system requirement Respond to regional needs but mobility rights guaranteed Provide priority processing (10 priorities) but no caps and growing significantly (22,411 in 2008) Testing ground for new approaches but no evaluation Designed as complement to FSW but CIC projects more PNP than FSW in future 19
Canadian Experience Class Provides opportunity for transition to permanent residence for some international students and temporary workers CEC numbers included in total target for economic permanent residents tabled annually, reducing number admitted under skilled worker program May ease out one-step permanent residency over time Devolves selection of immigrants and future citizens to employers and post secondary institutions Initial settlement support devolved to employers and PSE institutions: no common standards Delays access to services, permanent residency and citizenship if come to Canada as temporary entrant first May have unintended consequences for post secondary institutions and domestic students Ineligibility for CEC may lead to increase of undocumented underclass 20
New Directions and Possible Policy Implications More blurring of numbers (perm and temp=newcomers) will make planning and evaluation difficult Processing priorities ( Que, 10 PNPs, TFW, IS, Spouses and dependents, Ministerial instructions, CEC within existing levels) will disadvantage permanent skilled workers The occupational list proposed for ministerial instructions for Skilled worker processing will result in a narrower range of skilled workers and will not respond to longer term needs of our economy 21
Implications In the absence of fixing the processing and criteria for skilled workers, employers will rely more on the PNP and FTW programs with their concomitant difficulties Increased proportion of landings will come from CEC, requiring more people to follow a two step process to permanent status without access to federal services in first step, potential delays to citizenship, potential delayed family unification, potential removal of competitive advantage Increased selection and settlement responsibilities will be expected for Provinces, employers and PSE institutions, and will result in a patchwork of policies and services across the country 22
Potential Scenario in Economic Downturn Employers will lay off temporary workers hired in past few years Some will return to their home countries; others at low end who are ineligible for CEC, will go underground if conditions at home are worse than in Canada Recently hired immigrants may be laid off or face even more difficulties in finding work, becoming more de-skilled and frustrated Previous arrivals with few language or computer skills will be hardest hit, particularly if already here three years Economic immigrants with visas may delay their arrival in Canada or come to be landed and then return to their countries of origin Those in 38 occupations may come forward to find changes in the economy no longer needing their skill sets for which they were specifically selected Members of the family class and refugees will continue to arrive PSE institutions will be oversubscribed and unable to accept large numbers of international students Employers will not recruit more temporary workers Provinces may reduce their PNP programs We will be unprepared for the end of the downturn and be worse off demographically and in terms of labour and skill shortages 23
Recommendations Levels and mix 1. Sustain balanced mix and levels for permanent immigrants (Economic, Family and Refugee). Skilled worker program 2. Evaluate and strengthen the skilled worker program by changing selection criteria (language test, age, credentials, occupation, family) 3. Create a searchable skilled worker applicant inventory and expedite applicants with job offers or in demand occupations. 4. Remove restricted occupation list and increase resources for processing 24
Recommendations Provincial nominee program 5. Evaluate the provincial nominee programs and work with the provinces to create a common framework. Canadian experience class 6. Increase tabled target levels and resources to accommodate the CEC. Define roles and responsibilities of employers and post-secondary institutions. Monitor implementation for unintended consequences. Expand eligibility for those already in Canada. 25
..Recommendations Family and Refugee Classes 7. Expand the family and refugee classes to not only fulfill our social and humanitarian obligations but to address some of our labour and population shortages across the country Integration 8. Evaluate settlement and labour market programs and make successful interventions available across Canada Broaden eligibility for overseas orientation and domestic federal settlement programs Expand early interventions in bridging programs, internships, mentorships, higher language/communication training, loans Enhance interventions during the downturn (income support, language, computer and skills training) so well prepared for upturn 26
Conclusion Patterns of immigration and immigration policies are constantly evolving The cumulative impact of changes is potentially enormous In the absence of evaluation, good policy development and consultation, we may be creating worse problems, rather than fixing the ones we currently face Need for public debate and overall vision The decisions we make today in haste will have a long term impact and will determine who we become tomorrow 27