Election 2015 User Guide Angus Reid Institute User Guide compiled by: Data Services, Academic Services Queen s University Library 2016
Table of Contents Introduction... 2 Metadata... 2 Related Publications... 3 Documentation... 3 Topic Index... 4 Codebook... 7 Citation... 33 1
INTRODUCTION Angus Reid Institute is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research organization. This poll, conducted as the 2015 Federal Election was entering its final weekend, looks at what eligible and likely voters think is the most important issue in the election, voter s opinions of the 5 main parties and their leaders, and the likelihood that they will go out and vote on October 19. Queen s University Library (QUL) Data Services worked collaboratively with Angus Reid Institute to document and archive the dataset described here. QUL is grateful to Angus Reid Institute for their commitment to providing broad and open access to this dataset. METADATA Dataset Number of Cases = 2022 Number of Variables = 87 Universe Individuals 18 years and older who are members of the Angus Reid Forum panel. Geography Canada Date of Collection October 13-16, 2015 Mode of data collection Online survey Sampling procedure 2022 Canadians adults were randomly selected from Angus Reid Forum panel members. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. Mode of data collection Online survey Weight N/A 2
RELATED PUBLICATIONS Media Release - Election 2015: Liberals edge Conservatives as volatile electorate mulls final choice before last campaign weekend DOCUMENTATION Questionnaire (PDF) Report (PDF) Tables (Excel) 3
TOPIC INDEX Demographic arf_gender arf_age_rollup_fine Age Age_fine age_gender edu ARF_Education_Level_DV arf_marital_status arf_hhkids arf_working_status arf_home_lang arf_hh_size_dv arf_home_ownership income arf_hh_income Geographic arf_region_rollup arf_urban_rural arf_first_dv arf_macro_region region region7 OntReg CommunitySize Cities ARF - Gender ARF - Age Rollup (7 groups) ARF - Age (3 groups) ARF - Age (6 groups) ARF - Age/Gender ARF - Education ARF - Education [derived variable] ARF - Marital Status ARF - Household Kids ARF - Working Status ARF - Home Language ARF - Household size [derived variable] ARF - Home Ownership ARF - Income ARF - Household Income ARF - Region Rollup - Provinces ARF - Urban Rural ARF - First letter of FSA [derived variable] ARF - Macro Region ARF - Region (Manitoba/Saskatchewan grouped; Atlantic provinces grouped) ARF - Region (Atlantic provinces grouped) ARF - Ontario Region ARF - Community Size ARF - Cities Federal Vote arf_federal_vote_2011 ARF - Federal Vote 2011 arf_federal_partychoice_2011 ARF - Federal Party Choices 2011 4
Race arf_race_british arf_race_french arf_race_othereur arf_race_aboriginal arf_race_otherna arf_race_caribbean arf_race_asian arf_race_chinese arf_race_otherasian arf_jewish arf_race_otherspecify_dv arf_mosaic_identity_born_in_ca Race Survey Questions Q1_Theeconomy Q1_JobsUnemployment Q1_DeficitDebtGovernmentspending Q1_Taxes Q1_Costofliving Q1_HealthCare Q1_EnvironmentClimatechange Q1_EducationPostsecondary Q1_TerrorismSecurity Q1_TradeTPPCompetitiveness Q1_LeadershipPolitics Q1_IntegrityEthics Q1_CanadianvaluesNiqabdebate Q1_Otherpleasespecify Q1_15_other Awareness Q3_0 Q3_1 Q3_2 Q3_3 Q3_4 Q7 AdvanceVote VoteNext Leaners ARF - British Isles (e.g., English, Irish, Scottish) ARF - French ARF - Other European (e.g., German, Russian, Italian, Norwegian) ARF - Aboriginal (e.g., Inuit, Métis, North American Indian) ARF - Other North American (e.g., Canadian, American, Newfoundlander, Québécois) ARF - Caribbean (e.g., Jamaican, Barbadian, Cuban, West Indian) ARF - South Asian (e.g., East Indian, Pakistani, Goan, Sri Lankan) ARF - Chinese ARF - Other East and Southeast Asian (e.g., Filipino, Vietnamese, Korean, Japanese) ARF - Jewish (non-denominational) ARF - Race - Other (includes Latin, Central, South America, African, Oceania) [derived variable] ARF - Mosaic identity Born in Canada ARF - Race Q1 - Most important issue in election: The economy Q1 - Most important issue in election: Jobs/Unemployment Q1 - Most important issue in election: Deficit/Debt/Government spending Q1 - Most important issue in election: Taxes Q1 - Most important issue in election: Cost of living Q1 - Most important issue in election: Health Care Q1 - Most important issue in election: Environment/Climate change Q1 - Most important issue in election: Education/Post-secondary Q1 - Most important issue in election: Terrorism/Security Q1 - Most important issue in election: Trade/TPP/Competitiveness Q1 - Most important issue in election: Leadership/Politics Q1 - Most important issue in election: Integrity/Ethics Q1 - Most important issue in election: Canadian values/niqab debate Q1 - Most important issue in election: Other, please specify Q1 - Most important issue in election: Other [text] Q2 - How closely have you been following this federal election campaign so far? Q3a - How appealing: Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper Q3a - How appealing: Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau Q3a - How appealing: New Democratic Party/NDP leader Thomas Mulcair Q3a - How appealing: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe Q3a - How appealing: Green Party leader Elizabeth May Q3b - How likely is it that you will actually go out and vote in this federal election? Q3c - Which party's candidate did you support? Q4 - Party's candidate in your own riding will you be most likely to support in this federal election? Q5 - Is there any party you are leaning towards? 5
Certainity Q8 Q10_0 Q10_1 Q10_2 Q10_3 Q10_4 Q11 Q13 Q14 Q16 Q16b Q17_0 Q17_1 Q17_2 Q17_3 Q17_4 Q17_5 Q20 Q21 Q22 Q23 Softie Q6 - How certain are you that you will actually end up voting for this party? Q7 - Candidate support: when do you think you will make up your mind Q8 - Opinion changed about: Stephen Harper - Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Q8 - Opinion changed about: Justin Trudeau - Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada Q8 - Opinion changed about: Thomas Mulcair - Leader of the New Democratic Party Q8 - Opinion changed about: Gilles Duceppe - Leader of the Bloc Quebecois Q8 - Opinion changed about: Elizabeth May - Leader of the Green Party Q9 - Which major party leader make the best Prime Minister of Canada Q10a - Who win this election and form the next government of Canada Q10b - Expect them to win a majority or a minority government Q11 - How likely change mind: vote for NDP candidate in this election Q11 - How likely change mind: vote for Liberal candidate in this election Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Conservative - majority Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Conservative - minority Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Liberal - majority Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Liberal - minority Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: NDP - majority Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: NDP - minority Q13 - Describe personal voting habits in past elections Q14 - May 2011 federal election: Vote in that election Q15 - May 2011 federal election: Party candidate voted for Q16 - June 2014 Ontario provincial election: Party voted for ARF Vote Next Certainty 6
CODEBOOK arf_gender Position 1 ARF - Gender 1 Male 1009 49.9% 2 Female 1013 50.1% arf_age_rollup_fine Position 2 ARF - Age Rollup (7 groups) 1 Under 18 0 0.0% 2 18 to 24 116 5.7% 3 25 to 34 337 16.7% 4 35 to 44 259 12.8% 5 45 to 54 516 25.5% 6 55 to 64 328 16.2% 7 65+ 466 23.0% ARF_Education_Level_DV Position 3 ARF - Education [derived variable] 1 Elementary/grade school/some high school 174 8.6% 2 High school graduate 619 30.6% 3 Some college / technical school 222 11.0% 4 Completed college / technical school 438 21.7% 5 Some university 103 5.1% 6 University undergraduate degree 259 12.8% 7 Some post-graduate school 58 2.9% 8 Post-graduate degree 149 7.4% 7
arf_hh_income Position 4 ARF - Household Income 1 Less than $25,000 212 10.5% 2 $25,000 to less than $35,000 174 8.6% 3 $35,000 to less than $50,000 276 13.6% 4 $50,000 to less than $75,000 353 17.5% 5 $75,000 to less than $100,000 289 14.3% 6 $100,000 to less than $125,000 166 8.2% 7 $125,000 or more 212 10.5% 8 Don't know/prefer not to say 340 16.8% arf_race_british Position 5 ARF - British Isles (e.g., English, Irish, Scottish) 0 Not Selected 1241 61.4% 1 Selected 781 38.6% arf_race_french Position 6 ARF - French 0 Not Selected 1735 85.8% 1 Selected 287 14.2% arf_race_othereur Position 7 ARF - Other European (e.g., German, Russian, Italian, Norwegian) 0 Not Selected 1517 75.0% 1 Selected 505 25.0% arf_race_aboriginal Position 8 ARF - Aboriginal (e.g., Inuit, Metis, North American Indian) 0 Not Selected 1939 95.9% 1 Selected 83 4.1% 8
arf_race_otherna Position 9 ARF - Other North American (e.g., Canadian, American, Newfoundlander, Quebecois) 0 Not Selected 1044 51.6% 1 Selected 978 48.4% arf_race_caribbean Position 10 ARF - Caribbean (e.g., Jamaican, Barbadian, Cuban, West Indian) 0 Not Selected 2003 99.1% 1 Selected 19.9% arf_race_asian Position 11 ARF - South Asian (e.g., East Indian, Pakistani, Goan, Sri Lankan) 0 Not Selected 1989 98.4% 1 Selected 33 1.6% arf_race_chinese Position 12 ARF - Chinese 0 Not Selected 1948 96.3% 1 Selected 74 3.7% arf_race_otherasian Position 13 ARF - Other East and Southeast Asian (e.g., Filipino, Vietnamese, Korean, Japanese) 0 Not Selected 1994 98.6% 1 Selected 28 1.4% 9
arf_jewish Position 14 ARF - Jewish (non-denominational) 0 Not Selected 1997 98.8% 1 Selected 25 1.2% arf_race_otherspecify_dv Position 15 ARF - Race - Other (includes Latin, Central, South America, African, Oceania) [derived variable] 0 Not Selected 1936 95.7% 1 Selected 86 4.3% arf_region_rollup Position 16 ARF - Region Rollup - Provinces 1 BC 404 20.0% 2 Alberta 152 7.5% 3 SK 102 5.0% 4 MB 102 5.0% 5 ON 656 32.4% 6 QC 503 24.9% 7 Atlantic 103 5.1% 8 Territories 0 0.0% arf_hhkids Position 17 ARF - Household Kids 1 Yes 534 26.4% 2 No 1447 71.6% 41 2.0% 10
arf_working_status Position 18 1 ARF - Working Status Employed / self-employed full-time (30 or more hours per week) 881 43.6% 2 Employed / self-employed part-time (fewer than 30 hours per week) 189 9.3% 3 Full-time student 108 5.3% 4 Homemaker 95 4.7% 5 Retired 551 27.3% 6 Currently looking for work 87 4.3% 7 Not working for medical reasons 80 4.0% 8 Other 31 1.5% arf_home_lang Position 19 ARF - Home Language 1 English 1536 76.0% 2 French 422 20.9% 3 Other 54 2.7% 10.5% arf_hh_size_dv Position 20 ARF - Household size [derived variable] 1 1 person in household 432 21.4% 2 2 people in household 876 43.3% 3 3 people in household 313 15.5% 4 4 people in household 259 12.8% 5 5 people in household 104 5.1% 6 6 or more people in household 38 1.9% 11
arf_home_ownership Position 21 ARF - Home Ownership 1 Own 1374 68.0% 2 Rent 560 27.7% 3 Other 77 3.8% 11.5% arf_urban_rural Position 22 ARF - Urban Rural 1 Urban 1682 83.2% 2 Rural 340 16.8% arf_first_dv Position 23 ARF - First letter of FSA [derived variable] 1 A, B, C, E - Atlantic Provinces 103 5.1% 2 G - Eastern Quebec 146 7.2% 3 H - Metropolitan Montréal 134 6.6% 4 J - Western Quebec 223 11.0% 5 K - Eastern Ontario 130 6.4% 6 L - Central Ontario 219 10.8% 7 M - Metropolitan Toronto 137 6.8% 8 N - Southwestern Ontario 126 6.2% 9 P - Northern Ontario 44 2.2% 10 R - Manitoba 102 5.0% 11 S - Saskatchewan 102 5.0% 12 T - Alberta 152 7.5% 13 V - British Columbia 404 20.0% 14 X - Northwest Territories and Nunavut 0 0.0% 15 Y - Yukon 0 0.0% 12
arf_marital_status Position 24 ARF - Marital Status 1 Single, never married 488 24.1% 2 Common law 249 12.3% 3 Civil partnership 26 1.3% 4 Married 907 44.9% 5 Separated 41 2.0% 6 Divorced 170 8.4% 7 Widowed 89 4.4% 52 2.6% arf_macro_region Position 25 ARF - Macro Region 1 Vancouver 204 10.1% 2 BC Other 200 9.9% 3 Calgary 56 2.8% 4 Edmonton 49 2.4% 5 AB Other 47 2.3% 6 Regina / Saskatoon 60 3.0% 7 SK Other 42 2.1% 8 Winnipeg 62 3.1% 9 MB Other 40 2.0% 10 Toronto 239 11.8% 11 Ottawa - Hull 0 0.0% 12 ON Other 417 20.6% 13 Montréal 236 11.7% 14 Québec 57 2.8% 15 QC Other 210 10.4% 16 Halifax 27 1.3% 17 ATL Other 76 3.8% 18 North 0 0.0% 13
arf_federal_vote_2011 Position 26 ARF - Federal Vote 2011 1 Yes 1569 77.6% 2 No 325 16.1% 128 6.3% arf_federal_partychoice_2011 Position 27 ARF - Federal Party Choices 2011 1 Conservative Party of Canada 578 28.6% 2 Liberal Party of Canada 304 15.0% 3 New Democratic Party 490 24.2% 4 Green Party of Canada 70 3.5% 5 Bloc Québécois 86 4.3% 6 Other 41 2.0% 453 22.4% arf_mosaic_identity_born_in_ca Position 28 ARF - Mosaic identity Born in Canada 1 Yes 1044 51.6% 2 No 153 7.6% 825 40.8% Q1_Theeconomy Position 29 Q1 - Most important issue in election: The economy 0 Not Selected 1340 66.3% 1 Selected 682 33.7% Q1_JobsUnemployment Position 30 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Jobs/Unemployment 0 Not Selected 1701 84.1% 1 Selected 321 15.9% 14
Q1_DeficitDebtGovernmentspending Position 31 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Deficit/Debt/Government spending 0 Not Selected 1794 88.7% 1 Selected 228 11.3% Q1_Taxes Position 32 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Taxes 0 Not Selected 1737 85.9% 1 Selected 285 14.1% Q1_Costofliving Position 33 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Cost of living 0 Not Selected 1650 81.6% 1 Selected 372 18.4% Q1_HealthCare Position 34 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Health Care 0 Not Selected 1545 76.4% 1 Selected 477 23.6% Q1_EnvironmentClimatechange Position 35 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Environment/Climate change 0 Not Selected 1726 85.4% 1 Selected 296 14.6% 15
Q1_EducationPostsecondary Position 36 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Education/Post-secondary 0 Not Selected 1919 94.9% 1 Selected 103 5.1% Q1_TerrorismSecurity Position 37 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Terrorism/Security 0 Not Selected 1877 92.8% 1 Selected 145 7.2% Q1_TradeTPPCompetitiveness Position 38 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Trade/TPP/Competitiveness 0 Not Selected 1971 97.5% 1 Selected 51 2.5% Q1_LeadershipPolitics Position 39 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Leadership/Politics 0 Not Selected 1865 92.2% 1 Selected 157 7.8% Q1_IntegrityEthics Position 40 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Integrity/Ethics 0 Not Selected 1810 89.5% 1 Selected 212 10.5% 16
Q1_CanadianvaluesNiqabdebate Position 41 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Canadian values/niqab debate 0 Not Selected 1900 94.0% 1 Selected 122 6.0% Q1_Otherpleasespecify Position 42 Q1 - Most important issue in election: Other, please specify 0 Not Selected 1921 95.0% 1 Selected 101 5.0% Q1_15_other Position 43 a Government that won't sell off Canada's natural resorses to the highest bidder Q1 - Most important issue in election: Other [text] 1921 95.0% 1.0% Aboriginal Peoples 1.0% Aboriginal/Human Rights 1.0% abortion 1.0% Abortion & euthanasia 1.0% Abortion legislation 1.0% affordable housing 1.0% AGAINST LEGALIZING POT 1.0% ALL THE ABOVE 1.0% Animal welfare 1.0% Appauvrissement famille 1.0% Benefits for Seniors 1.0% Bill C-51 1.0% Canada's place in the world 1.0% Change of government 1.0% change the present government 1.0% 17
child care 1.0% civil liberties 1.0% crime 1.0% crumbling infrastructure 1.0% déloger le gouvernement qui est présentement sur place 1.0% Day Care 1.0% Disability Issues and Proportional Representation 1.0% Disability pensions 1.0% Electoral reform 2.1% Electoral Reform 1.0% Eliminate Bills C-24 & C-51 1.0% every one of them is an issue. 1.0% everything listed is important to the election 1.0% Fear 1.0% First Nations Issues 1.0% First Nations land claims and 1.0% sovereignty First Nations Treatment 1.0% Foreign Affairs 1.0% Foreign policy 1.0% get rid of harper 2.1% get rid of Harper 1.0% get rid of the senate 1.0% getting rid onf Harper and too many of the above to pick one GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY - so they can pay for their own mistakes instead of us taxpyers always paying for their mistakes 1.0% 1.0% Government transparency & accountability 1.0% homelessness 1.0% homes for the homeless 1.0% 18
Housing costs 1.0% i don't know 1.0% immigration 2.1% Immigration 2.1% Inégalités économiques 1.0% income inequality 3.1% Indépendance du Québec 1.0% indian affairs 1.0% Individual's rights and freedom 1.0% Infrastructure Funding/Transit 1.0% keeping Cnada at the forefront of international decency 1.0% Kicking Stephen Harper in the nuts 1.0% La famille 1.0% lack of Christian values lower old age security back to age 65 1.0% 1.0% marijuana legilization 1.0% mental health 1.0% missing aboriginal women 1.0% moral decay 1.0% Moving Vr. Marine traffic to be electronically monitored from Victoria Much stronger sentencing for crime, particularily child abuse and child pornography 1.0% 1.0% NA 1.0% native issues 1.0% Native rights 1.0% no justice 1.0% no more immigrants 1.0% openness & clarity; destruction of archives & scientific reports 1.0% Our rights and freedoms 1.0% pensions 1.0% 19
Pensions 1.0% Peronnes agées 1.0% poverty 1.0% Poverty 1.0% Privacy >> bill C- 51 1.0% respecter les chartes de l'onu 1.0% Restoring Canada Post home mail delivery Returning Canada to what it was before the totally despicable Harper turned it into a personal fiefdom of religious fanatics, bigots and greed mongerers through his sellout of the economy and environment and ethics 1.0% 1.0% road tolls 1.0% Science and data 1.0% seniors 1.0% Seniors 1.0% Seniors Benefits 1.0% seniors help 1.0% stopping harper 1.0% The care for mentally ill persons 1.0% The Family 1.0% to get rid of harper 1.0% transparancy 1.0% transparency - there is none 1.0% Transparency Act 1.0% Vancouver Housing Market/Foreign Data 1.0% veterans 1.0% 20
Awareness Position 44 1 Q2 - How closely have you been following this federal election campaign so far? Following it in the news, and discussing it with friends and family 970 48.0% 2 Seeing some media coverage, and having the odd conversation about it 654 32.3% 3 Just scanning the headlines 345 17.1% 4 Haven't seen or heard anything about it 53 2.6% Q3_0 Position 45 Q3a - How appealing: Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper 1 Not at all appealing 923 45.6% 2 Not very appealing 376 18.6% 3 Quite appealing 347 17.2% 4 Very appealing 294 14.5% 5 Not sure/can't say 82 4.1% Q3_1 Position 46 Q3a - How appealing: Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau 1 Not at all appealing 426 21.1% 2 Not very appealing 415 20.5% 3 Quite appealing 605 29.9% 4 Very appealing 481 23.8% 5 Not sure/can't say 95 4.7% Q3_2 Position 47 Q3a - How appealing: New Democratic Party/NDP leader Thomas Mulcair 1 Not at all appealing 456 22.6% 2 Not very appealing 512 25.3% 3 Quite appealing 615 30.4% 4 Very appealing 327 16.2% 5 Not sure/can't say 112 5.5% 21
Q3_3 Position 48 Q3a - How appealing: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 1 Not at all appealing 168 8.3% 2 Not very appealing 93 4.6% 3 Quite appealing 121 6.0% 4 Very appealing 97 4.8% 5 Not sure/can't say 24 1.2% 1519 75.1% Q3_4 Position 49 Q3a - How appealing: Green Party leader Elizabeth May 1 Not at all appealing 551 27.3% 2 Not very appealing 471 23.3% 3 Quite appealing 488 24.1% 4 Very appealing 262 13.0% 5 Not sure/can't say 250 12.4% Q7 Position 50 Q3b - How likely is it that you will actually go out and vote in this federal election? 1 Already voted at an advance poll 665 32.9% 2 Absolutely certain you will go out and vote 1046 51.7% 3 Quite sure you will vote 169 8.4% 4 Will vote if you remember 42 2.1% 5 Will probably not end up voting 100 4.9% 22
AdvanceVote Position 51 Q3c - Which party's candidate did you support? 1 Conservative Party 210 10.4% 2 Liberal Party 201 9.9% 3 New Democratic Party (NDP) 140 6.9% 4 Bloc Quebecois 31 1.5% 5 Green Party 28 1.4% 6 Other Party 3.1% 7 Would rather not say 52 2.6% 1357 67.1% VoteNext Position 52 Q4 - Party's candidate in your own riding will you be most likely to support in this federal election? 1 Conservative Party 346 17.1% 2 Liberal Party 387 19.1% 3 New Democratic Party (NDP) 259 12.8% 4 Bloc Quebecois 54 2.7% 5 Green Party 64 3.2% 6 Other Party 14.7% 7 Undecided/Not sure 233 11.5% 665 32.9% Leaners Position 53 Q5 - Is there any party you are leaning towards? 1 Conservative Party 23 1.1% 2 Liberal Party 32 1.6% 3 New Democratic Party (NDP) 24 1.2% 4 Bloc Quebecois 7.3% 5 Green Party 10.5% 6 Other Party 1.0% 7 Undecided/Not sure 136 6.7% 1789 88.5% 23
Certainity Position 54 Q6 - How certain are you that you will actually end up voting for this party? 1 I will definitely vote for this party, no way I could change my mind 661 32.7% 2 I will probably vote for this party 380 18.8% 3 I could change my mind before voting day 180 8.9% 801 39.6% Q8 Position 55 Q7 - Candidate support: when do you think you will make up your mind 1 In the next day or so 134 6.6% 2 The final weekend 243 12.0% 3 Not until voting day, Monday the 19th 319 15.8% 1326 65.6% Q10_0 Position 56 Q8 - Opinion changed about: Stephen Harper - Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada 1 Worsened 750 37.1% 2 Stayed the same 1085 53.7% 3 Improved 187 9.2% Q10_1 Position 57 Q8 - Opinion changed about: Justin Trudeau - Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada 1 Worsened 409 20.2% 2 Stayed the same 1037 51.3% 3 Improved 576 28.5% 24
Q10_2 Position 58 Q8 - Opinion changed about: Thomas Mulcair - Leader of the New Democratic Party 1 Worsened 558 27.6% 2 Stayed the same 1264 62.5% 3 Improved 200 9.9% Q10_3 Position 59 Q8 - Opinion changed about: Gilles Duceppe - Leader of the Bloc Quebecois 1 Worsened 102 5.0% 2 Stayed the same 319 15.8% 3 Improved 82 4.1% 1519 75.1% Q10_4 Position 60 Q8 - Opinion changed about: Elizabeth May - Leader of the Green Party 1 Worsened 254 12.6% 2 Stayed the same 1585 78.4% 3 Improved 183 9.1% Q11 Position 61 Q9 - Which major party leader make the best Prime Minister of Canada 1 Stephen Harper 586 29.0% 2 Justin Trudeau 572 28.3% 3 Thomas Mulcair 458 22.7% 4 Not Sure 406 20.1% 25
Q13 Position 62 Q10a - Who win this election and form the next government of Canada 1 Conservative Party of Canada 528 26.1% 2 Liberal Party of Canada 831 41.1% 3 New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) 144 7.1% 4 Don't know/can't say 519 25.7% Q14 Position 63 Q10b - Expect them to win a majority or a minority government 1 Majority 323 16.0% 2 Minority 1011 50.0% 3 Don't know/can't say 169 8.4% 519 25.7% Q16 Position 64 Q11 - How likely change mind: vote for NDP candidate in this election 1 Very likely you could end up doing that 18.9% 2 Somewhat likely 67 3.3% 3 Not very likely 96 4.7% 4 No way you would do that 26 1.3% 1815 89.8% Q16b Position 65 Q11 - How likely change mind: vote for Liberal candidate in this election 1 Very likely you could end up doing that 11.5% 2 Somewhat likely 52 2.6% 3 Not very likely 54 2.7% 4 No way you would do that 22 1.1% 1883 93.1% 26
Q17_0 Position 66 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Conservative - majority 1 Very upset 963 47.6% 2 Quite upset 185 9.1% 3 Neutral 325 16.1% 4 Quite pleased 195 9.6% 5 Very pleased 354 17.5% Q17_1 Position 67 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Conservative - minority 1 Very upset 575 28.4% 2 Quite upset 471 23.3% 3 Neutral 493 24.4% 4 Quite pleased 438 21.7% 5 Very pleased 45 2.2% Q17_2 Position 68 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Liberal - majority 1 Very upset 497 24.6% 2 Quite upset 306 15.1% 3 Neutral 538 26.6% 4 Quite pleased 348 17.2% 5 Very pleased 333 16.5% Q17_3 Position 69 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: Liberal - minority 1 Very upset 269 13.3% 2 Quite upset 337 16.7% 3 Neutral 653 32.3% 4 Quite pleased 611 30.2% 5 Very pleased 152 7.5% 27
Q17_4 Position 70 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: NDP - majority 1 Very upset 559 27.6% 2 Quite upset 275 13.6% 3 Neutral 584 28.9% 4 Quite pleased 302 14.9% 5 Very pleased 302 14.9% Q17_5 Position 71 Q12 - Pleased or upset with this outcome: NDP - minority 1 Very upset 391 19.3% 2 Quite upset 305 15.1% 3 Neutral 663 32.8% 4 Quite pleased 491 24.3% 5 Very pleased 172 8.5% Q20 Position 72 Q13 - Describe personal voting habits in past elections 1 I vote in every election (federal, provincial, and municipal) 1464 72.4% 2 I vote in most elections (three of the last four elections) 303 15.0% 3 I vote in some elections (two of the last four elections) 84 4.2% 4 I rarely vote (one of the last four elections) 81 4.0% 5 I never vote 90 4.5% Q21 Position 73 Q14 - May 2011 federal election: Vote in that election 1 Yes, definitely voted 1643 81.3% 2 Probably voted 76 3.8% 3 Maybe not/can't recall 63 3.1% 4 No, did not vote in that election 240 11.9% 28
Q22 Position 74 Q15 - May 2011 federal election: Party candidate voted for 1 Conservative Party 632 31.3% 2 Liberal Party 316 15.6% 3 New Democratic Party (NDP) 511 25.3% 4 Bloc Quebecois 87 4.3% 5 Green Party 85 4.2% 6 Other Party 9.4% 7 Not sure/can't say 142 7.0% 240 11.9% Q23 Position 75 Q16 - June 2014 Ontario provincial election: Party voted for 1 Conservative/Tim Hudak 190 9.4% 2 Liberal/Kathleen Wynne 172 8.5% 3 NDP/Andrea Horwath 117 5.8% 4 Green Party 35 1.7% 5 Other Party 8.4% 6 Did not vote in that election 86 4.3% 7 Not sure/can't say 48 2.4% 1366 67.6% Race Position 76 ARF - Race 1 Caucasian 1744 86.3% 2 Asian 121 6.0% 3 Other Visible Minority 157 7.8% Age Position 77 ARF - Age (3 groups) 1 18-34 453 22.4% 2 35-54 775 38.3% 3 55+ 794 39.3% 29
Age_fine Position 78 ARF - Age (6 groups) 1 18-24 116 5.7% 2 25-34 337 16.7% 3 35-44 259 12.8% 4 45-54 516 25.5% 5 55-64 328 16.2% 6 65+ 466 23.0% age_gender Position 79 ARF - Age/Gender 1 Male 18-34 232 11.5% 2 Male 35-54 386 19.1% 3 Male 55+ 391 19.3% 4 Female 18-34 221 10.9% 5 Female 35-54 389 19.2% 6 Female 55+ 403 19.9% edu Position 80 ARF - Education 1 HS or less 793 39.2% 2 College/ Tech school 660 32.6% 3 Univ+ 569 28.1% income Position 81 ARF - Income 1 <$50K 662 32.7% 2 $50-99K 642 31.8% 3 $100K+ 378 18.7% 4 DK/REF 340 16.8% 30
region Position 82 ARF - Region (Manitoba/Saskatchewan grouped; Atlantic provinces grouped) 1 BC 404 20.0% 2 AB 152 7.5% 3 MB/SK 204 10.1% 4 ON 656 32.4% 5 QC 503 24.9% 6 ATL 103 5.1% region7 Position 83 ARF - Region (Atlantic provinces grouped) 1 BC 404 20.0% 2 AB 152 7.5% 3 SK 102 5.0% 4 MB 102 5.0% 5 ON 656 32.4% 6 QC 503 24.9% 7 ATL 103 5.1% OntReg Position 84 ARF - Ontario Region 1 416 - includes Don, Downtown East, Downtown West, Etobicke, Scarborough, York 133 6.6% 2 905 - includes Brampton, East, Halton, Mississauga, York, North 138 6.8% 3 Hamilton-Niagara 69 3.4% 4 Southwest 142 7.0% 5 East 130 6.4% 6 North 44 2.2% 1366 67.6% 31
Softie Position 85 ARF - Vote Next Certainity 1 Certain CPC 454 22.5% 2 Soft CPC 125 6.2% 3 Certain Lib 413 20.4% 4 Soft Lib 207 10.2% 5 Certain NDP 284 14.0% 6 Soft NDP 139 6.9% 400 19.8% CommunitySize Position 86 ARF - Community Size 1 Vancouver/Toronto/Montreal 609 30.1% 2 Mid sized cities 351 17.4% 3 Rest of Canada 1062 52.5% Cities Position 87 ARF - Cities 1 Vancouver 226 11.2% 2 Rest of BC 178 8.8% 3 Edmonton 47 2.3% 4 Calgary 49 2.4% 5 416 Toronto 133 6.6% 6 905 Toronto 138 6.8% 7 Rest of ON 385 19.0% 8 Montreal 129 6.4% 9 Rest of QC 374 18.5% 363 18.0% 32
CITATION The publishing of analysis and results from research using this data is permitted in research communications such as scholarly papers, journals and the like. Authors of such communications are required to cite the source of the data and to indicate that results or views expressed are those of the author/authorized user. This survey data should be referenced as follows: Angus Reid Institute. Election 2015. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada: Angus Reid Institute [producer]. Data Services, Queen's University [distributor]. Any questions about the data set or its use should be directed to: Data Services, Academic Services Queen s University Library Kingston ON Email: academic.services@queensu.ca http://library.queensu.ca/data 33