Managing migratory flows in the MENA region Jason Gagnon Second Meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Chapter of the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank & IMF 7 November 2017 Rabat, Morocco
The share of migrants in the world is progressively increasing Stock of international migrants, 1990-2015 300 Share of World population International migrant stock 3,4 250 222 244 3,3 3,2 200 150 100 153 161 173 191 3,2 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 50 2,9 2,8 2,8 2,9 2,7 2,6 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2,5 Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
Developed countries are increasingly attracting migrants from developing countries Migrants from developing countries as a share of total migrants 60 50 45 50 44 48 50 54 40 30 36 34 39 36 31 20 21 10 developing => developed developing => developing 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration Remittances as a percentage of GDP (%), 2016 Source: World Bank Annual Remittances Database, Inflows (updated as of October 2017)
How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate An inverse relationship between development and migration? GDP/capita
How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate Economic development does NOT translate into a decrease in emigration At least in the short and medium term GDP/capita
The mobility transition curve in 2010 Note: The sample includes 143 origin countries and 81 destination countries Source: OECD (2016), Perspectives on Global Development 2017
What are the implications of the mobility transition curve in terms of public policies? Emigration rate More trade More FDI More ODA GDP/capita
Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita
Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate Country characteristics (border, language, colonial ties ) Networks Migration policies Sectoral policies (agriculture, labour market, education, social protection ) MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita
Higher public social expenditures reduce the rate of emigration Relation between the share of people planning to emigrate and public social expenditures as a share of GDP Source: OECD (2017), Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration and Development
Public policies and international co-operation can help change the migration trajectory of a country Government employment agencies Vocational training Agricultural subsidies Insurancebased programmes Conditional cash transfers Government subsidies / Tax exemptions Financial training programmes Social protection and health mechanisms
Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In origin countries Emigration acts as a safety valve for the labour market Diasporas are an enabler for social development Remittances represent a source of finance for development Brain circulation helps strengthen human capital & innovation Invest in the development of skills in origin countries to foster the accumulation of human capital Help reduce remittance costs and invest in financial training Fund diaspora projects in countries of origin Develop return programmes oriented towards productive investment
Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In destination countries Immigration helps reduce skills mismatches Immigrants contribute to financing social protection systems Immigrants expand the domestic market Immigration can lead to increased innovation & entrepreneurship Support education and invest in social protection & health services to foster the integration of immigrants in destination countries
Conclusion The objective is not to say that public policies should aim at curbing migration flows But rather give people the option to migrate by choice, not by force This implies generating more opportunities in home countries One major challenge for policy makers is strengthening their public policies It is also important to acknowledge that migration is a driver of development not only in origin, but also in destination countries
2006 The OECD Development Centre s work on migration 2010 2014 2017 2016 2007 2011 2016
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