Managing migratory flows in the MENA region Jason Gagnon Second Meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Chapter of the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank & IMF 7 November 2017 Rabat, Morocco
International migration and development: a challenging context
But also encouraging milestones Global Compact on Safe, Regular and Orderly Migration Global Compact on Refugees
The stock of international migrants has increased by 60% between 1990 and 2015 Stock of international migrants, 1990-2015 Millions 300 Refugees International migrant stock 250 221.7 243.7 200 150 152.6 160.8 172.7 191.3 100 50 0 18.8 17.9 15.8 13.3 15.4 21.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
Yet, international migrants represent a small share of the world population Immigrants 3% 244 million international migrants in 2015 World population
Developed countries are increasingly attracting migrants from developing countries Migrants from developing countries as a share of total migrants 60 50 45 50 44 48 50 54 40 30 36 34 39 36 31 20 21 10 developing => developed developing => developing 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration Emigrants and immigrants as a share of total population (%) Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration Emigrants and immigrants as a share of total population (%) Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration Emigrants and immigrants as a share of total population (%) Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)
How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate An inverse relationship between development and migration? GDP/capita
How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate Economic development does NOT translate into a decrease in emigration At least in the short and medium term GDP/capita
The mobility transition curve in 2010 Note: The sample includes 143 origin countries and 81 destination countries Source: OECD (2016), Perspectives on Global Development 2017
What are the implications of the mobility transition curve in terms of public policies? Emigration rate More trade More FDI More ODA GDP/capita
Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita
Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate Country characteristics (border, language, colonial ties ) Networks Migration policies Sectoral policies (agriculture, labour market, education, social protection ) MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita
Higher public social expenditures reduce the rate of emigration Relation between the share of people planning to emigrate and public social expenditures as a share of GDP Source: OECD (2017), Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration and Development
What is the impact of migration? How can parliamentarians better leverage migration for development outcomes?
In some countries, remittances constitute an important part of GDP Remittances as a percentage of GDP (%), 2016 Source: World Bank Annual Remittances Database, Inflows (updated as of October 2017)
Public policies can help change the migration trajectory of a country Government employment agencies Vocational training Agricultural subsidies Insurancebased programmes Conditional cash transfers Government subsidies / Tax exemptions Financial training programmes Social protection and health mechanisms
Why the interrelation between public policies and migration is important Migration contributes to the development of countries of origin & destination Policy makers do not sufficiently take migration into account in their respective policy areas However, the potential of migration is not yet fully exploited But the overall impact remains limited Sectoral policies affect different migration outcomes
A coherent policy agenda can realise the development potential of migration Do more to integrate migration into development strategies Improve co-ordination mechanisms Strengthen international co-operation
A coherent policy agenda can realise the development potential of migration Do more to integrate migration into development strategies Improve co-ordination mechanisms Strengthen international co-operation
A coherent policy agenda can realise the development potential of migration Do more to integrate migration into development strategies Improve co-ordination mechanisms Strengthen international co-operation
Do more to integrate migration into development strategies Cross-cutting track A twin-track approach Include migration in all relevant sectoral development policies and programmes Targeted track Adopt specific initiatives focused on migration and development Increased contribution of migration to development
Some policy recommendations Expand the territorial coverage and awareness of government employment agencies Adjust vocational training programmes to reflect demand in the labour market and better match demand with supply Include, enforce and increase the conditionality of agricultural aid programmes Enforce conditionality measures in cash-transfer programmes Strengthen compliance with labour regulations to ensure decent working conditions
Improve co-ordination mechanisms Across national authorities Among national & local authorities With non-state actors
Improve co-ordination mechanisms Across national authorities Among national & local authorities With non-state actors
Improve co-ordination mechanisms Across national authorities Among national & local authorities With non-state actors
Strengthen international co-operation Bilateral agreements Basic rights, working conditions and wages Family reunification Social protection and pension portability Regional agreements Regional employment agencies Co-operation among education institutions Regional integration of financial markets Harmonisation of social protection and pensions systems
Strengthen international co-operation Bilateral agreements Basic rights, working conditions and wages Family reunification Social protection and pension portability Regional agreements Regional employment agencies Co-operation among education institutions Regional integration of financial markets Harmonisation of social protection & pensions systems
Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In origin countries Emigration acts as a safety valve for the labour market Diasporas are an enabler for social development Remittances represent a source of finance for development Brain circulation helps strengthen human capital & innovation Invest in the development of skills to foster the accumulation of human capital Help reduce remittance costs and invest in financial training Fund diaspora projects Develop return programmes oriented towards productive investment
Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In destination countries Immigration helps reduce skills mismatches Immigrants contribute to financing social protection systems Immigrants expand the domestic market Immigration can lead to increased innovation & entrepreneurship Support education and invest in social protection & health services to foster the integration of immigrants
Conclusion The objective is not to say that public policies should aim at curbing migration flows But rather give people the option to migrate by choice, not by force This implies generating more opportunities in home countries One major challenge for policy makers is strengthening their public policies It is also important to acknowledge that migration is a driver of development not only in origin, but also in destination countries
2006 The OECD Development Centre s work on migration 2010 2014 2017 2016 2007 2011 2016
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