American Foreign Policy

A 384917 American Foreign Policy Pattern and Process Sixth Edition 'if, ;..*.';. Eugene R. Wittkopf Louisiana State University Charles W. Kegley, Jr. University of South Carolina James M. Scott University of Nebraska at Kearney THOMSON ^ WADSWORTH Australia Canada Mexico Singapore Spain United Kingdom United States

Contents FOCUS BOXES, MAPS, ILLUSTRATIONS, AND TABLES PREFACE ABOUT THE AUTHORS XXVII XXXI XXXVII ANALYTICAL AND THEMATIC PERSPECTIVES ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 1 IN SEARCH OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY: A THEMATIC INTRODUCTION 3 The American Century and Beyond 4 On America's Purposes and Role in the Twenty-First Century: Retrospect and Prospect 8 Toward Explanation 11 Key Terms 12 Suggestions for Further Reading 13 xi

Xii / 2 PATTERN AND PROCESS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY: AN ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVE 14 The Sources of American Foreign Policy 15 Explaining Policy Patterns 16 External Sources 16 Societal Sources 17 Governmental Sources 17 Role Sources. 18 Individual Sources 19 The Multiple Sources of American Foreign Policy 19 Looking Ahead 21 Key Terms 22 Suggestions for Further Reading 22 II PATTERNS OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 23 3 PRINCIPLE, POWER, AND PRAGMATISM: THE GOALS OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 25 Principle and Pragmatism, 1776 1941: Isolationism, Expansionism, and Imperialism 27 Hamilton, Jefferson, and American Continentalism 21 A Nation Apart 28 Isolationism under Siege: Imperialism and Interventionism 30 Isolationism Resurgent: Interwar Idealism and Withdrawal 34 Power and Principle, 1946-1989: Global Activism, Anticommunism, and Containment 37 Internationalism Resurgent 31 The Communist Challenge to American Ideas and Ideals. 39 The Containment of Soviet Influence 40 The Origins of the Cold War: Competing Hypotheses 41 A Conflict of Interests 41 Ideological Incompatibilities 42 Misperceptions 42

XIII America's Containment Strategies: Evolutionary Phases 45 Cold War Confrontation, 1947-1962 47 Competitive Coexistence, 1962-1969 49 Detente, 1969-1979 50 Renewed Confrontation, 1979-1985 52 Renewed Dialogue and the End of the Cold War, 1985-1991 53 The End of the Cold War: Competing Hypotheses 54 In Search of a Rationale: From the 1990s into the Twenty-First Century 55 Promoting Democracy 56 Promoting Open Markets 58 Promoting International Values 59 Promoting Security and Stability 60 Europe-and Beyond? 60 Nonproliferation 61 Low-Intensity Conflict and Neo-Containment 64 A New Problem Agenda? ^ 66 Return to Realism? - 66 Principle, Power, or Pragmatism? 67 Key Terms 69 Suggestions for Further Reading 70 INSTRUMENTS OF GLOBAL INFLUENCE: MILITARY MIGHT AND I NT E R V E N T I O N I S M 73 The Common Defense: Military Globalism and Conventional Forces 74 Conventional Military Power during the Cold War 14 Conventional Military Power for a New Era 11 Military Force and Political Purposes 81 Military Intervention 84 The New Interventionism 86 To Intervene or Not to Intervene? 90 Strategic Doctrine Then and Now: Nuclear Weapons as Instruments of Compellence and Deterrence 93 Strategic Doctrine during America's Atomic Monopoly, 1945 1949 94 Strategic Doctrine under Conditions of Nuclear Superiority, 1949 1960 95

XIV Strategic Doctrine in Transition, 1961-1992 95 From Compellence to Deterrence 96 From Countervalue to Counterforce 97 From Offense to Defense 98 Strategic Doctrine for a New Era 100 Arms Control and National Security 101 From SALT to START 101 Strategic Defense and Arms Control in the New Era 102 Power and Principle: In Pursuit of the National Interest 105 Key Terms 106 Suggestions for Further Reading 107 I INSTRUMENTS OF GLOBAL INFLUENCE: COVERT ACTIVITIES, FOREIGN AID, SANCTIONS, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 109 Covert Intervention: Intelligence Collection and Covert Action 110 The Definition and Types of Covert Action 111 Covert Intervention in the Early Cold War 111 Covert Actions in the 1910s and 1980s 113 In Search of a Rationale: Intelligence and Covert Action beyond the Cold War 114 The War on Drugs 115 Ecojaramic Intelligence 115 Information Warfare and Enviro-Intelligence 116 Targeting States 116 C ounterter rorism 118 Challenges for Covert Intervention in the Twenty-First Century 119 Foreign Assistance: Intervention Without Coercion 120 Economic Assistance 120 Purposes and Programs. 121 Economic Aid in the Cold War 122 Economic Aid into the Twenty-First Century: In Search of a Rationale 124 Military Assistance 121 Purposes and Programs 127 Military Aid during the Cold War 129 From Korea to Vietnam 130 After Vietnam 130 Military Aid into the Twenty-First Century 132

XV Sanctions: Coercion Without Intervention? 135 The Nature and Purposes of Sanctions 135 The Effectiveness of Sanctions 136 The Victims of Sanctions 138 Public Diplomacy: Using Information and Ideas to Intervene 139 Public Diplomacy: Purposes and Programs 139 Public Diplomacy in the Cold War 140 Public Diplomacy in the 1990s 140 Public Diplomacy into the Twenty-First Century 141 Using the Instruments of Global Influence in the Twenty-First Century 142 Key Terms 143 Suggestions for Further Reading 144 III EXTERNAL SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 147 6 PRINCIPLE AND POWER IN A NEW CENTURY: THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SYSTEM IN TRANSITION 149 The Distribution of Power as a Source of American Foreign Policy 150 Multipolarity and the Birth of the American Republic 151 Hegemonic Dominance: A Unipolar World 152 The Bipolar System 153 The Bipolycentric System 154 The Fragmentation of the Atlantic Alliance 154 The Splintering of the Soviet Bloc 155 Toward Multipolarity: A Structural Realist Perspective on the Twenty-First Century 156 The Global South in a New Era and a New Century 161 Along the Demographic Divide: Population and Development 162 Correlates and Consequences of the Demographic Divide 161 Food Security 167 Poverty and Urbanization 167 Emigration and Immigration 168

XVI The Digital Divide 169 Environmental Stress 170 Global Warming 170 Deforestation and Biodiversity 172 International and Intranational Conflict 176 The North-South Divide: Conflict or Cooperation? 177 The Earth Summit and Beyond 118 Population and Development 178 Global Climate Change 179 Biodiversity, Biotechnology, and Deforestation 179 The Foreign Policy Interests and Strategies of the Global South 181 Reform and Resentment 181 Nonalignment and Neglect 182 Sovereign Independence and Intranational and International Challenges to It 183 Transnational Interdependence: Agents of Challenge and Change 186 International Organizations: An Overview 187 International Organizations: The Uneasy U.S.-UN Relationship 187 Multinational Corporations 190 International Regimes 192 Transnational Terrorism, Ethnopolitical Movements, and Trans-Border Criminal Operations 192 American Foreign Policy at the Dawn of a New Century 195 Key Terms 196 Suggestions for Further Reading 197 f THE WORLD POLITICAL ECONOMY IN TRANSITION: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS IN A GLOBALIZING WORLD POLITICAL ECONOMY 199 America's Hegemonic Role in the Liberal International Economic Order: An Overview 201 Hegemonic Stability Theory 202 Beyond Hegemony 203 America's Role in the Management of the International Monetary System 204 Hegemony Unchallenged 204

xvii Hegemony under Stress Hegemony in Decline The Debt Crisis Toward Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Passive Unilateralism, 1981-1985 Pluralistic Cooperation, 1985-1988 The Failure of Pluralistic Cooperation, 1989-1993 Hegemony Resurgent Clinton's First Term Clinton's Second Term Globalization Again The Asian Financial Crisis Toward a New Financial Architecture? America's Role in the Management of the International Trade System An Overview of the International Trade Regime Hegemony Unchallenged On the Periphery in the Global South The Second World Hegemony under Stress The European Union Challenge from the Global South The Second World Again From Free Trade to Fair Trade The Multilateral Venue Aggressive Unilateralism Fair Trade 226 Managed Trade 227 Strategic Trade 229 Globalization Again Regionalism The Politics of U.S. Trade Policy An Outward-Looking, Non-Imperialist, Continental Superpower? Key Terms Suggestions for Further Reading 205 201 208 210 210 211 211 212 212 213 213 214 214 215 216 2r? 217 217 218 218 219 ^ 221 223 223 225 230 231 234 235 236 237

xviii IV SOCIETAL SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 239 8 AMERICANS' VALUES, BELIEFS, AND PREFERENCES: POLITICAL CULTURE AND PUBLIC OPINION IN FOREIGN POLICY 241 America in the Community of Nations: An Exceptional Case?, 243 Political Culture and Foreign Policy 245 The Liberal Tradition 245 Liberalism and American Foreign Policy Behavior 246 Political Culture in a Changing Society 248 Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Overview \ 250 Foreign Policy Opinion and Its Impact 251 The Nature of American Public Opinion 251 Are Interest and Information Important? 253 Foreign Policy Opinions 255 Opinions about Global Activism 256 Opinions about the Costs of Interventionism 257 Foreign Policy Beliefs 251 The Public "Temperament": Permissive, Nationalistic, and Acquiescent 260 - The Politics of Prestige 262 Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Addendum 265 Confidence in Political Leaders and Institutions 265 The Public Opinion Pyramid 266 Political and Sociodemographic Correlates of Foreign Policy Attitudes 267 A Public Impact on American Foreign Policy? 271 Public Opinion as a Constraint on Foreign Policy Innovation 212 Public Opinion as a Stimulus to Foreign Policy Innovation 213 Public Opinion as a Resource in International Bargaining 214 The Opinion-Policy Nexus: Correlation or Causation? 214 Political Culture, Public Opinion, and American Foreign Policy 275 Key Terms 275 Suggestions for Further Reading 276

xix THE TRANSMISSION OF VALUES, BELIEFS, AND PREFERENCES: INTEREST GROUPS, MASS MEDIA, AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 278 Democratic Liberalism in Theory and Practice 279 Does a Power Elite Control American Foreign Policy? 219 Who Is Chosen to Lead? 279 The Council on Foreign Relations 283 The Policy Planning Groups 284 Elite Attitudes and Behavior 285 Does a Military-Industrial Complex Control American Foreign Policy? 286 The Theory.. 286 The Evidence Part I: The Cold War Years 287 The Evidence Part II: Since the Cold War 289 Pork-Barrel Politics and the New Industrial Policy 289 Demise of the Military-Industrial Complex? 291 Do Special Interest Groups Control American Foreign Policy? 294 Types of Interest Groups 295 Interest Groups and Foreign Policy 296 Are Interest Groups Influential? 298 The Politics of Policy Making: Elitism and Pluralism Revisited 299 The Role of the Mass Media in the Opinion-Interest-Policy Process 301 The Mass Media and the Public. 301 Media Inattention to Foreign Affairs 303 Public Inattention to Foreign Affairs 304 The Imperviousness of Beliefs 305 Television's Inadvertent Audience 305 The Internet 306 How Do Attitudes Change? 307 The Mass Media and Policy Makers 301 Policymakers, Policy Influentials, and the Media 308 Media Vulnerability to Government Manipulation 308 The Foreign Policy Agenda and "Press Politics" 311 The Impact of Foreign Policy Attitudes and Issues on Presidential Elections 312 The Electoral Impact of Foreign Policy Issues 312 Foreign Policy and Retrospective Voting 314 Linkages between Societal Sources and American Foreign Policy 315 Key Terms 316 Suggestions for Further Reading 317

XX V GOVERNMENTAL SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 319 10 PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY MAKING 321 The Setting of Presidential Leadership 323 Foreign Affairs and the Constitution 323 The Role of the Courts 325 The Structures of Presidential Leadership 326 The Cabinet 326 The Presidential Subsystem 321 The Chief of Staff 328 The National Security Adviser 329 Organizing for Foreign^Policy: The National Security Council System \ 330 - Institutionalizing the NSC System, 1947-1961 331 Personalizing the Staff, 1961-1969 331 The White House Ascendant, 1969-1989 333 The Nixon Administration 333 The Ford and Carter Administrations 334 The Reagan Administration 335 White House Centralization: The Bush and Clinton Administrations 338 The Past as Prologue 345 Summary: Presidential Leadership and the NSC System 347 s Other Executive Office Functions: Managing Economic Affairs 349 Managing the Budget 349 Managing Economic Policy 350 The Council of Economic Advisors 350 The Office of the United States Trade Representative 350 The National Economic Council 352 Presidential Leadership in the Twenty-First Century 354 Key Terms. 356 Suggestions for Further Reading 357

XXI 11 THE FOREIGN POLICY BUREAUCRACY AND FOREIGN POLICY MAKING 359 The Department of State 360 Structure and Mission 360 The Foreign Service and Its Subculture 362 The State Department in the Foreign Affairs Government 364 Secretaries of State and the State Department 364 Careerists Versus Political Appointees 368 Without Bureaucratic Muscle 369 Twenty-First Century Challenges 369 The Department of Defense 370 Structure and Mission 310 The Secretary of Defense and the Office of the Secretary of Defense 312 Managing the Military: Autonomy Versus Centralization 372 The Policy Shop: The Office of the Secretary of Defense 374 ~~~^ The Joint Chiefs of Staff 316 Twenty-First Century Challenges 318 The Intelligence Community 380 Structure and Mission 380 Intelligence and the Department of Defense 381 Intelligence and the Department of State 384 Intelligence and Other Agencies 384 The Central Intelligence Agency 384 Organization and Responsibilities 385 The CIA and the Management of Intelligence 386 Intelligence Gathering and Analysis 389 Management and Oversight of Covert Actions 393 Economic Agents in a Globaling World 394 Department of the Treasury 395 Department of Commerce 391 Department of Agriculture 398 Department of Labor 399 The Foreign Policy Bureaucracy and the Politics of Policy Making 399 Key Terms 400 Suggestions for Further Reading 401

XXH 12 CONGRESS AND FOREIGN POLICY MAKING 403 The Setting of Congressional Foreign Policy Making 404 The Constitution and Congress 404 Congressional Foreign Policy Actors 405 Avenues of Congressional Foreign Policy Influence 405 Categorizing the Avenues of Influence 406 Direct-Legislative Avenues 406 Direct-Nonlegislative Avenues 408 Indirect-Legislative Avenues 408 Indirect-Nonlegislative Avenues 409 Avenues of Influence in Practice: Treaties, War, and Money 410 Treaties 410 War 414 The War Powers Resolution: Provisions and Dilemmas 414 The War Powers Resolution: Impact and Effectiveness 416 \^ Money 420 Managing Foreign Aid Expenditures 420 Managing Military Expenditures 423 Constraints on the Power of the Purse 425 Obstacles to Congressional Foreign Policy Making 427 Parochialism 421 Organizational Weaknesses 429 Lack of Expertise 431 Congress and the President 433 Phases in the Relationship between Congress and the President 434 The Cold War Phase 434 Post-Vietnam Phase 435 Post-Cold War Phase 436 Bipartisanship and Partisanship 438 Congress and Twenty-First Century Foreign Policy 441 Key Terms 442 Suggestions for Further Reading 442

xxiii VI ROLE SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 445 13 THE PROCESS OF DECISION MAKING: ROLES, RATIONALITY, AND THE IMPACT OF BUREAUCRATIC ORGANIZATIONS 447 Roles as a Source of Foreign Policy 448 Foreign Policy Making as a Rational Process 449 The Rational Actor Model 450 Rationality and Reality: The Limits to Rational Choice 451 Tardy Problem Recognition 451 Inadequate Information 452 Inaccurate Information 452 Deficient Information Gathering 452 Ambiguous National Interests 453 The Constraint of Time Pressure 453 Satisficing 454 Psychological Restraints 454 Administrative Theory and Foreign Policy Rationality 456 The Case Against Bureaucratic Foreign Policy Making 457 Bureaucratic Behavior: Interorganizational Attributes 458 Parochialism ~ 458 Competitiveness 459 Imperialistic Task Expansion 461 Endurance 462 Bureaucratic Behavior: Intraorganizational Attributes 464 Secrecy and Exclusiveness 464 Attitudinal Conformity 464 Deference to Tradition 465 Reliance on Historical Analogies 465 Policy Consequences of Organizational Decision Making 467 Bureaucratic Resistance to Change. 461 Bureaucratic Competition and Foreign Policy Inertia 468 Bureaucratic Sabotage of Presidential Foreign Policy Initiatives 469 Managing Bureaucratic Intransigence 412

XXIV Compartmentalized Policy Making and Foreign Policy Inconsistency 414 Bureaucratic Pluralism and Foreign Policy Conflict and Compromise 416 Other Effects of Bureaucratic Decision Making 411 Roles and the Process of Decision Making: Credits and Debits 480 Key Terms 481 Suggestions for Further Reading 481 VII INDIVIDUALS AS SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 483 14 LEADER CHARACTERISTICS AND FOREIGN POLICY PERFORMANCE 485 Individuals as a Source of Foreign Policy 486 Individuals and Foreign Policy Performance 486 Psychobiography: Personal Characteristics and Foreign Policy Behavior 481 John F. Kennedy 487 Henry A. Kissinger 488 Presidential Character: Types and Consequences 488 Woodrow Wilson 489 Warren G. Harding 489 Harry S. Truman 490 Dwight D. Eisenhower 490 Lyndon B. Johnson 490 Richard M. Nixon 490 Gerald R. Ford 490 Jimmy Carter 490 Ronald Reagan 491 George H. W. Bush 491 Bill Clinton 491 George W. Bush 493 Leadership and the Impact of Leadership Styles. 496 The Impact of Individuals' Personahty and Cognitive Characteristics 500 John Foster Dulles and the Soviet Union 502 Other Examples 503

XXV Limits on the Explanatory Power of Individual Factors 505 When Are Individual Factors Influential? 506 Do Policy-Making Elites and Politicians Have Similar Personality Profiles? 509 Do Individuals Make a Difference? Psychological Limits on Policy Change 509 Additional Restraints on Individual Initiative and Policy Innovation 511 The Questionable Utility of the "Hero-in-History" Thesis 512 Key Terms 513 Suggestions for Further Reading 513 VIM PATTERN AND PROCESS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 515 15 AT THE DAWN OF A NEW MILLENIUM: THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY 517 Toward a Second American Century: What to Do with American Primacy? 518 How Best to Protect and Enhance American Security and Interests? 519 What Are the Threats the United States Faces? 523 How Do Others See American Primacy? 524 American Leadership: Coercive or Benevolent Hegemony? 526 The Sources of American Foreign Policy: Continuity or Change? 529 Individuals as Sources of American Foreign Policy 531 Roles as Sources of American Foreign Policy 532 Governmental Sources of American Foreign Policy 534 Societal Sources of American Foreign Policy 536 External Sources of American Foreign Policy 540 The Problematic Future: A Second American Century? 544 Key Terms 545 Suggestions for Further Reading 545 REFERENCES 547 GLOSSARY 599 INDEX 611