May You Live in Interesting Times

2016-2017: Teflon Don TRUMP FREE TO DO WHAT NO PRIOR PRESIDENT WOULD EVER CONSIDER No policy is off the table Impose tariffs, terminate trade deals Negotiations with N. Korea Move U.S. embassy to Jerusalem Travel ban Propose arming teachers Self-Imposed Defeats Any one of which would be calamitous for another President o Tweets o Leaks o Stormy Daniels o Investigations (NYC real estate; Russia meddling)

2018: What Happened? BLUE WAVE RED WALL 4

2018: What Happened? BLUE WAVE RED WALL 5

2018 House Election What Happened? LOW PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING DURING MIDTERM ELECTION House seats lost by President s party 6

2018 House Election What Happened? DEMS DOMINATED URBAN & SUBURBAN DISTRICTS Dems won 22/25 Districts that voted for Clinton in 2016 Moderates are first to fall in backlash elections against extremism Weeded out weak members who hadn t faced serious challenge for years Many moderate senior Republicans retired, anticipating wave Question how many suburban districts can be retained by Dems 7

2018 House Election What Happened? EVERYDAY, KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES Democratic candidates displayed message discipline, focusing on health care. Republicans chose to air ads emphasizing tax cuts and aligning with President Trump 8

2018 House Election What Happened? A GREAT ECONOMY WILL NOT GUARANTEE REELECTION Lowest Unemployment in 49 years (3.7%) Fastest Wage Growth in 10 years (all incomes, 3.1%) Highest Consumer Confidence in 18 years Fastest GDP Growth in 4 years More Very Satisfied With the Economy in Nov. 2018 (28%) than in 1998 (27%) or any prior midterm polled 9

Low Midterm Turnout Favors Republicans VOTER TURNOUT AS A PERCENTAGE OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS 10

It s All About Trump RECORD 2/3 VOTERS SENDING A MESSAGE ABOUT PRESIDENT 11

2018 Senate Election What Happened? TOP SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS WERE IN TRUMP COUNTRY Dems were defending 8/12 states; Trump had won 10/12 states in 2016 Trump net job approval was positive in 9/12 states (## shown below) 12

2018 Senate Election What Happened? PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL BY OWN PARTY DURING 1 st MIDTERM ELECTION 13

2018 Senate Election What Happened? BETTING MARKETS SAW BLASEY-FORD ALLEGATIONS AS INFLECTION POINT 14

Geographic Divide of House 157 OF 235 HOUSE DEMS COME FROM EAST OR WEST COAST 16

House Reflects Demographic Divide on Voting GEOGRAPHY & EDUCATION FASTEST GROWING DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDES 17

New Faces in Congress BIGGEST DEMOCRATIC HOUSE WAVE SINCE WATERGATE House Freshman Class: 116th Congress has a record-breaking number of women: 125 19 of them are Republican 18

Celebrity Freshman HOST OF NEW MEMBERS WITH POWER OF ENTHUSIASTIC FOLLOWING 19

Diminishing Appetite for Compromise in Congress AGGRESSIVE OVERSIGHT OF ADMINISTRATION WILL STRAIN RELATIONS 20

Diminishing Appetite for Compromise in Congress FREQUENCY AS A PERCENTAGE OF ALL NON-UNANIMOUS VOTES TAKES Congress 21

State AGs Take Fill Void Left by Congress IMMIGRATION, TAX, NET NEUTRALITY, ENERGY, ACA, CONSCIENCE Multistate Lawsuits Against the Administration Source: Prof. Paul Nollete, Marquette U. https://paulnolette.com 22

Trump vs Who? LARGE NUMBER OF PRIMARY CANDIDATES CAN CREATE PROBLEMS A large pool of declared Democratic candidates Cory Booker (Senator for NJ) Pete Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, IN) Julian Castro (Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama) John Delaney (House Representative for MD) Tulsi Gabbard (House Representative for HI) Kirsten Gillibrand (Senator for NY) Kamala Harris (Senator for CA) Amy Klobuchar (Senator for MN) Bernie Sanders (Senator for VT) Elizabeth Warren (Senator for MA) Still considering Joe Biden (Former VP) Beto O-Rourke (Former House Representative for TX) Sherrod Brown (Senator from Ohio) Stacey Abrams (Former GA Gov candidate) Michael Bennet (Senator from CO) Michael Bloomberg (former NYC mayor) Terry McAuliffe (Former VA Governor) Eric Holder (Former Attorney General) 24

Can Trump Win Again? IT LOOKS BAD FOR HIM NOW - IT LOOKED BAD FOR HIM IN 2016 Democrats successful message discipline in 2018 is now challenged by Large Democratic Presidential primary field, running hard to the left Progressive Freshman House members with social media grassroots following Conundrum for Democrats Generate and sustain base enthusiasm in wide open progressive primary, but don t run so far to the left that moderate voters few Trump as a safer alternative to even more drastic change Conundrum for Trump Animate base with red meat cultural issues, but moderate on substance to let Democratic Presidential candidates in contrast appear too radical for America Permit Republican Govs and Sens to slightly distance themselves from President, but discourage a primary challenge. Every recent primary challenge of an incumbent President has failed, but has led to incumbent party losing general election (Bush 41, Carter, Ford, LBJ) 25

2020 Presidential Electoral College 270 REQUIRED TO WIN - SOME PREDICTIONS ARE ALREADY SAFE 26

Chasing the Obama-Trump Swing Voter 2020 VICTORY RUNS THROUGH THE RUST BELT 27

2020 Senate Map Again Favors Republicans 22 REPUBLICAN SEATS AND 12 DEMOCRATIC SEATS 2 Dem seats are in Trump states (AL & MI) 2 Rep seats are in Clinton states (CO & ME) Republicans hold 3 seat advantage in 2019 28

A Lot Can Happen in 613 Days... EXTERNAL EVENTS, DEVELOPMENTS CAN SWING MOMENTUM 29