Modern Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Strategies Dr. Boaz Ganor Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter Terrorism, Founder & Executive Director, ICT The International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Deputy Dean, Lauder School of Government, Herzliya, Israel, The Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel Email: ganor@idc.ac.il, Web: www.ict.org.il
Explanatory Disciplines To Terrorism Agro-terrorism Psychology Terrorism as a psychological warfare Terrorism radicalization process Public resilience to terrorism Terrorism and the IHL Terrorism as a crime Democratic Dilemmas Cyber Terrorism Law Media & Economics The economic implication of terrorism Terrorism fundraising Terrorism Media and public Communication opinion. Terrorism and the new media Terrorist criminal activity Political Punishment policy Science Terrorism as a warfare Modern terrorism strategy Counter terrorism strategies Democratic Dilemmas in CT
Who are the Perpetrators?
State Involvement Terror Attack Perpetrators Conduct Initiation Support Proxy Terrorist Organization Organized Attacks Personal Initiative Attacks Direct Attacks Indirect Attacks Initiation Support Proxy External Cell Group Local Sleeper Cell Local Network Group Individual Lone Wolf
Terrorist Cells as Social Networks Node Matrix Hub - Clique Hub Chain Local Network Group
Classification of Terrorist Organizations and Cells Terrorism Military Hierarchical Terrorist Organization Decentralized Terrorist Organization Hybrid Terrorist Organization Clique Hub Terrorist Organizations Alliance Local Network / Sleeper Cell Lone Wolfe
Different types of attacks
Lone Wolf Local Network Local Sleeper Cell External Cell Type of Terrorist Attacks Threats Cold Weapon Shooting Assaults Ambush, Killing- Journey Bombing Attacks Time, Remote, Suicide Extortion Hostage Kidnappings CBRN Food Water Cyber
Terrorism Decision Making
Decision making intersections within a terrorist organization Leaders Activists Establishing Terror Organization Managing the Organization Initiating Attacks Termination Of Terrorism Supporting Passive Active Joining Terrorism As the sole or Main Activity Non-violent Political Activity Terrorism Combined with Social- Political Activity Violent Political Activity Finance Structure Hierarchal Organizations Terrorism Social Network Non-conventional CBRN Guerilla Warfare Cyber Protest Perpetrating Terrorism Administrative Activity Level of Involvement Conventional Attack Boycott Suicide Attack State Sponsorship Criminal Activity Terrorist Extortion Commercial Activity Donations Level of risk
Counter Terrorism
Counter Terrorism Dilemmas: What is effective counter terrorism? The terrorism equation and the Boomerang effect
Terrorism = Motivation X operational capability Deterrence Effective Military Offensive Activity Non-Effective Military Offensive Activity Counter Motivation Measures: Propaganda Education Welfare A C A C D B Effective Military Offensive Activity + Counter Motivation Measures. Terror level Motivation Operational capability Short Term Influence Influence at the long term
Boomerang Effect L I M I T I N G F A C T O R Motivation Operational Capability (? ) ( - ) Decrease ( + ) ( - )
Counter Terrorism Decision Making
CT Decision Making- American leader s world View Framing External Factors Economic Situation Magnitude & Characteristics of Terrorism Intelligence information Public Opinion Media Political Party Friends & Family Defense DHS International Processes & Events Security Situation Foreign Affairs Government Decision Maker Offices World View Decision Decision Maker Maker Ideology Friends Education (head of State) Advisors (head of of State) Beliefs & Values Pentagon Static Factors CIA FBI Political Situation NSA MI
World View + _ Defining the enemy Policy Eradication of Terrorism Damage Control Prevention of escalation Operational Prism Effectiveness Cost / Benefits (in case of success and failure) Counter Terrorism Decision Making Adopting a strategy Policy Setting Goals Choosing Tools Offensive measures Punitive measures Defensive measures Intelligence measures Legal measures Legal Prism _ IHL State s Legislation Values +